Floppping a nut low in PLO8

[Osmann]

I was playing 3 tables at the time so I don't have any very good reads. But as the stakes suggest, most people are playing decent.

Game #2672271634: Omaha H/L PL ($1/$2) - 2006/06/12 - 16:11:42 (ET)
Table "Assault" Seat 1 is the button.
Seat 1: m_bozeman ($200.63in chips)
Seat 2: Gen.Zod ($287 in chips)
Seat 3: azmike22 ($46.50 in chips)
Seat 4: S27ssn ($198 in chips)
Seat 5: khandog sits out
Seat 6: Logeight ($42 in chips)
Seat 7: SmileWine ($261.86 in chips)
Seat 8: TheBug ($100 in chips)
Seat 9: Pred@tor ($127.25 in chips)
Seat 10: Ozzy2 ($225.40 in chips) <------ Thats me
Gen.Zod: posts small blind $1
azmike22: posts big blind $2
TheBug: posts big blind $2
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Ozzy2 [Th] [Td] A♥ 2c
S27ssn: calls $2
Logeight: folds
SmileWine: calls $2
TheBug: checks
Pred@tor: calls $2
Ozzy2: calls $2
m_bozeman: folds
Gen.Zod: calls $1
azmike22: checks
----- FLOP ----- 3♣ 7♦ 5♦
Gen.Zod: bets $6
azmike22: folds
S27ssn: folds
SmileWine: calls $6
TheBug: calls $6
Pred@tor: folds
Ozzy2: calls $6

This is the most difficult street. I'm fairly sure I'm not winning half the pot at the moment, cause it's very likely there's another A2 out there, because 2 people called before me. And since there's 3 people in the pot it's also very likely someone (incorrectly) stayed in the hand with a straight, and it's also very possible somebody (incorrectly) stayed in the hand with the flush draw. So my chances of getting 1/4 are pretty high, unless I can make the people who are (incorrectly) playing for high in this situation fold their hands. If I can make the high hands fold, it's vey likely I will be getting 3/4 of the hand, so is it correct to proceed? I plan to bail on the turn, if the flush is completed or the betting goes crazy.
And is making a potsized raise even an option to try and make the high hands fold?

----- TURN ----- [3c 7d 5d]5♠
Gen.Zod: checks
SmileWine: checks
TheBug: checks
Ozzy2: bets $30
Gen.Zod: folds
SmileWine: calls $30
TheBug: folds

The turn card was perfect for me, because it allows me to bluff out any high hands who has not made a boat here, and anybody with a boat would probably not have checked. But how much should I bet? (the pot was $41) On one side I want to get heads up with the other low draw, where he puts the most money in the pot so I can clean him out on the river, but I would hate to have 2 callers, so I'm trying not to commit to much money on a hand where I'm probably only getting 1/4 if I get more than 1 caller.

----- RIVER ----- [3c 7d 5d 5s]5♣
SmileWine: checks
Ozzy2: bets $98
SmileWine: calls $98

Woot! Not much to analyze here. It's a nobrainer potsized bet to win 75% of the pot.

----- SHOW DOWN -----
Ozzy2: shows [Th Td Ah 2c] (A Full House, Fives full of Tens)
SmileWine: shows [9c Ac 2d 6d] (Three of a kind, Fives, Ace high)
SmileWine collects $72.50 from Main pot
Ozzy2 collects $72.50 from Main pot
Ozzy2 collects $145 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot $294 Main pot $291 Rake $3
Board [3c 7d 5d 5s 5c]
Seat 1: m_bozeman (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Gen.Zod (small blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 3: azmike22 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: S27ssn folded on the Flop
Seat 6: Logeight folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: SmileWine showed [9c Ac 2d 6d] and won ($72.50) with LO: 7,5,3,2,A
Seat 8: TheBug (big blind) folded on the Turn
Seat 9: Pred@tor folded on the Flop
Seat 10: Ozzy2 showed [Th Td Ah 2c] and won ($216) with HI: A Full House, Fives full of Tens; LO: 7,5,3,2,A

Comments on the various streets are very welcome.

 

[Alon Ipser]

Did you have any concerns about Smiley holding the last 5?

 

[ChuckTs]

nothing to say but nice analysis, and nicely played.
nice river to seal it too

 

[Osmann]

No Alon, the way the hand played out it was very unlikely he had the case 5. I was more than 90% sure he had A2 with nothing going for high, so the river potsize bet was the obvious choice.