KJ flops top pair, cbet raised [200nl FR]

[zachvac]

Villain is 42/18/2.5

poker stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

MP2: $207.40 (103.7 bb)
MP3: $197 (98.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $215.55 (107.8 bb)
BTN: $154.85 (77.4 bb)
SB: $198 (99 bb)
BB: $178 (89 bb)
UTG: $125.65 (62.8 bb)
UTG+1: $43.40 (21.7 bb)
MP1: $79.10 (39.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with J

K

5 folds, Hero raises to $6, BTN calls $6, SB folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($19) J

4

2

(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12, BTN raises to $30, BB folds

I don't think even this guy calls a flop 3-bet with much worse (unless he shoves a draw) and if we call like half the deck is a scare card. And we're oop. How do we continue?

 

[BelgoSuisse]

I don't cbet 100% of the time in this spot. Sometimes will, sometimes won't.

As played, we fold ?

The only hands we're clearly ahead are QJ and JT. We're barely ahead of flush draws and way behind AJ and sets. Most of his range fires a second barrel on turn and we have no clue how to handle that.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

btw, do you have villain's fold to cbet and raise cbet stats?

 

[feitr]

I don't like a fold unless villain has a tiny raise cbet%. Villain is representing a pretty narrow range (22, 44 and AJ) and with 40 some vpip villain's cold calling range on the btn is going to be massive. But with the BB to act it doesn't seem a good spot to bluff raise (good flop tho) and the only likely draws are FDs. Kinda need more reads/stats.

 

[zachvac]

btw, do you have villain's fold to cbet and raise cbet stats?

Kinda need more reads/stats.

Sorry forgot to say only ~30 hands.

 

[ztw30]

I say fold to raise. Maybe h is playing A J or maybe a pair with Two spades. In that case we are behind.

 

[F Paulsson]

I don't think we can fold. This is going to be a medium PP and often random Ax hands that whiffed the flop and figure you might fold to aggression. The thing about specifically those hands, though, is that they're fairly unlikely to follow up with a bet on the turn as well, in my experience, so calling the flop and check/folding the turn is probably the line I'd take (barring that we improve with a K or a J or a spade on the turn, preferably the As).

 

[BelgoSuisse]

(barring that we improve with a K or a J or a spade on the turn, preferably the As).

you don't think there are enough flush draws in villain's raising range here to make a spade more of a scare card than an improvement?

 

[F Paulsson]

you don't think there are enough flush draws in villain's raising range here to make a spade more of a scare card than an improvement?

Without doing a combo-count, my gut feeling is that a spade is on average an improvement for us. And really, without knowing anything about the guy it's hard to count combos. Would he raise a flushdraw in position on the flop? All flushdraws, or just some of them? Is the kind to raise with 88 on this flop? ATo? Etc.

I definitely call another bet on the turn (if he shoves the As, we have quite a decision) if I spike a king or a jack or the ace of spades. I don't think there's any value in donking or go for a CRAI on the turn with any of those cards, though. If the turn is the 8s and we check and he bets the pot, I... I don't know. I think I flip a coin and either call or fold. I'm trying to figure out if there's an argument for ever CRAI:ing the turn, but I can't think of one.