comfort level benchmark

[pogreshilly]

(starting chips)*(no. of entrants) gives you total chips in play

(total chips in play)/(no. of players ITM) gives you the average chip stack once everyone is ITM

So, if there are 1,000 entrants who get 2,000 chips each that's 2,000,000 chips. If there are 100 winners that's an average of 20,000 chips per player once all the players left are ITM.

This suggests that your target at the start of that particular tournament should be 20,000 chips. Once you reach 20,000 chips, no matter what stage of the tourney you're at, you should be reasonably assured of making it ITM. 20,000 chips is your "comfort level."

So what's wrong with my analysis?

 

[BelgoSuisse]

the chip distribution among the ITM players close to the bubble is usually very uneven and therefore you typically need a lot less that your "comfort level" to place. But of course placing ITM is not really the goal with top-heavy payout structures. You want to be as close to 1st place as possible.

I usually just rely on the current average chip stack at any stage of the tournament to determine whether I should feel comfortable or not.

 

[dj11]

Your analysis suggests you could stack 9 players in the first few hands hands, then leave for a night on the town.

Problem is the blinds will get you in a field of 1000 players. While that 20K chips could get you close, it is doubtful it would get you ITM.

HOWEVER! If you were to get to that point about halfway through the 2nd hour, you would very likely get to the money. Albeit the lowest levels of payouts.

A much better method is to stay alive through the 2nd break, and aim for that 20K during the 3rd hour.

But the answer to your original question is that you do not take into consideration the blinds.