50nlFR TP OOP against nit

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
Villain is a 14/4/2.2 after 400 hands, and this is only my 2nd hand at the table.

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $9.35
UTG: $51.45
UTG+1: $39.25
UTG+2: $29
MP1: $52.35
MP2: $57.60
CO: $54.35
BTN: $64.65
Hero (SB): $50.25

Pre-Flop: A
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Q
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dealt to Hero (SB)
5 folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3.50, BB folds, CO calls $3, BTN folds

Flop: ($8) J
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3
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Q
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(2 Players)
Hero bets $5.50, CO calls $5.50

Turn: ($19) T
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(2 Players)
Hero ...
 
B

Bentheman87

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Looks like he has a couple of face cards, probably KJ or maybe J10. I'd check and call any reasonable bet and try to check it down on the river.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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I'm definitely in the check/call camp on the turn. That T hits his neighborhood, so two pair is quite likely. His limping range probably includes a lot of QT, JT type hands.
 
S

switch0723

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checking/calling a decent bet, folding to a large bet (pot sized)

Thats all on that issue, i just have another question

In general, do we really want to be 3betting a known nit out of position??? What will he call the 3 bet with that we beat?

(Actual question, not criticism)
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Villain limped and I raised pf, switch.

I think it's pretty clear we're not getting much value from worse hands if we bet. I just hate these spots OOP because villain can easily put us in a really uncomfortable spot if he bets big now and/or on the river. Hence the effectiveness of floating (which he's not necessarily doing on this board).

I check-call a $10 bet.

River comes [Jc]

Hero...

oh and fwiw villain snapcalled the flop
 
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switch0723

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Villain limped and I raised pf, switch.

Thats why being able to read properly is a handy skill

As for the river, i think i would bet out with a blocker type bet, say about $12 since i really don't want to be checking to villain with them knowing we probably cant call a big bet. I would be willing to check/call a $12 bet, so id be willing to lead out for that size to get action from another q, maybe a ten, 2 pairs have now been counterfeited so we now beat them. Id then fold to a re raise. With a blocker bet, we may also slow down another jack into flat calling which would save us

Just for future reference, if villain had raised preflop, would you have 3 bet???
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Thats why being able to read properly is a handy skill

:)

Just for future reference, if villain had raised preflop, would you have 3 bet???

If the two limpers had limped and he'd raised on the button I'd probably just pitch my hand. Nits like this don't pull squeezes with marginal hands and I'd expect to be seeing, at the very most, his %4 PFR range here:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.308% 30.42% 02.89% 22919336 2175227.50 { AdQh }
Hand 1: 66.692% 63.81% 02.89% 48071585 2175227.50 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

So we're crushed and are OOP. Not much good getting involved there.

If he opens in LP (ie no limpers) I'd have to look at his attempt to steal. If he's opening up significantly wider in LP (like %10 or more) I'd probably repop him and play out the pot.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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I check-call a $10 bet.

River comes J♣

Hero...
Obviously we're checking. Should we call?

What hands do we beat that take that line? 9T, KQ, Q9, KT. That's all I can come up with. I'm check/folding this river without a mega-read.
 
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Tygran

Tygran

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I really doubt someone with those stats calls with Q9 or J9...let alone try to open limp them in the CO.

so..I'd estimate his range to be: KQ, KJ, JQ, TJ, 9T, 89, AT, AJ. The two/three gappers (ie QT, J9, Q9, KT etc) are possible but less likely from those stats I would think, I just don't see a nit like this limp->calling those preflop. It's also somewhat possible he is playing a pp...based on his play I would have to think 88 or 99 are most likely but he could also have a monster and is slowplaying (TT, JJ, etc). I do not consider the pairs very likely with the lone exception of 33.

We can't beat much other that KQ or AT... what else could he have? There isn't a flush.


I dunno this isn't pretty. The only hands you can beat are 88/99 which I don't think to be extremely likely and QK (which is likely). Unfortunately every other likely hand has you beat.

I'm checking the river and probably folding. If he bets say another $10 again you might have to call but I'm not calling anything bigger than a tiny bet.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
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standard c/f on the river unless he practically minbets. KQ is probably not going to bet at all, though if they did it would be a small one. and this player is so tight they dont often have the draws you could possibly beat like KT or T9 (maybe T9s but even so, they're giving up and checking behind river a bunch)
 
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