$50NL overpair to the flop against a C/R

tenbob

tenbob

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Villian had just made a totally idiot play on a draw heavy board with bottom pair with a gutshot and got lucky, apart from that no reads, why do i get these hands early in a session.

pokerstars Game #8988059771: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/03/19 - 19:52:39 (ET)
Table 'Anchialos V' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: sinnerman160 ($24.50 in chips)
Seat 2: guncito ($77.40 in chips)
Seat 3: nextstop ($106.15 in chips)
Seat 4: EyeKnows ($36 in chips)
Seat 5: dukes121 ($15.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Canderu ($55.50 in chips)
Seat 8: tenbob ($54.90 in chips)
Seat 9: jessyj ($28.50 in chips)
guncito: posts small blind $0.25
nextstop: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tenbob [Qh Qs]
EyeKnows: folds
brindle84 leaves the table
dukes121: folds
Canderu: folds
tenbob: raises $1.50 to $2
jessyj: folds
sinnerman160: folds
guncito: folds
nextstop: calls $1.50
*** FLOP *** [5s Jh Th]
winkdaddy2 joins the table at seat #6
nextstop: checks
tenbob: bets $3.50
nextstop: raises $8.50 to $12
tenbob: ????
 
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mischman

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Agaisnt a normal player this is a great board. He could AJ, KJ(very likely imo) and especially agaisnt a donkish player. You said he made this play with a gut? theres a flush draw and a straight draw on board. Just close the action here and shove. If he has AJ, KJ, hope it holds and if he has KQ, Q9, 2h, hope it holds. ALL IN!

edit: just saw you had Qh, oh well no royal still a lot of draws. This is to strong to get rid of, only thing that makes me think he has a set or AA, KK(obv not likely) is that this seems to be a standard raise/shove agaisnt a donkish player. Makes me think you lose some how.
 
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Dingodaddy23

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what was his bet sizing like on the previous hand? i think this is v. close between fold and shove... i would tend to shove against a villian such as you described. J10 is a good possiblity as is the nut flush draw or even KQ, or if he's reaaaly bad AJ. of course sets also but most 50 NL players dont know how to play sets and would slowplay here.
 
calibanboy

calibanboy

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I assume that you shoved and he had AA. JJ or 10,10 or the other pp? All of these hands would do exactly what he did - even as a bad player.

This happens.

One thing to remember is that an overpair is an overpair - its nothing more. Even rubbish players can hit good hands. All in with an overpair will normally only get a call from a stronger hand - and is hence a losing play over the long term against standard players.

The questions to ask are is -

a) will this player raise this heavily with nothing? ( calling a bad drawing hand earlier in the session is different to raising and requires different attributes from a player )

If yes, then an all-in could win more than it lost if replayed 1000 times.

If No then you have to believe that there is a good chance that he has better than an ( relatively low ) overpair. Even bad players can have bigger overpairs or hit the flop.

The reason why this question is important is because an all in with an overpair will only get called by a better hand - eg two pair or better against the majority of players. Therefore just because he is a bad player does not mean he will not do the same as a good player ( eg re-raise you when connected if he has the cards. )

Even against a bad player I will only go all in with two pair min. This way I only go all-in when I am sure I am winning - rather than hoping. I would try to minimise the pot where I can without something stronger than an overpair.

If I thought the player was drunk I might shove - as there is a chance he thought he was "lucky today"
 
Lafaena

Lafaena

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If a gutshot seems nice a flushdraw must seem like the nuts to him. Maybe kk/aa, but really dont think so, as donks usually dont know how to raise so much with them. J10 would not surprise ,straight or flushdraw?

I was thinking about pushing, but i think you should reraise instead.
to much money to push.
 
Last edited:
Lafaena

Lafaena

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Maybe he is putting you on a draw

When i look at it again he may be putting you on a draw cuz you bet it as he would. He may be more vary of draws when he just hit a gutshot¨. This board must seem scary with alot of holdings.He proabaly know how people can suck out. maybe his raise was a protection bet? Would he slowplay a set on this flop? depends on player, but less likely overall i would think.
You should call and reevaluate the turn.
 
ChuckTs

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Just a peek at the numbers with a reasonable hand range on a guy who is making 'idiot play's.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.382% 59.98% 00.41% 33251 225.00 { QhQs }
Hand 1: 39.618% 39.21% 00.41% 21739 225.00 { JJ-TT, 55, AJs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, AJo, KJo+, QJo, JTo }
 
tenbob

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Im fairness he only made one idiot play, it was a poor flop semi bluff that hit on the turn, and his opponent stacked. I really thought he was at it and had me on an AK type hand against his AJ.

I shoved, he calls and flips over JJ for top set. This kinda sickened me, because i hadnt stacked like this for a long time, I know i have more disicipline. :(

Got it back a few hands later with my AA vs his JJ though, even though thats not the point.
 
joosebuck

joosebuck

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if we raise here, what can we raise to that defines our hand and leaves us room to bail if he shoves? can we honestly think of folding? how can we control the pot if raising doesnt give us enough info with room to fold? can we call here and see what he does on an innocuous turn?

also keeping in mind the default play for the idiot flopped set is c/r.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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We cant raise at all Joose IMO. He has bet $12 into us, so if we raise we are effectively committing our stack, a min raise will give us little if no information if he calls, and a decent raise is really the same as the shove.

Calling an seeing a brick hitting the turn also gives us no help, the turn card may also be a card we dont want to see a J/10/K/A any heart would be a worry. I would have layed this down only for i seen him make a similar play earlier on a poor draw.
 
Bombjack

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You can't lay down QQ here. Call and check the Turn.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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You can't lay down QQ here. Call and check the Turn.


100% agree. You're in position, so smooth call and make him sweat it. (Unless of course he has JJ) :D
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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Villian had just made a totally idiot play on a draw heavy board with bottom pair with a gutshot and got lucky, apart from that no reads, why do i get these hands early in a session.

PokerStars Game #8988059771: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/03/19 - 19:52:39 (ET)
Table 'Anchialos V' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: sinnerman160 ($24.50 in chips)
Seat 2: guncito ($77.40 in chips)
Seat 3: nextstop ($106.15 in chips)
Seat 4: EyeKnows ($36 in chips)
Seat 5: dukes121 ($15.85 in chips)
Seat 7: Canderu ($55.50 in chips)
Seat 8: tenbob ($54.90 in chips)
Seat 9: jessyj ($28.50 in chips)
guncito: posts small blind $0.25
nextstop: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tenbob [Qh Qs]
EyeKnows: folds
brindle84 leaves the table
dukes121: folds
Canderu: folds
tenbob: raises $1.50 to $2
jessyj: folds
sinnerman160: folds
guncito: folds
nextstop: calls $1.50
*** FLOP *** [5s Jh Th]
winkdaddy2 joins the table at seat #6
nextstop: checks
tenbob: bets $3.50
nextstop: raises $8.50 to $12
tenbob: ????
Call, turn the 5c and counterfeit his JTo. Then laugh.

Seriously though, I'm not good enough to fold this when there are so many different draws that he may be semibluffing with. Making a big raise isn't quite as attractive since we have position and I'd like to be able to use that muscle on the turn. There's unfortunately very few turn cards that we can fold that I can think of, so if he has us beat, I'm going to pay him off on at least the turn as well.

I hate NL.
 
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