[50NL 6max] AA vs Turn Raise

[bw07507]

Villain is 30/7/4 over only 13 hands
I have been pretty card dead at this table, running 12/8/2

pokerstars GAME #17198452024: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/05/04 - 14:22:05 (ET)
Table 'Cogshall' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Niko544 ($50 in chips)
Seat 2: tobinho27x ($152.60 in chips)
Seat 3: bw07507 ($53.15 in chips)
Seat 4: tswmatt2000 ($9.30 in chips)
Seat 5: masterFJ ($53.55 in chips)
Seat 6: >Sir<Lorenz ($96.70 in chips)
>Sir<Lorenz: posts small blind $0.25
Niko544: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [Ah Ac]
tobinho27x: folds
bw07507: raises $1.50 to $2
tswmatt2000: folds
masterFJ: folds
>Sir<Lorenz: folds
Niko544: calls $1.50
*** FLOP *** [9s Td 5s]
Niko544: checks
bw07507: bets $3
Niko544: calls $3
*** TURN *** [9s Td 5s] [5c]
Niko544: checks
bw07507: bets $6.25
Niko544: raises $10.25 to $16.50
bw07507: ?

 

[F Paulsson]

It's a close decision, and it's a close decision vs. an unknown. So far, my strategy has always been to try to get to showdown in these situations, and it's been wildly profitable. But my sample size is small, so take it with a large grain of salt.

However, with a range of {QQ-99,A5s,T9s,A5o,T9o}, you're 65% to win. Toss in the possibility of him bluffing/semibluffing some of the time, and you really can't afford to fold.

 

[Jillychemung]

I don't see the 2nd 5 as helping the opponent. I would be more inclined to put opponent on T9, JsTs, JsQs, QsKs, AsTs, ATo and/or opponent thinks you are just 2nd barreling a big A. I would flat call here and then 1/2 pot bet any non-spade or non-8 river card. If a spade or 8 did come I'd probably check/call.

Now if you plan on playing a lot more on this table and can make use of a more aggressive image, I'd push here and if folded to I'd show the AA. This will help setup some plays later on where you can semi-bluff and be believed more easily.