$2,700-1/2 roll... Buy-in strategy suggestions?

[Spades47]

IPlay, I have about 10 years experience, although my play has been very sporadic over those 10 years. I've had good enough results to make me feel comfortable with this decision, even though, I definitely have other wants with which the money would be well spent.

 

[xdeucesx]

This is a disaster in the making tbh. A few things about playing for income:

- You need to be playing with 100bb, especially at the 1/2 level where rake is brutal. You should never be playing short stacked; it'll sink your win rate dramatically

- It's widely recommended to have 6 months of living expenses + 50 buy ins saved up before you start playing for a living. You're going to have downswings you didn't even know were possible.

- What are your current results/win rate? It takes a large sample size to know how successful you can be. If you don't have 1.5k hours (others recommend 2k) or more with a comfortable win rate, you don't know how much you will win (or lose).

To expand on one of the points above, $2700 is definitely not even close to enough if you're going to be using that money in any capacity. You're going to have losing weeks and months no matter how well you play, so $2700 is really pushing it. At best you'll be living "paycheck to paycheck."

Please read this, then re-read it and follow the advice so you don't go up in flames.



Edit: but if you decide to ignore it all, please document the destruction at least.

 

[Spades47]

8) Not saying that can't happen. But the revolution will not be televised. I haven't tracked my results, but feel very confident at 1/2. I'm on disability so my life expenses are taken care of.

 

[Karozi615]

If you had all your moving expenses and life expenses easily accounted for, we could probably help you get an idea of how to approach the 1/2 game wit 2,700$, it is doable. However, without the other things in order a life bust is inevitable and I strongly advise saving more for a "rainy day" poker aside.

If you have 2,700$ allocated for 1/2 and your a good player beating the live game shouldn't be a problem. Barring a catastrophic run bad you should be able to sustain yourself.

 

[IPlay]

8) Not saying that can't happen. But the revolution will not be televised. I haven't tracked my results, but feel very confident at 1/2. I'm on disability so my life expenses are taken care of.

So you don't track your results, plan on buying in short and can't even calculate your potential hourly but you are going to move across the country alone to be a pro poker player? I would say I don't recommend this but you won't listen anyway so good luck!

 

[Spades47]

8) @ Iplay

Karozi, I should have more like $2,500 and yes that's with everything taken care of and my monthly living expenses are covered through disability pay. If you were in my position, would you play the 1/1, 50-150 buyin game for a couple months until you have about $4k for the 1/2? (This is what I've been thinking I should do) Or would you just start with 1/2? If so, what would your buy-in strategy be? Appreciate it.

 

[Mr Sandbag]

Can you explain your logic? $2 vs $3 in pot preflop and avg. raise like I said previously is $7-$10, most 1/2 raises pre are I'd say $9-$14 maybe. I am very confident playing 1/2 and would say my hourly there is at the very least $15. The stack ratio is only $50-$150 so playing against short stacks isn't the same as at other limits.

Rake and stack sizes. The lower the stakes, the more harmful the rake in a casino. 1/1 is almost certainly going to be littered with short stacks, which will eat into your win rate considerably. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if there were players out there who would say 1/1 is actually unbeatable over the long haul.

Also, it is troubling that you don't have any tracked results or real volume. The only evidence you have that you can play for a living is that you are "confident in your game." That's not good enough. IMO you need about 1k hours to know if you're a winner and closer to 2k hours to know an approximate win rate.

Moving to play poker for a living would be the equivalent of accepting a job offer without knowing if it's a salaried position or an unpaid internship.

 

[Spades47]

I agree w/you that the rake 10% up to $4 isn't great but like I said in my first reply, stack sizes range from $50-$150 so obviously isn't as detrimental to win rate as the bigger games. Plus, it's the lowest live stakes in Atlantic City equating worse play. I feel the game is plenty beatable. Here's some anecdotes.

"I was up there yesterday and yea it only started like a week ago and it is the softest game probably on the planet. If your on a budget there is a lot of money to be made in these games. Even though it's 1 1 most pre flop raises and calls were in the double digets."

" I played the 1/1 game Monday evening. There was one game running at 5:30pm that stayed full. The waiting list started filling up when people started getting knocked out of the 7pm tournament. Good game for anyone who dosn't have a comfortable bankroll for 1/2-1/3. Very soft play same comp rate as 2/4LHE."

"I played the 1-1 last thursday night, it was pretty much a donkfest as expected. They didnt get the game going until around 7 pm and it ran until about 1 am. I would expect they get it going pretty regularly on the weekend."


But anyway, I think I'll be ok. I'm confident for a reason... but if things don't work out it's only $2,500. I've lost 4x that in day.

 

[tbdbitl]

I agree w/you that the rake 10% up to $4 isn't great

This is probably the best rate I've seen in a while. Most that I've seen are going higher than that and have a JP drop on top of that.