AQ vs weird action from TAG player; $25NL

[ChuckTs]

Villain is TAG (~18/12/3) and I am a little on the tight/passive side (~12/6/4). PF raiser (ahak11) is also TAG (~20/10/2) He hasn't played many pots, and usually enters with a raise unless he's in a favourable limping spot.
What the hell do we put him on and what do we do on the turn?

full tilt poker Game #1936266381: Table Covelo (6 max) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:40:32 ET - 2007/03/06
Seat 1: jpwingman ($17)
Seat 2: magicurt ($48.50)
Seat 3: ChuckTs ($45.15)
Seat 4: Avarice914 ($25)
Seat 5: HenryBlanco ($40.20)
Seat 6: ahak11 ($24.25)
magicurt posts the small blind of $0.10
ChuckTs posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Qs Ad]
HenryBlanco calls $0.25
ahak11 raises to $1.10
magicurt folds
ChuckTs raises to $4
HenryBlanco calls $3.75
ahak11 calls $2.90
*** FLOP *** [7s 7h Ah]
ChuckTs bets $7
HenryBlanco calls $7
ahak11 folds
*** TURN *** [7s 7h Ah] [2d]
ChuckTs has 15 seconds left to act
ChuckTs is thinking wtf does he cold call with PF like that...

limp preflop, then cold-call $4 preflop...I'm thinking AJ or AT at this point, maybe maybe KQh. Is a 7 possible? maybe AK? maybe he's trying to hold onto 88 or something?

 

[Aleeki]

Peronally.... I would put him on AJ or AK.

The problem being with one hand your gold, the other, your farked!

Hence the problem i guess.

 

[blankoblanco]

I think a 7 is possible if he's got 67s or 78s. This is a scary spot for sure... I'm honestly kind of scared to play $25NL and lower because it can be so hard for me to put people on a hand because they do weird things that may not be in their best interest.

 

[F Paulsson]

Random statements:

On the flop:

* I find it unlikely that he's calling a raise and a re-raise with 76s with the stats you've shown.

* If he has AK/AA, he's trying to be cute and tricky with them. In that case, I fear you're going to have to oblige and pay him off because, again, with his stats he doesn't look like a stranger to raising preflop. Also keep in mind that AA that limps tend to like coming over the top when it's raised behind him - which he didn't.

... but then he calls a flop bet, and we're completely lost. Some kind of medium suited connector of hearts fit, but that's relatively few hands.

But let's keep something else in mind: He has reasons to fear you, as well. You 3-bet preflop, and that's not something that's done lightly. If he doesn't have AA himself, he has to at least consider the possibility that you do, and he definitely shouldn't be foreign to the idea of you having AK.

For those reasons, I doubt you'll be raised by anything you can beat if you lead out on this turn, so with really deep stacks you should be able to fold if you're raised. However, your stacks aren't deep enough; the pot is already $28 and he only has $13 behind (if I'm summing this up right). So you can't bet/fold.

I think checking and calling a bet is the right thing to do here. The flushdraw is a distinct possibility, but we won't be able to bet to protect against that anyway. By checking, at least we'll induce a weaker ace to bet (figuring that we must have JJ or something like that) some of the time. The hands that crush us will never fold if we bet, so checking and calling a bet must - against those hands - be better than betting ourselves.

For what it's worth, I'm not a good enough player to fold at any point in this hand.

 

[ChuckTs]

I think checking and calling a bet is the right thing to do here.

I've run through this hand a bunch of times in my head even since yesterday and have actually come to the same conclusion - not because of the results, but because I think it's the best play. During the hand, I've narrowed him down to what I think are the only two hands that play it with this line: AT and AJ.

Thinking back, I've added more hands to his range: AK, XhYh, more probably KQh since he cold-called PF and hell maybe 77 .

I really don't see AA doing this; possible, but really improbable. 76s or 78s or whatever are really out there too looking at his PF line. It's just too weird.

For what it's worth, I'm not a good enough player to fold at any point in this hand.

That's worth a lot - I was gutted after this hand (obv I lost) because I couldn't lay it down given his line.

During the hand, I put him on AT/AJ and decided to stick him in (or rather call his push) since he showed so much interest in calling me down anyways. I don't think I would have been able to lay down the hand had I taken my full time to re-think his line (I can't put him on AK, AA or 7x now anyways), but I've taken a step back and had to reanalyze my play as of late because this is the most recent of a string of losses in ring games for me. I don't think through hands enough in-hand, and it's really costing me.

Anyways; results:

fulltiltpoker Game #1936266381: Table Covelo (6 max) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:40:32 ET - 2007/03/06
Seat 1: jpwingman ($17)
Seat 2: magicurt ($48.50)
Seat 3: ChuckTs ($45.15)
Seat 4: Avarice914 ($25)
Seat 5: HenryBlanco ($40.20)
Seat 6: ahak11 ($24.25)
magicurt posts the small blind of $0.10
ChuckTs posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [Qs Ad]
HenryBlanco calls $0.25
ahak11 raises to $1.10
magicurt folds
ChuckTs raises to $4
HenryBlanco calls $3.75
ahak11 calls $2.90
*** FLOP *** [7s 7h Ah]
ChuckTs bets $7
HenryBlanco calls $7
ahak11 folds
*** TURN *** [7s 7h Ah] [2d]
ahak11 adds $4.75
ChuckTs has 15 seconds left to act
ChuckTs bets $15
HenryBlanco raises to $29.20, and is all in
ChuckTs calls $14.20
HenryBlanco shows [6c 7c]
ChuckTs shows [Qs Ad]
*** RIVER *** [7s 7h Ah 2d] [5c]
HenryBlanco shows three of a kind, Sevens
ChuckTs shows two pair, Aces and Sevens
HenryBlanco wins the pot ($82.50) with three of a kind, Sevens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $84.50 | Rake $2
Board: [7s 7h Ah 2d 5c]
Seat 1: jpwingman (button) is sitting out
Seat 2: magicurt (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: ChuckTs (big blind) showed [Qs Ad] and lost with two pair, Aces and Sevens
Seat 4: Avarice914 is sitting out
Seat 5: HenryBlanco showed [6c 7c] and won ($82.50) with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 6: ahak11 folded on the Flop

 

[edge-t]

6c7c?!! OMG. It's really weird of him to cold call your preflop raise. When I was reading your original post, I thought he must be on medium pocket pair or something. It's a real weird line. Gosh...

 

[TheRifle]

Jeez, I'd have put him on AJs. Not saying this is the right way to play but I guess he was slow playing his trip 7s in case another ace came. Don't understand the raise by him pre-flop (before your bet) unless he's trying a steal.

 

[Ronaldadio]

Good new and bad new if I had been u chuck

I thought he was slow playing rockets, so I would have possibly folded (I say `possibly - depends on time of day, etc!!!)

 

[blankoblanco]

Obviously I don't think villain's line is a smart line pre-flop, especially since OR could re-pop it and then he has to throw it away, but in my experience it's not too insanely uncommon. Put yourself in a donk's shoes. "Oooh suited connector, I can stack someone, I got to see this flop, so I'm going to call. Aw, raise and a re-raise, but now I can stack both of them, I gotta see the flop." Seems like some players just commit themselves to seeing a flop with certain hands no matter what. I'm not as shocked as everyone else (but then, I did guess it )

 

[Ronaldadio]

Good new and bad new if I had been u chuck

I thought he was slow playing rockets, so I would have possibly folded (I say `possibly - depends on time of day, etc!!!)

Didnt finish this!!!

Good news - I would have folded - put him on pocket aces after flop.

Bad news - I obviously can`t read other players - 67s!!!