Crazy fold or no-brainer?

[viking999]

Stacks:
* BTN with $80.15
* SB with $17.50
* BB with $111.10
* UTG with $106.85
* UTG+1 with $26.55
* MP1 with $100.00
* MP2 with $113.15
* MP3 with $68.45
* CO with $26.00

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
* * Dealt to MP1:K♦ K♣
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 1 players fold.
* * UTG+1 raises to $3.50
* * Hero raises to $9
* * MP2 raises to $23
* * 7 players fold.
* * Uncalled bet of $14 returned to MP2
* * MP2 wins the pot ($23)
* * Total folds this street: 8

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum

Villain only has 5% PFR over about 50 hands. I thought his range would be very AA and KK heavy. Not 100% sure he couldn't do this with QQ or AK, though. Here are some other things that nudged me towards folding:

1) He was facing an EP raise and EP reraise, which should have put the fear of God in him, but it didn't.

2) He's 4-betting with several players yet to act. One of them could have woken up with a hand, but that didn't deter him.

3) I think shoving is a huge mistake, because he'll only call with KK+. However, if I call, I'm OOP with no good line. My call could very well scare his QQ away from putting any more money in, but if he has AA, I'm almost always losing my whole stack on the flop. We're still pretty deep after a preflop call, so the amount I stand to lose is pretty significant.

Is this crazy talk? Give it to me straight. I can handle it.

 

[c9h13no3]

I'm not a full ring player, but in general nits go crazy when they actually have a hand since they've been waiting for ages. Just because he has a tight preflop raise range doesn't mean he 4-bets tightly. Without more of a read, or more money behind, I just make him show me the aces.

 

[dsvw56]

50 hands is not nearly enough for me to lay down KK. He could very well just be getting cold cards. Ship it, with no regrets.

 

[becomingpoker]

this is a no-brainer, ship it in and get paid! Unless of course he has AA then you just figure "that's poker" and sooner or later you'll be on the AA side of this. I'm NEVER folding KK pre-flop even to a nit.

 

[viking999]

I gathered about 100 more hands on him over the course of the night. He did raise more than 5%, but not by a whole lot. His preflop AF was about 0.5.

What hands do I hope to profit from? If I ship it preflop, he's not calling with QQ or AK unless he's a total donk. The only stats I have on him imply that he's not. Even if I just call, I'm probably losing a lot more money against his AA than I'm winning against his QQ/AK. Being out of position kind of ruins it. If I were in position, I think I might win enough off of QQ to make it worthwhile.

Some math on the shoving choice:

I'm assuming that he won't call a shove with AK or QQ. I'm also assuming he can't have KK, which shouldn't have a big impact because the EV(KK) would be nearly 0 anyway.

EV = EV(AK | QQ) + EV(KK) + EV(AA)
EV = 37 * p(AK | QQ) + 0 + 114 * (p(AA) * 0.2) - 91 * (p(AA) * 0.8)
EV = 37 * (1 - p(AA)) + 114 * (p(AA) * 0.2) - 91 * (p(AA) * 0.8)
EV = 37 - 37 * p(AA) + 22.8 * p(AA) - 72.8 * p(AA)
EV = 37 - 87 * p(AA)
0 < 37 - 87 * p(AA)
p(AA) < 42.5%

This means that shoving is only profitable if he has AA less than 42.5% of the time. So it's not just a 50/50 "does he or doesn't he" proposition. This is because of how much more I lose if I'm wrong than win if I'm right.

 

[dsvw56]

Well, given the way things played out, he only has to fold like 55% of the time when you shove if he's ONLY calling with AA and KK for shoving to show an immediate profit. So basically if any hand other than AA or KK is in his 4-bet range, this shows an immediate profit. It may not be the most +EV way to play the hand, but it certainly isnt "wrong", and folding certainly is a worse option.


Edit : Basically what I'm saying is essentially turning KK in to a bluff is still more profitable than folding in this spot, if he ever 4-bets AK or QQ.

 

[feitr]

Personally i can't fold KK preflop. Like absolutely never even if i fully expect AA to be turned up. And i'm also 99% sure that doing so has been completely profitable. You can fold QQ here but i don't think you should ever fold KK (unless you have alot of stats and a good read). I've found myself literally 5% vpip after like 30 hands on a table before while on another one at the same time i am 50/50 after 40 hands.

 

[viking999]

For the record, this is only my third time ever folding KK preflop. One time I got to see the other guy's aces, and the other time I got 5-bet all-in by a solid player for 150BB more (VERRRRRY deep stacked play).

 

[blankoblanco]

as has been pointed out, 50 hands is way too small a sample to narrow the guy's range to AA. it's easy to be card dead for that long, then wake up with JJ and think it looks much huger than it really is. people do it all the time

however, i'd flat and i think shoving is kind of a mistake. you're just folding out QQ/JJ way too often with a shove. not always of course, but significantly often

 

[califantasy]

This hand looks familiar.

I think I was MP2. I had QQ I think...

 

[viking999]

This hand looks familiar.

I think I was MP2. I had QQ I think...

What is your screenname on Full Tilt?

 

[zachvac]

What is your screenname on Full Tilt?

Plays at: bodog

Obviously level.

 

[feitr]

For the record, this is only my third time ever folding KK preflop. One time I got to see the other guy's aces, and the other time I got 5-bet all-in by a solid player for 150BB more (VERRRRRY deep stacked play).

Well yea i was meaning 100bbs deep. Folding deeper is certainly an option.

 

[califantasy]

What is your screenname on Full Tilt?

Sorry dude. I was joking. It wasn't me.