Cash Convert and Hand Help

[wetyeti]

Hey all
Recently I posted about switching from SnG to cash for various reasons. I have some straight forward goals I'd like to attain. One goal is to mark certain hands and post for analysis. Trying to mark at least 5 per session.
Here are two hands that I played very similarly:

pokerstars Game #42952187615: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2010/04/20 14:07:27 PT [2010/04/20 17:07:27 ET]
Table 'Anser IV' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: pmaragon ($12.70 in chips)
Seat 2: Khilone ($7.15 in chips)
Seat 3: matsyendra ($9.25 in chips)
Seat 4: classik33 ($10.85 in chips)
Seat 5: knati ($7.75 in chips)
Seat 6: Stjef ($9.75 in chips)
Seat 7: TMichaelT ($11.45 in chips)
Seat 8: Pedan ($5.15 in chips)
Seat 9: practi ($14.20 in chips)
knati: posts small blind $0.05
Stjef: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to matsyendra [Ac Jc]
TMichaelT: calls $0.10
Pedan: folds
practi: folds
pmaragon: folds
Khilone: raises $0.30 to $0.40
matsyendra: calls $0.40
classik33: folds
knati: folds
Stjef: folds
TMichaelT: calls $0.30
*** FLOP *** [6d 2c 5c]
TMichaelT: checks
Khilone: bets $0.50
matsyendra: raises $8.35 to $8.85 and is all-in
TMichaelT: folds
Khilone: folds
Uncalled bet ($8.35) returned to matsyendra
matsyendra collected $2.25 from pot
matsyendra: doesn't show hand


PokerStars Game #42953268915: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2010/04/20 14:29:48 PT [2010/04/20 17:29:48 ET]
Table 'Tamriko III' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: steffen78 ($9.55 in chips)
Seat 3: validol77 ($28.85 in chips)
Seat 5: matsyendra ($10.85 in chips)
Seat 6: zuckerman286 ($10.15 in chips)
Seat 8: Stjef ($13.85 in chips)
Seat 9: VerbalKint84 ($10.90 in chips)
muuseas will be allowed to play after the button
Stjef: posts small blind $0.05
VerbalKint84: posts big blind $0.10
Lenrash: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to matsyendra [Tc 9c]
steffen78: folds
validol77: folds
matsyendra: raises $0.20 to $0.30
zuckerman286: folds
zuckerman286 leaves the table
Stjef: raises $0.65 to $0.95
VerbalKint84: folds
matsyendra: calls $0.65
*** FLOP *** [3d 7c 8c]
Stjef: checks
PeWu68 joins the table at seat #6
matsyendra: bets $9.90 and is all-in
Stjef: folds
Uncalled bet ($9.90) returned to matsyendra
matsyendra collected $1.90 from pot
matsyendra: doesn't show hand

In both hands I was in the CO. In both hands my reads on the players behind me were tight. I had been pressuring the blinds quite a bit and they were giving up without much fight. The open limper in the AJ hand surprised me by calling. I was planning on cbetting post flop.

In the T9 hand I was raising pf on a pure steal. The reraise from the SB gave me something to think about. The SBs HUD stats were crazy tight so I considered folding. I decided to call for 2 reasons.
1) I did not want this player to think he could defend his blind by raising me out pf. I had been attacking his blinds a lot on 2 tables and wanted to keep it that way.
2) I thought I could outplay him postflop.

My conundrum is this: Shoving all in on a flop this I have heard is a good move. On both hands I have 15 outs (right?) so Im about 50% to make my hand. On the T9 hand I am not so sure on this shove, my flush is dead to a higher flush and I only have T high. On the AJ hand I am more comfortable with this move and had done it several times in this session.
Which brings me to consider how predictable this play may become. I would fall prey to any setmining and if someone is paying attention, they may see that I may doing this a lot and call me rather light.
Just trying to stick my goals.
Thanks everyone.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Why are you shoving?

Your hands are too valuable to push people out. A normal sized 3-bet would work very well in the 1st hand.

Why are we ever calling a 3bet with T9s? This type of "play" will cost you a ton of money long term. Just fold and stop trying to outplay tight players who will just give you their blinds 90% of the time. You don't have to win every pot.

 

[wetyeti]

I'm shoving because....um, well, Im not a great player but Im trying to be. I dont know how to build a pot yet I guess.

The T9 play is horrible. After I read your post about calling a 3bet with T9 I see how poor of a play that is and how expensive that will be.

 

[edogg503]

just got to choose your spots and it depends on the players your playing against

 

[Grinder101]

Actually on the second one I would've played it more slowly, since you have more outs and a bigger chance to win the hand. it's true you're dead against a higher flush draw, but the chance is quite low and if you play the hand more slowly you might have a chance to find out.
Anyway I don't think either play is that awful, especially against tight players, but the turn and river are fun streets to play too.

 

[Ubercroz]

Post these maybe in hand analysis?

 

[wetyeti]

Yes
Definitely belongs in hand analysis. I'll put these there from now on.
Thanks everyone

 

[ComplexPlaya]

OK since noone has explained fully I will, it is a huge leak to shove like that.

Let's take hand 2, where you the pot size was $1.90 and your shove $9.90. Let's add 10 cents for simplicity, so assume pot size was $2 and your bet $10. Disregard your cards and the flop, also the 3-bet situation, as this applies to any situation where you would want to fold your villain.

Let's compare betting a standard 3/4 pot, namely $1.50 to your $10. And assume you lose every time he calls, again for simplicity.

If you do this 10 hands, and the other guy folds 5 times, you would be risking $15 to win $20, so if he folds just 5 times out of 10 you win $10, and lose $7.5 for the 5 times he called, making you a $2.5 profit.

On the other hand, same 10 hands, if you bet $10 and win it 5 times, you risk $100 to win $20, so in those 5 times you still win $10 but you lose $50 the times he calls, for a net loss of $-40. Even if he called just twice every 10 times, you would still be $-6.

Compared to the $2.5 profit earlier it doesn't look too good does it? You would need him to fold almost 85% of the time for you not to lose money, which is just not going to happen. Even if it did happen, you would be winning much much less because of the times he called you, though I guarantee you would lose alot.

Apart from the pure numbers, a shove like that is a sure sign of a bluff or weak hand - 2nd pair or draw actually, I like to call in those situations.

Now this applies to any betting situation in general, but I think you don't know your hand strength many times.

For your hand in particular, you said the SB was a tight player, so let's assume he 3-bets 5% of the times, that makes his range 99+,AJs+,KQs,AKo. If he is even a little positionally aware it's even stronger than that.

You have a straight flush draw, that is 59% against that range, meaning you are a clear favorite, and he is an underdog even with AA! You would actually want to get all your chips in here, so shoving to fold him is just wasting money further.