[50nl 6 max] QQ again...

[Jagsti]

Ok this hand came up in mine and Chuck's sweat session today.

Villain was 70/0/1 over smallish sample, basically calls every bet and doesnt raise.

Line on turn please? Are we checking behind, risking the flush to hit or do we value bet/push here?

poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $80.80
UTG: $36.65
MP: $63.90
CO: $50.05
Hero (BTN): $53.40
SB: $38.05

Pre-Flop: Q

Q

dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $7.50, SB folds, BB calls $7, CO folds

Flop: ($17.25) 5

J

8

(2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12.25, BB calls $12.25

Turn: ($41.75) K

(2 Players)
BB checks, Hero?

 

[pkrook]

you...

can only check now b/c bb is either two pair or heart draw, tuff one, better luck next time.

 

[SavagePenguin]

A 70? I'd bet it here. The King is just as likely to be a scare card for him. I think he has a small pair, maybe 9/9? It's sure suck if it was 8/8.

 

[zachvac]

A 70? I'd bet it here. The King is just as likely to be a scare card for him. I think he has a small pair, maybe 9/9? It's sure suck if it was 8/8.

If it's a scare card we check. A bet needs to be for value here. We're not folding out a K/set/2-pair. The fact that there are 2 hearts here makes it a bit more ugly because we don't want to give a flush draw a free card here. I would probably check behind here though and call a non-heart decently-sized river bet.

 

[c9h13no3]

Pot control is almost totally out of the window here as we're in a 3-bet pot. I don't think there are many hands that survive the preflop & flop betting that have a king in them. KJ, KhQh, AhKh, 88, and JJ+ are the only hands we're afraid of here. But we're not folding any of those hands out (or other hands that have us beat) by shoving.

So yeah, there's two arguments:

1) Check, hoping to induce a bet/bluff on the river from a weaker hand
2) Shove, hoping QJ, AJ, 2 hearts, ect. calls us.

I think option 1 is our best option. Check and call any bet on any non-heart, non J, non A river. If one of those scare cards comes up we have a real decision

Playing against super passive calling stations is pretty simple. When you're in a strong position, you bet, and you don't worry about showing strength. When you're not in a strong position, you check and just waltz to showdown without fear of your opponent betting. Since our position changed when the king hit, I think this is an easy check. Also, since our opponent actually raised preflop, I'd be a bit scared of something like KK or AK. Weak tight passive fish don't raise preflop very often.

 

[Jagsti]

Pot control is almost totally out of the window here as we're in a 3-bet pot. I don't think there are many hands that survive the preflop & flop betting that have a king in them. KJ, KhQh, AhKh, 88, and JJ+ are the only hands we're afraid of here. But we're not folding any of those hands out (or other hands that have us beat) by shoving.

So yeah, there's two arguments:

1) Check, hoping to induce a bet/bluff on the river from a weaker hand
2) Shove, hoping QJ, AJ, 2 hearts, ect. calls us.

I think option 1 is our best option. Check and call any bet on any non-heart, non J, non A river. If one of those scare cards comes up we have a real decision

Playing against super passive calling stations is pretty simple. When you're in a strong position, you bet, and you don't worry about showing strength. When you're not in a strong position, you check and just waltz to showdown without fear of your opponent betting. Since our position changed when the king hit, I think this is an easy check. Also, since our opponent actually raised preflop, I'd be a bit scared of something like KK or AK. Weak tight passive fish don't raise preflop very often.

Very good analysis imo. Pity I didn't think like this when I played the hand .

 

[ChuckTs]

Also, since our opponent actually raised preflop, I'd be a bit scared of something like KK or AK. Weak tight passive fish don't raise preflop very often.

Just a note, villain cold-called the 3-bet preflop and the original bettor folded.

I'd like to give an alalysis here but I'm having a tough time pinning him on a rough range. I said push in the hand and I still stand by it, assuming he's looking us up with nearly his whole range, and if he's drawing we want a call before he sees a missed river and shuts down. Any jack, any pocket pair, any draw, maybe even middle pair calls us so I shove. He's very passive so he won't be bluffing a missed draw nor will he turn like 99 into a bluff.

 

[Jagsti]

Yep it's easy to make tricky decisions just by looking at HH's and taking our time to look at the desirable line. In the heat of battle, it's often a different story. Our thoughts were, against this particular villain, we have to make him pay for the flush dr assuming he has it. Just checking to give him the flush, or to hit any other part of his range in a 3 bet pot seems incredably weak imo. The only bet that makes sense is a shove.

 

[zachvac]

ok I didn't pay attention to the stack sizes the first time. Basically the next bet will most likely be a shove from either of you, and that makes a ton of difference in this hand. This is a really ugly hand.

First off my rule of thumb is that if I would call a shove I almost always want to be the one shoving. Why is that? Because if I let my opponent decide whether to shove or not, I'm paying him off when he has a monster and letting him see a cheap showdown when he doesn't. The question is, are we calling this shove? Just because of the preflop action I believe we do. I can see AJ hands paying us off, although they probably would have raised because of the flush draw out there. If we check behind here I think we have to be giving up on the hand unless we improve. That means that if we check behind and the river is a rag and villain shoves we're folding. The fact that this guy is 70/0/1 I think makes this a really bad play. I think we have to put it in here on the turn. If he flips over AK you can cry, and if he flopped a set I think it's just a cooler. I think the best move here is to shove regardless of what the actual result was.

 

[c9h13no3]

letting him see a cheap showdown

Why are we so opposed to see a cheap showdown? What hands that call on the flop do we beat? AJ, QJ, 99, TT, XhXh? Maybe his range extends down to JT, and a few other random hands like AQ that wouldn't give up, but I doubt many sane players are continuing with a range wider than that.

I just don't understand how shoving gains us value. I doubt even the most fish of fish are calling a turn shove with 2 hearts. I really think only two hands (AJ, QJ) are going to be able to call a turn shove that give us value. The rest we're just folding out hands that are drawing thin, or putting our money in while we're crushed.

And besides, our opponent has taken the weakest line on the planet. I think we can see a mega cheap showdown at this point. And that would be my line since this seems a lot like a WA/WB situation. Only AhQh and AhTh has a significant amount of outs against us on the turn that we could charge to draw.