Value Bet this River?

[bw07507]

Only 16 hands in.

Villain is 37.5/12.5/.25

Im 16/11/infinity

pokerstars GAME #15890175703: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/03/10 - 20:32:28 (ET)
Table 'Euanthe' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: NotiXxX ($5.40 in chips)
Seat 2: Albert Zhuli ($16.30 in chips)
Seat 3: KidPoker884 ($16.35 in chips)
Seat 4: carbalas ($42.60 in chips)
Seat 5: HSVJobig ($6.05 in chips)
Seat 6: comandanteM ($24.15 in chips)
Seat 7: Sathok ($25.25 in chips)
Seat 9: bw07507 ($25 in chips)
HSVJobig: posts small blind $0.10
comandanteM: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [Ks Kh]
Sathok: folds
bw07507: raises $0.75 to $1
NotiXxX: calls $1
Albert Zhuli: calls $1
KidPoker884: folds
carbalas: calls $1
HSVJobig: folds
comandanteM: folds
*** FLOP *** [5c 2h Ts]
bw07507: bets $3
NotiXxX: folds
Albert Zhuli: folds
carbalas: calls $3
*** TURN *** [5c 2h Ts] [Jh]
bw07507: bets $6.50
carbalas: calls $6.50
*** RIVER *** [5c 2h Ts Jh] [4d]
bw07507: ?

Is this a clear value bet here? I am thinking a river bet probably commits me if villain shoves where as if I check, villain might bluff with something worse. Or should I be check/calling here where as villain might stab at this with nothing, netting me more profit and also limiting my losses when he really does have a hand.

 

[ChuckTs]

Always against this type of opponent imo. If he's got a set or JT or something like that, it's unlucky and only a small part of his range. Tx, 66-99, maybe even A5 will look you up.

 

[KingCurtis]

i agree with ChuckTs even a min bet here and youll get a call even a small kicker J may reraise to think your bluffing and more money is then availabel

 

[Jillychemung]

What size bet? $7-$8 or $4 or ?? And what do we do if he shoves over it? My inclination is to call.

 

[blankoblanco]

Is this a clear value bet here? I am thinking a river bet probably commits me if villain shoves where as if I check, villain might bluff with something worse. Or should I be check/calling here where as villain might stab at this with nothing, netting me more profit and also limiting my losses when he really does have a hand.

you have to read into the action of the hand. what flatcalls both the flop and turn that now has a bluffing hand? the answer is virtually nothing. players don't often turn made hands into bluffs here (at least not on purpose), and they don't float two streets with air to try and bluff it on the river

definitely value bet, a size that you think a T will call. $12-$14 or whatever, call if he shoves even though it sucks, because you'll be getting five billion to one and he's pretty likely a bad player

 

[F Paulsson]

definitely value bet, a size that you think a T will call. $12-$14 or whatever, call if he shoves even though it sucks, because you'll be getting five billion to one and he's pretty likely a bad player

Combuboom's heart is in the right place, but his numbers are not. When you have $14.50 left in your stack, you don't really want to bet $12.

Push.

And yes, I agree with the consensus; this is no time to overthink it. Just shove the river. Trying to bet less than pushing is a HUGE mistake here, because it let's your opponent decide how much he likes his hand. Of all the mistakes you can make in poker, in general this is the worst one. Don't leave your opponent able to make good decisions. If you make a smaller bet, he will save money with his worst hand and he will force YOU to commit more when you're behind. Knowing this - that there's no chance you'll fold - you should take the initiative and nullifying his positional advantage and just push.

Sure, some of the time you'll miss value from hands that would have called a tiny bet but not a push, but per definition, there's not a whole lot of "value" in "tiny bets." There's a lot more value in barring him from getting to showdown for $7 instead of $14.50 with AJ.

If you had had a read on him that he bluffs the river with busted draws, a strong argument could be made for checking and calling. If you knew that he makes thin value bets in position on the river, a strong argument could be made for check-raising him all-in on the river.

But lacking such a read, just put it all in and hope he calls.

/FP

 

[blankoblanco]

my bad, looked at other guy's stack and for some reason thought both were around $40 effective. yes, pretty obvious shove with your stack

If you had had a read on him that he bluffs the river with busted draws, a strong argument could be made for checking and calling.

..what busted draw? 34o that paired up on the river? there's very close to never an argument for c/c-ing here, let alone a strong one

 

[F Paulsson]

I misread as well. I thought the flop was J-T-high.

 

[bw07507]

Yea, Im not really sure what I was thinking on this one. Lately I have been in autopilot mode not really thinking about ranges and barely looking at stats once I am already entered into a hand. I ended up checking and he checked behind with a pair of 10s.