Bet or take a free card?

Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
Villain is LAG. Given the amount of times he's raising pre-flop, I consider a re-raise, but just call.

I bet on the flop purely because he doesn't, and because there's a good chance I have the best hand.

The Turn is a great card, giving me an open-ended straight and nut flush draw. Do you bet again for fold equity/build the pot, or take the free card, with about a 30% chance of making a strong hand?

Seat 3: jamppa17 ($5.95 in chips)
Seat 4: Tu_Jedi ($10.95 in chips)
Seat 5: Villain ($51.30 in chips)
Seat 6: Bombjack_x [ :10s:,:as: ] ($119.30 in chips)
Seat 9: sanghiam ($97.75 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
jamppa17 posts blind ($0.25), Tu_Jedi posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
Villain bets $1.50, Bombjack_x calls $1.50, sanghiam folds, jamppa17 folds, Tu_Jedi folds.

FLOP [:9d:,:jc:,:3s: ]
Villain checks, Bombjack_x bets $2.50, Villain calls $2.50.

TURN [:8s: ]
Villain checks, Bombjack_x...
 
D

Dingodaddy23

Guest
checks, you dont wanna get check-raised off your draw and that looks EXACTLY like what he's doing. i mean what kind of LAG raises pre and then proceeds to check-call the flop and check-fold the turn? doesnt make sense at all, he's ready to raise you right here.
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

Legend
Go for the free card, and if you hit your straight or flush you'll be laughing and if you don't, you know you have lost as villian may be holding a mid PP as indicated by his 3xBB preflop bet, provided he knows how to play good poker and is not just a noob.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Free card, cause of what Dingo said. What is a LAG player raising pre-flop and then check-calling this flop with? There's no flush draw. If he had the QT straight draw, he just hit it on the turn. I don't see any probable holdings that aren't raising you if you bet except TT or maybe KQ. A set of 9s or Js looks probable. You don't want to get raised out here, and the way he's played it given the texture of the board suggests that that's exactly what is likely to happen if you bet. I absolutely take my free card here.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
On reflection with 44-88 he's betting the flop, so unlikely I'm knocking him off anything that beats me. I suppose if he has Ace-rag there's a small chance his rag might hit on the river. But more likely he's flopped a monster or on a draw, so free card is the way. Good analysis.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
Here's what happened:

TURN [board cards 9D,JC,3S,8S ]
Villain checks, Bombjack_x bets $5, Villain bets $10, Bombjack_x calls $5.

RIVER [board cards 9D,JC,3S,8S,KD ]
Villain bets $0.50, Bombjack_x calls $0.50.

SHOWDOWN
Villain shows [ 10C,QC ]
Bombjack_x mucks cards [ 10S,AS ]
Villain wins $28.75.

So the flop bet was good, but should have taken the free card on the Turn.
 
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