KQ to a flop C/R

[dbitel]

results and my thoughts later tonight. I've seen 1 or 2 answers get the general gist of what I want to get at, but want more people to think about it fully for themselves. Whats his range? Whats my range in his eyes? How do these various ranges play out on teh turns etc tec

 

[Vegas Cat]

Villain is a good TAG. He's a reg in the game and runs at something like 22/18/3. Hero is also a solid TAG reg and villain knows this. I have a wide button stealing range obviously.

Effective stacks $400. Full tilt 6max, $400NL.

3 folds, Hero raises to $14 with , SB folds, Villain calls in BB

Flop (2 players, $30):

BB checks, Hero bets $24, BB raises to $77, Hero.......?

On the BB Hero could have anything and being TAG with everyone folding Heros raise, unlikely that he would call with K,2 on the raise since he would always be out of position in betting and wouldn't want to be stuck pairing a K with low kicker.

Unlikely he called with 2,2...or he definitely would have slowplayed this and not bothered to reraise. He would also not put you on a 2,2 because you also would have slowplayed it.

He most likely on the BB could called with A,K, K,Q, A,Q, Ax suited, a pocket pair. His reraise after the flop could be trying to protect his hand, and see if you really paired your K.

if he had Q,Q J,J 10,10 he probably would have reraised preflop instead of just calling.

Hero can choose to reraise him back and if he folds then you know he was attempting to represent the Ks and see if you had them. If he flat calls, he probably has a K as well, but now you don't know if he has A,K, and has outkicked you, and is slow playing you.

Or Hero could flat call him with the intention of checkraising him on the turn if Villain doesn't come with an over the top bet. But it is probably better to decide to show more aggression on the flop and reraise or fold if Hero thinks he might be outkicked.

After Villain's reraise, if he calls or reraises Hero should check it down and fold..because he really can't tell if he's been outkicked.

 

[Passion_play]

I think I think he would have the 2 in his hand, maybe A 2.
I would fold
But then I suk.. hehe

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Call, either lead or raise (probably shoving depending a bit on villain's bet sizing) on the turn depending on what he does.

This is a pretty simple situation, from villain's perspective we've raised from late position when folded to, therefore he will assume there's a high chance we're stealing and although KQ isn't a huge hand he may not suspect we have as strong a hand as we do, and KQ would be at the higher end of the range he will be assigning us.

The flop is a good flop for a continuation bet, and as villain is a solid player he will know this, and more importantly he will know that we know this. Therefore what does our flop bet mean to him? Not a lot - it's entirely possible villain sees that we see it's a good flop for a c-bet and although we've missed the flop we're going to bet at it. Yes, we might have the K, but by checkraising (a) he is going to get us to fold if we don't have anything, and (b) a checkraise is such a show of strength we might fold a very weak K (although I'm not sure if villain would expect us to raise even when folded to in LP with potentially big trouble hands like ~K5).

If villain actually had a huge hand here, he would be best served by leading, which on this sort of board would most likely be perceived by us exactly as villain perceives our lead - that is as a bet which is hoping to just take the pot down on a flop which is unlikely to have hit his hand. Alternatively, he could check-call, but check-calling on an unco-ordinated board like this is, to a thinking player who knows he's playing a thinking player, just as scary if not more so than a check-raise. Good players know the value of disguising their hand. Villain is representing huge strength here by checkraising - would he want to represent huge strength on an unco-ordinated board like this one if he actually was very strong? I dunno, I guess it depends on how many levels we're operating on, but the answer is 'probably not'.

Also, obviously there aren't many hands a TAG is going to call a button raise with that have a 2 in them - even if he thinks you're raising with a wide range. AK would tend to reraise, obviously, so we can't be overly concerned about that.

We obviously can't fold because villain is so unlikely to be ahead of us. We can't raise because raising has no value attached to it unless villain has something like KJ which he is willing to continue with. We call and let him take a stab at the turn if he wants, there's little danger in letting him see another card as not a lot of turn cards scare us. The call of his flop raise may well scare him into check-folding, but I think it's the best thing we can do.

 

[joosebuck]

after thinking more, i think i was wrong & TT is more likely to lead than be cr by a good tag player.

 

[Bombjack]

I suppose it depends on your style. I pretty much never ever lead into a flop when out of position against one opponent who raised preflop - effectively an online check in the dark. The only time I would would be if I'm trying to induce a raise or possibly if I flopped a small flush.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

i don't see how you can do anything besides call and call him down from there. no reason to 3 bet the flop and push him off his bluff, and by calling down we're getting value from worse kings, and if he's behind (which he probably is) he probably has very few outs to beat us.

 

[joosebuck]

"FWIW, this isnt a post abotu WAWB, this is a post about hand reading and what to do with your reads"

well it depends on how accurate your read is of how good he is. he could obviously know we know this and be betting out with KK/2x knowing we will call and bet/raise the turn..

i think the most +ev move is to call this, check behind the turn and call another barrel on the river. could also see raising the turn, but in the rare cases of us being behind this will save us some chips.