:::December STRATEGY thread:::

JOEBOB69

JOEBOB69

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Apr 5, 2009
Total posts
4,681
Chips
0
It used to be paired flops were very good to cbet with,example 885 etc.Last few months it seems to be a trend to raise-c\r these flops vs a cbet.I'm seeing it a lot with all sort of villains tags\lags but mostly regs.So my question is how do we combat this?Cbet less an just give up on flops seems week to me but idk.
 
micromachine

micromachine

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Total posts
5,770
Chips
0
It used to be paired flops were very good to cbet with,example 885 etc.Last few months it seems to be a trend to raise-c\r these flops vs a cbet.I'm seeing it a lot with all sort of villains tags\lags but mostly regs.So my question is how do we combat this?Cbet less an just give up on flops seems week to me but idk.

If it really is happening enough not to make the cbet profitable then maybe you should avoid cbetting these flops (vs these regs at least) until you have identified exactly who is doing it. On the plus side, when you do flop trips you can shove it back in their faces!
 
micromachine

micromachine

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Total posts
5,770
Chips
0
HUD setup

I'm still trying to decide how to set-up my HUD.

At the moment I have something quite simple, just one line:

(hands), VPIP, PFR, AfQ, 3bet, Foldto3bet

But I want to add more. I'm thinking of adding as new lines:

FlopC-bet, FoldtoFlopC-bet, FoldtoTurnC-bet, Steal%
new line
WTSD, W$SD

Are there any others I am missing?
How can I use these new stats? Like what are exploitable values etc?
How long does each one take to converge?
Is there a better way to organise the HUD?

Thanks, and sorry for so many questions! :eek:
 
Cafeman

Cafeman

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 12, 2011
Total posts
3,200
Chips
0
I've just installed HM2, so I'm also reviewing my HUD. Not sure where to go at the moment, but I think I'll be putting a bit more of it in the popups (for example, vs Hero stats and all the by street stuff).

Yours is looking good, but you might consider adding Turn cbet to it? This can be especially useful when looking for floating opportunities. Extreme example of fit or fold weak tight reg: Fcbet = 85%, Tcbet = 33%. Similar to the way you look to double barrel those with a low FoldtoFcbet but high FoldtoTcbet.

EDIT: also where's your FBB or FTS stat?
 
micromachine

micromachine

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Total posts
5,770
Chips
0
FBB = Fold big blind??
FTS = Fold to steal??

Are these not kind-of covered by the VPIP/PFR ratio (how likely they are to call) and the 3bet% (how likely they are to reraise)?

Yeah turn c-bet could be good..

It's really hard to decide on the organization of it and what to put on each line!

(hands), VPIP, PFR, AfQ, steal%
3bet, foldto3bet, FlopCbet, foldtoFlopCbet
TurnCbet, foldtoTurnCbet, WTSD, W$SD

...might work, then we deal with the turn onwards on the third line only.

How many hands would you say it takes for line 3 stats to converge?
 
Cafeman

Cafeman

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 12, 2011
Total posts
3,200
Chips
0
FBB/FTS is more positional than just looking at the differences between VPIP and PFR in conjunction with how often they 3bet in total. Also I tend to look at tendencies by street a LOT in the pop ups. Someone may flat a tonne on the button but fold almost always OOP. 3bet% I'm the same, some weird positional tendencies show up when you look at it by street. So as a rough and ready guide to how successful your steal will be I just have FBB showing on the HUD.

Spose it's similar to why we have ATS on the HUD. They may be running 22/19 but have an ATS of 48, which means (logically) they are opening a LOT tighter UTG than from the CO/BTN.

As for convergence, I dunno, but I tend to start paying more attention to those line 3 stats when I play against regs.
 
micromachine

micromachine

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Total posts
5,770
Chips
0
OK well decided to go for this setup in the end:

(hands), VPIP, PFR, AfQ, steal%
3bet, foldto3bet, FlopCbet, foldtoFlopCbet
TurnCbet, foldtoTurnCbet, WTSD, W$SD

And here is how it looks on the screen, seems good now I reduced all the font sizes to 9 rather than 10.

As for convergence, I think the middle line stats take a few hundred hands and the third line stats prob take a few thousand hands cos I have 300 hands on some where the TurnCbet is still N/A (0/0).

Screen shot 2011 12 09 at 91753 AM
 
micromachine

micromachine

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Total posts
5,770
Chips
0
This happened to me twice :eek: last night ffs (losing with best FH vs quads).

Should I have just called the 0.85 river bet??

The villain was 42/6 over 80 hands.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($8.61)
MP ($4.27)
Hero (Button) ($6.73)
SB ($5)
BB ($6.42)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A
diamond.gif
, K
club.gif

UTG calls $0.05, MP calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.20, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.62) 10
diamond.gif
, J
spade.gif
, K
heart.gif
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.59, UTG raises to $1.18, Hero calls $0.59

Turn: ($2.98) 10
spade.gif
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.98) 10
heart.gif
(2 players)
UTG bets $0.85, Hero raises to $3.12, UTG raises to $5.39, Hero calls $2.18 (All-In)

Total pot: $13.58 | Rake: $0.67

Results:
Hero had A
diamond.gif
, K
club.gif
(full house, tens over Kings).
UTG had J
heart.gif
, 10
club.gif
(four of a kind, tens).
Outcome: UTG won $12.91
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Nov 7, 2007
Total posts
22,973
Chips
0
This happened to me twice :eek: last night ffs (losing with best FH vs quads).

Should I have just called the 0.85 river bet??

The villain was 42/6 over 80 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($8.61)
MP ($4.27)
Hero (Button) ($6.73)
SB ($5)
BB ($6.42)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A
diamond.gif
, K
club.gif

UTG calls $0.05, MP calls $0.05, Hero bets $0.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.20, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.62) 10
diamond.gif
, J
spade.gif
, K
heart.gif
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.59, UTG raises to $1.18, Hero calls $0.59

Turn: ($2.98) 10
spade.gif
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.98) 10
heart.gif
(2 players)
UTG bets $0.85, Hero raises to $3.12, UTG raises to $5.39, Hero calls $2.18 (All-In)

Total pot: $13.58 | Rake: $0.67

Results:
Hero had A
diamond.gif
, K
club.gif
(full house, tens over Kings).
UTG had J
heart.gif
, 10
club.gif
(four of a kind, tens).
Outcome: UTG won $12.91
Slightly bigger preflop (.30) and once he leads the river do you think he call a raise with a Jack?
 
micromachine

micromachine

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Total posts
5,770
Chips
0
Slightly bigger preflop (.30) and once he leads the river do you think he call a raise with a Jack?

He seemed like a fish based on his stats, and I think the small river bet threw me a bit making me think his hand was worse than mine, and could include things like AQ and Jx or even lower PPs. Should've just called it I know.

What do you think about a min-raise to 1.70, with the intention of folding if he shoves? Maybe that would get value out of worse and let me know if he has the T.
 
taaron

taaron

Visionary
Silver Level
Joined
Aug 10, 2011
Total posts
716
Chips
0
Its a crappy spot tbh; and your hand vs. random has good equity; you have the gut shot w/ at least 8 additional "potentional" outs, which makes it hard to fold the flop, and villains c/r. The villain is never folding here imo, w/ 2pair.

If you make the pre-flop larger, then cbet the flop, i like checking the turn (which u did); so that river is just a cooler, good for him, flopping 3 to make quad O.O
But Idk if villain leads river w/ only MP, I like (villains) little value bets like this, to induce a call or raise, I think villain played this hand well post flop. I'm on the lookout for lines like this in the future.
 
Top