AA: Hold or Fold?

insolitude

insolitude

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What do you guys think of this one? What's my move here?

PokerStars Game #16329390825: Hold'em No Limit ($0.02/$0.05) - 2008/03/29 - 03:01:46 (ET)
Table 'Roxane II' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Chip Hulk ($14.91 in chips)
Seat 2: bash0r1112 ($5.93 in chips)
Seat 3: jtmorgan ($5.26 in chips)
Seat 4: kovye ($12.09 in chips)
Seat 5: gototable06 ($10 in chips)
Seat 6: insolitude ($11.49 in chips)
kovye: posts small blind $0.02
gototable06: posts big blind $0.05
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to insolitude [Ad Ah]
insolitude: raises $0.15 to $0.20
Chip Hulk: folds
bash0r1112: folds
jtmorgan: folds
kovye: calls $0.18
gototable06: calls $0.15
*** FLOP *** [Qs As 3s]
kovye: checks
gototable06: checks
insolitude: bets $0.50
kovye: folds
gototable06: raises $2.15 to $2.65
insolitude said, "damn AA here"
kovye said, "got to flat call"
kovye said, "don fold man"
kovye said, "wake up"
insolitude said, "flush i'm sure"
kovye said, "12 outs for max on turn"
kovye said, "10"
kovye said, "sorry"
kovye said, "flat cvall is the play"
insolitude: ???
 
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SeanyJ

SeanyJ

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insolitude said, "damn AA here"

WHY! Why would you tell them that? Seriously that doesn't make any damn sense to tell them your hand I don't even know how to go about the hand after you told them what you have...Why, why why why why why...WHY?
 
insolitude

insolitude

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Oops, should have taken out that comment!

To answer your Q, it was because I knew I was going to fold (the other option being a shove). My fold prompted several minutes of table talk, and the villain ultimately did say what he had.

Please ignore the comments and try to give me an objective opinion. Sorry I screwed up the objectivity of this one...
 
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blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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wowwww don't fold. if villain later said he had a flush, well good for him. folding here makes baby jesus cry

also, kovye should shut up seriously. someone needs to punch that guy
 
tenbob

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wowwww don't fold. if villain later said he had a flush, well good for him. folding here makes baby jesus cry

This........

Seriously, your losing to a flopped flush, and rarely does the nut flush play like this.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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wowwww don't fold. if villain later said he had a flush, well good for him. folding here makes baby jesus cry

also, kovye should shut up seriously. someone needs to punch that guy

^this.

Here's your typical $5NL players range here:

hands we're behind - made flush

Hands we're ahead of - Mid-high Ax hands, QQ/33, KsX (most likely a pair/draw hand like KsQ)

It's a trivial shove. We crush his range and even if we are behind we have 7 outs and will invariably pick up three more on the turn if we miss.
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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Call here, folding is just -ev in the long run, you have outs and as tb had said, a flopped flush rarely plays his hand like this.
Considering your preflop bet, the only hands beating you here are KJ/JT spades unless villian is a complete noob and holds anything that is sooted against any raise.
I would also like to add that I would like to see a larger preflop raise considering the level your at, maybe 6-8xBB.
 
T

trickdaddy22

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you still have a chance at turning or rivering a boat with such small stakes call and see what happens , then learn from the mistake if he really has the flush
 
T

Toad

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I'm always a little suspicious when someone changes gears like this guy.


What I mean by that is if villian did flop the flush his thinking would be something like:

"Yes! I flopped the flush....I'm gonna slow play it." <Check>

Then you throw out a pot sized bet and suddenly he decides to not slow play anymore? If he is slowplaying you are falling right into his trap and at these levels he just calls 99% of the time here.

My guess is he is on a high flush draw, maybe paired his Ace with a bad kicker, or is really bad at timing his bluffs. I'd call. If another spade comes on the turn then I'm out. If not, you are winning this most of the time. If he did flop the flush, you still have some outs to make a boat.
 
P

pkrook

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Always difficult...

when playing online, but you gotta occassionally see the hand through...nes pas?
 
SavagePenguin

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you still have a chance at turning or rivering a boat with such small stakes call and see what happens , then learn from the mistake if he really has the flush

"Small stakes" should have nothing to do with his decision.

Also, I don't think it should be considered a "mistake" to play this hand if he happens to have the flush, because in a similar situation you're going to win most of the time. Situationally, betting is a good move. In fact, I'd shove. The big bet could be his attempt at scaring us off a flush draw or a plethora of other hands that you have beat.

He could have soooo many hands here... a set of 3's, two pair, nut flush draw, etc. We're ahead of everything except the made flush. I'd shove.

Sometimes he'll have the flush, but most of the time we're going to take the pot.
 
dj11

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Well, since you already hinted that you folded here, congratulate yourself on showing yourself that you have the ability to lay down a big hand.

BUT DON'T EVER DO IT AGAIN!;) This is a hand the PokerGod Barry, the Ballsmeister has put to you to either double up, or double down! Robbie the RoyalFLushMeister comes right after Barry!:D
 
insolitude

insolitude

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Thanks for the input everyone. As hinted, I did fold this one. Here are my thoughts here:

* I have been very conscious lately about trying to get away from big hands like this because it seems like a discipline characteristic of winning poker players. No doubt I've laid down the occasional winning hand (this may be one of them), but overall I am trying to learn how to make a good laydown when I feel I am beat.

* I agree "small stakes" should have nothing to do with it. That said, if villain had a shorter stack than mine I think I would have gone ahead and shoved.

* I've only been playing 5NL for a week or two, so I'm still getting a feel for the tables. But in general I sense this sort of bet (what, like almost 4x the pot?) represents a flush.

A couple of the players gave me grief for at least five minutes, and finally the villain spoke: J-high flush. I suspect he was telling the truth -- makes more sense to deny the flush if you want to lie about it.

Getting back to the math, let's assume villain has flopped a flush. I figure I am ~40% to win this pot. To those of you who think I should have called, would you say the same if:

* You knew for certain you were against a flush?
* You had a much smaller set (or is it just that AAA is sexy)?

If I'm reasonably certain he has a flush, am I right to fold if I only really want to put $ in the pot when I'm actually ahead in terms of % to win?
 
insolitude

insolitude

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Since no one has said it yet, yes I'm aware the turn was no doubt the last A.

Oh, and BTW I left the table with $25 (thanks in large part to my slow-played quads vs. a straight).
 
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SavagePenguin

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To those of you who think I should have called, would you say the same if:

* You knew for certain you were against a flush?
* You had a much smaller set (or is it just that AAA is sexy)?

1) If we knew he had the J high flush, then it's a fold. We'll only win 1/3 of the time (34.4%) and the pot is going to get much bigger, as he's not going to want a Ks to draw to a flush or two pair to hit a FH.

2) If we had a set of 3's in this case I still shove. However, I probably wouldn't play 3/3 UTG unless I thought I had a good chance of taking the blinds, or had a good chance of a lot of callers.
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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Just seen this, what a horrible, horrible hand. Why tell the table you've got AA, that's just insane? And then to enter into dialogue with some jerk that's no longer in the hand - he should have his chat banned, or be banned full stop.

To those of you who think I should have called, would you say the same if:

* You knew for certain you were against a flush?

In internet poker, how do you know "for certain" what you are up against (please ignore Superuser accounts)? You don't, how can you? You have to guess. You can make educated guesses, you can make guesses based on your observations and your experience but basically poker is a series of guesses, some of which you get right, some of which you get wrong.

Sorry to go over old ground, but here you are only behind a flush. There were only 2 opponents both of whom called a 4 x raise. They didn't do that with Ax suited, the ace is on the flop. They didn't do it with Qx suited cos the Q is on the flop. That doesn't leave many hands that would have called you that you are behind. And a made flush would play this much cuter, no?

So easy push.

I also note he's got $10 exactly so assume he's just sat down? I bet he was laughing his head off when you folded.
 
N

njpokerhoney

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Thanks for the input everyone. As hinted, I did fold this one. Here are my thoughts here:
To those of you who think I should have called, would you say the same if:

* You knew for certain you were against a flush?
* You had a much smaller set (or is it just that AAA is sexy)?

If I'm reasonably certain he has a flush, am I right to fold if I only really want to put $ in the pot when I'm actually ahead in terms of % to win?

How can you know "for certain" villian has a flush?
As for smaller set- you had top set. If I have top set on a flush board with a big bet- I'm calling more often than not if I have any reads.

As for the nl5 level- I don't know how this level plays, but you have top set getting bet into. He more than likely has the Ks, as ar as you know, and is pushing a draw. I'd shove and assume I'm ahead- and be ready for a suckout.
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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A couple of the players gave me grief for at least five minutes, and finally the villain spoke: J-high flush. I suspect he was telling the truth -- makes more sense to deny the flush if you want to lie about it.

I disagree, he wants you to think that it was a good fold so that you'll fold again next time you flop a monster hand that isn't the absolute nuts, and you get some resistance.
 
F

feitr

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First of all...NEVER tell anybody your hand and if you are tempted to do so just turn of the chat.

Second, this is not a good play at all. Laying down big hands does not mean laying down an AMAZING hand where you are only behind a flopped flush (1:118) and even if you are behind you have several outs to make the nuts. Easy shove.

You have 7 outs on the turn and even if you miss you will have 10 outs on the river, and that is in the worst possible scenario. All in all, given the worst situation you are still 1:2 to win the pot after the flop, and given any other situation you are way ahead.
 
C

CfPoker

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i wouldn't even think twice - shove. If he's got the made flush, so be it, but you're still drawing to the full house. Anything else and it's all but yours.
 
mrsnake3695

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Yes good players (pros) do make big laydowns. But they are also not playing 5$ NL against which does make a difference. Also, a good player will tell you if you don't lose a lot with a set you didn't play it well. Sets don't come around very often you shouldn't be looking for a way to fold you should be trying to get in all your money. (I will make an exception if there are 4 flush cards or 4 to a straight on the board)

And in the worse case you will have outs even if behind. And there is no possible way, other than a feeling, to know he has the made flush.

I agree with 2 other points here:

Raise more preflop. I know "they" say raise 3-4x the BB but at these low stakes especially online all kinds of hands will call this size raise including any 2 suited cards that donks love so much. Make people pay to play these against u.

Please don't talk about your hand any more, it gives too much information. STOP.
 
zebranky

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Shove it

Gotta shove it in. As everyone keeps saying the ONLY hand you are behind is a flopped flush.
A point I don't think anyone else has considered - a flopped flush might play the way your opponent did, but ONLY if he flopped a less-than-great flush (eg, he was holding 67s). Anyone who flopped the nut or even J-high flush should slowplay a little. So by pushing all in, even if you're behind, you can represent a bigger flush (if you hadn't told him you have AA). You get a decent chance he'll fold if he has a small flush, he will fold if he's bluffing you, and maybe a great payout if he has a good (but not the flush) hand.

And when all else fails, you have about a 1 in 4 chance of getting a full house or quads on the turn/river, even if you're behind.
 
insolitude

insolitude

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I really appreciate the continued input. Anyone who hasn't weighed in is welcome to join in the conversation.
 
robwhufc

robwhufc

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Gotta shove it in. As everyone keeps saying the ONLY hand you are behind is a flopped flush.
A point I don't think anyone else has considered - a flopped flush might play the way your opponent did, but ONLY if he flopped a less-than-great flush (eg, he was holding 67s). Anyone who flopped the nut or even J-high flush should slowplay a little. So by pushing all in, even if you're behind, you can represent a bigger flush (if you hadn't told him you have AA). You get a decent chance he'll fold if he has a small flush, he will fold if he's bluffing you, and maybe a great payout if he has a good (but not the flush) hand.

And when all else fails, you have about a 1 in 4 chance of getting a full house or quads on the turn/river, even if you're behind.
Blast from the past, i thought you'd stepped on a land mine or something!
 
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