nl10 flop botom set turn boat

N

njpokerhoney

Rock Star
Joined
Aug 17, 2007
Total posts
149
villian is 30/11/4 over 450 hands. Any input appreciated


full tilt poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (MP): $19.60
CO: $40.25
BTN: $13.40
SB: $19.50
BB: $10.10
UTG: $15.50
Pre-Flop: J
spadenormal.gif
J
heartnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20
Flop: ($0.90) J
diamondnormal.gif
Q
clubnormal.gif
K
heartnormal.gif
(3 Players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90, SB folds
Turn: ($2.70) K
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
BB bets $2.70, Hero calls $2.70
River: ($8.10) 6
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
BB bets $6.20 and is All-In, Hero ?
 
pantin007

pantin007

member
Joined
Apr 12, 2007
Total posts
6,208
insta shove, fist pump
no reason to fold or even consider folding in this situation
 
Jack Daniels

Jack Daniels

Charcoal Mellowed
Joined
Mar 26, 2005
Total posts
13,414
insta shove, fist pump
no reason to fold or even consider folding in this situation
^^^^ this. You're up against anything but KK/QQ almost all of the time that this is profitable. And in the very rare situation that villian has KK/QQ, then there is still one out to a win and the longshot runner runner for a split, so even when rarely behind you aren't drawing entirely dead. Push.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Not sure I like your line on flop, as an A or T kills our hand here. He's leading out on the flop and turn so he like's his hand, what range do we put him on here. Well underpairs are a definate no-no. He must have broadway cards JT+ QT+, KT+ and AT+ he could also have JJ+. Against this range on the flop were a 68/32 fav. But looking at the river does his action here narrow this range again maybe JJ+, KJ+, if so were a 33/66 underdog against his range, were getting just over 2/1 to call so it's a call I think :D.
 
Jack Daniels

Jack Daniels

Charcoal Mellowed
Joined
Mar 26, 2005
Total posts
13,414
Not sure I like your line on flop, as an A or T kills our hand here.
Why would an A or T kill our hand? All that would give him is a draw.

Well underpairs are a definate no-no.
While fairly unlikely, they are not totally out of the question based on his stats.
villian is 30/11/4 over 450 hands.
I don't give underpairs much weight at all here either, but I'm just saying we can't totally discount them as the villian's pot sized could also be trying to protect his underpair and push someone off of a Q or J by representing the K. Granted that 10NL rarely gets that tricky and our river call decision remains the same either way, I just don't think we openly discount them.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Why would an A or T kill our hand? All that would give him is a draw.

An Ace or Ten hits a lot of his range to give him a str8, imo, therefore on that board I think betting the flop is better b/c we still get value out of a lot of his range as well.

I really don't see this villain leading here with an under pair, and certainly not leading the turn.
 
Jack Daniels

Jack Daniels

Charcoal Mellowed
Joined
Mar 26, 2005
Total posts
13,414
An Ace or Ten hits a lot of his range to give him a str8, imo, therefore on that board I think betting the flop is better b/c we still get value out of a lot of his range as well.
OK, that makes sense. For some reason I didn't follow your drift when I first read it.

Though I disagree that leading the flop with underpairs won't ever happen. It sure as well could if you're really looking to win the hand and figure you'll have to bet to win. I don't see it being very often that this happens with underpairs, but I won't say never.
 
C

CfPoker

Rock Star
Joined
Jan 21, 2008
Total posts
332
I think you're ahead here. AT kills you but I don't think he'd have led so heavily with the betting if he had that, especially considering it was a rainbow flop.

His bets make sense if he's got QQ/KK to stop the draws, but you have to imagine he'd be raising these preflop.
 
N

njpokerhoney

Rock Star
Joined
Aug 17, 2007
Total posts
149
I appreciate everyone's input.


I will post results at the end of the day. If anyone else has some comments, suggestions- please give your input!
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

Cardschat Elite
Joined
Jul 7, 2006
Total posts
4,596
IF you are going to call on the river, why not shove it in on the turn when you boat up?
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

Cardschat Elite
Joined
May 25, 2005
Total posts
5,587
insta shove, fist pump
no reason to fold or even consider folding in this situation
Uh? he's all in, you're either calling or folding.

And in the very rare situation that villian has KK/QQ, then there is still one out to a win and the longshot runner runner for a split, so even when rarely behind you aren't drawing entirely dead. Push.
Uh? all cards are dealt, how can you have outs if you are behind?

I think you're ahead here. AT kills you but I don't
Uh? AT makes a straight, and NJPH has got Full House
 
N

njpokerhoney

Rock Star
Joined
Aug 17, 2007
Total posts
149
here's the result- argh



Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (MP): $19.60
CO: $40.25
BTN: $13.40
SB: $19.50
BB: $10.10
UTG: $15.50

Pre-Flop: J
spadenormal.gif
J
heartnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.90) J
diamondnormal.gif
Q
clubnormal.gif
K
heartnormal.gif
(3 Players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90, SB folds

Turn: ($2.70) K
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
BB bets $2.70, Hero calls $2.70

River: ($8.10) 6
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
BB bets $6.20 and is All-In, Hero calls $6.20

Results: $20.50 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero mucked J
spadenormal.gif
J
heartnormal.gif
J (a full house, Jacks full of Kings) and LOST (-$10.10 NET)

BB showed K
diamondnormal.gif
Q
heartnormal.gif
(a full house, Kings full of Queens) and WON $18.50 (+$8.40 NET)
 
Jack Daniels

Jack Daniels

Charcoal Mellowed
Joined
Mar 26, 2005
Total posts
13,414
Hero mucked J
spadenormal.gif
J
heartnormal.gif
J (a full house, Jacks full of Kings) and LOST (-$10.10 NET)

BB showed K
diamondnormal.gif
Q
heartnormal.gif
(a full house, Kings full of Queens) and WON $18.50 (+$8.40 NET)
Oh look, a scavenger hunt hand (unless you already have it).
 
Last edited:
Emperor IX

Emperor IX

Cardschat Elite
Joined
May 28, 2007
Total posts
2,974
Did no one even mention KQ/KJ in this thread? It's a very standard holding in 10nl and I definitely would've put more thought into folding this..
 
jewboy07

jewboy07

Visionary
Joined
Feb 4, 2008
Total posts
868
i think

I think it would take something quite incredible to fold here.

Of course many opponents overvalue KJ and that is certainly a possibility i think most of the time we all would call this as well.

This is not however an insta call every time, it does require some thought
 
Top