Discussion of Poker Hand #544

V

viking999

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Joined
Jul 4, 2005
Total posts
512
Stacks: - Cali4niaRaisin with $48.55 - RachelofNYC with $196.60 - 3s2 with $15.90 - joseluisx2 with $143.70 - viking999 with $49.50 - dgtz with $51.70 - catch016 with $55.70

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Site: full tilt poker
* - Dealt to viking999:
ks.gif
tc.gif

* - Sklansky group 6
Preflop:
* - 3s2 calls [$0.50]
* - joseluisx2 calls [$0.25]
* - viking999 checks
* - Folds: 4
* - Potsize: $1.5
Flop:
td.gif
qh.gif
8c.gif

* - joseluisx2 checks
* - viking999 bets [$1]
* - 3s2 calls [$1]
* - joseluisx2 calls [$1]
* - Potsize: $4.5
Turn:
kd.gif

* - joseluisx2 checks
* - viking999 bets [$3]
* - 3s2 calls [$3]
* - Folds: 1
* - Potsize: $10.5
River:
qd.gif

* - viking999 checks
* - 3s2 bets [$7]

...


Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

Call or fold river? Got counterfeited on the river, but I still have top pair, board kicker. I have no reads on the villain. I'm definitely afraid of him having some queen (with 9 or J probably) or KJ, both of which beat me. Off chance of 8d9d or 8dJd, too. Am I going to chop or get bluffed enough here to be worth a call? If I'm getting bluffed, what am I getting bluffed with?
 
Last edited:
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
absolutely a fold. what did he call the flop and turn with that he's turning into a bluff now? JT makes sense for the first two streets but doesn't make sense for the river, as he has showdown value and there's such a tiny range of better hands that he could expect to bluff out. you'd almost have to put him on some random gutshot that didn't pair, made an incredibly loose flop call and turned an openender. in fact it's hard to beat any hand that paired the flop or turn because he would either a) beat you, b) in some rare instances chop with you or c) his showdown value would prevent him from turning his hand into a bluff. he's never valuebetting a lone T or 8 given the action so we don't have to put that into consideration. if he had a bluff here it's an anomaly. you should fold in this spot every time
 
V

viking999

Visionary
Joined
Jul 4, 2005
Total posts
512
But on the other hand, if he's thinking along the same lines as me, JT and J8 have absolutely zero showdown value. So maybe he could bluff those. I would say there's still not nearly enough in the pot to be worth a call, though.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Joined
May 16, 2006
Total posts
6,129
it's a paired board and you checked on the end. also you were the BB so your range is way wider than him. he's generally going to feel like JT has showdown value. i should specify that i don't actually think a T has very much showdown value and an 8 has almost none, but he doesn't know how you play. he can hope you were bluffing and gave up or had J8 yourself. i mean, yeah, if he's really analyzing the hand the right way from your perspective, he's going to see it probably doesn't, but that's ridiculous (and unprofitable) to expect from an unknown. people just rarely turn a decent pair into a bluff in a spot--especially at the lower limits-- like this

and like i said, there's a really small range of hands he can expect to bluff out if he had a J10 type hand. A10 is one of the only better hands he really could (we'll disregard that the turn doesn't look like A10 at all, because people are bad at hand reading in general). otherwise he has to bluff you off top pair or better. yeah, good luck regularly bluffing unknowns off top pair at 50NL here. basically i think he'd have more showdown value than he has likelihood of bluffing an unknown off a better hand. you'd almost have to put him on J8 that can't be diamonds. not any doubt in my mind it's a fold
 
nev3rh00d

nev3rh00d

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Joined
Nov 2, 2007
Total posts
2
1) It's very hard to give any sort of advice without knowing ur opponents style of play.

2) He called in SB hence there's very large variety of hands he might have. Most likely hand is W/E, Q or drawing hand like J9, J10. So in any case I would rather fold in this spot although he could be bluffing with busted draw on the river chances are he has you beat.
 
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