50max NLHE FR -- line check to action with 2nd nuts on flop

skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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Villain is fairly solid and will play lots of different starting hands.

Stacks:
- skoldpadda9 with $26.30 - Phillyfan92 with $58.50 - Sett-huk with $8.15 - Yusuf89 with $20.50 - Kiki10 with $13.65 - Dbone23 with $13.05 - ilovemoth with $23.70 - iemdavid with $29.50 - playertilted22 with $24.25

index.pl


index.pl

Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: full tilt poker
* - Dealt to skoldpadda9:
8d.gif
6c.gif

Preflop:
* - phillyfan92 calls [$0.25]
**- 3 players fold.
* - dbone23 calls [$0.25]
**- 2 players fold.
* - playertilted22 calls [$0.15]
* - skoldpadda9 checks
* - Total folds this street: 5
* - Potsize: $1
Flop:
td.gif
7c.gif
9d.gif

* - playertilted22 checks
* - skoldpadda9 bets [$1]
* - phillyfan92 raises to $4 (2 Folds)
* - TURTLE ?

Poker Hand Converter By Cardschat.com Poker Forum
 
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c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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That is a seriously drawy board, and if villain is holding a strong draw, he won't mind getting as much money in on the flop as possible, if he thinks he's holding at least 13 outs or more.

Also, a set (unlikely to be in his range) or 2-pair 9T or 97 may take this line, and still may stack off, if we re-raise to say, 10$. By playing things this fast, we do lose QT, possibly JT. But I don't think top-pair raises that strong on that flop.

And sure, we're holding the ignorant end, but if he's holding J8, I'd just pay him. I think we stand to make more money from the draws who think they're holding clean outs than we stand to lose by running up against the top end of the straight.

EDIT - I don't know... Now that I think about it, there are a lot of hands that could be drawing *very* strong against us... Does it makes sense to just call, and see what the turn brings, and then try to get it in with less risk of being out-drawn? Hands like QdJd, or any suited jack are holding a truckload of outs... Yeah, I suppose this isn't as clear now that I think about it.

So we want to stack off with a set, 2 pair, or any inferior draws such as Jd2d. We want to avoid stacking off with QdJd, KdJd, and J8. Idk, I think I'd just flat call, and then lead on the turn barring any ugly cards. Its certainly the safer path, albeit maybe less profitable.
 
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skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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EDIT - I don't know... Now that I think about it, there are a lot of hands that could be drawing *very* strong against us... Does it makes sense to just call, and see what the turn brings, and then try to get it in with less risk of being out-drawn?

Like this, for example?:

Phillyfan92 raises to $4
Dbone23 folds
playertilted22 folds
skoldpadda9 calls $3
*** TURN *** [Td 7c 9d] [Ac]
skoldpadda9 checks
Phillyfan92 bets $4
skoldpadda9 raises to $22.05, and is all in
Phillyfan92 calls $18.05
skoldpadda9 shows [8d 6c]
Phillyfan92 shows [9h 7s]
*** RIVER *** [Td 7c 9d Ac] [Jc]
skoldpadda9 shows a straight, Jack high
Phillyfan92 shows two pair, Nines and Sevens
skoldpadda9 wins the pot ($50.45) with a straight, Jack high
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $53.10 | Rake $2.65


I wanted a blank turn before I got it in because of all the potential draws and a relatively small pot. Villain's aggression on the flop nearly assures me that I will be able to CRAI on the turn if a blank hits. FWIW, I think he played the hand horribly when he called my turn bet.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

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Dangerous check-raise. Aren't we worried about giving free river cards to all those mega strong draws that just became less mega-strong?
 
SeanyJ

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My analysis of this is that you posted the results too fast. =(
 
blankoblanco

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just get it in on the flop. there are so few hands he's raising on this sort of board multiway that he's folding to a half-stack shove. you're out of position and there are approx a million cards that kill your action/confuse you enough to inhibit your ability to get value

guaranteed action killers: any of 10 remaining diamonds, 2 other 6s, 3 8s, 4 Js = 19 bad cards. that's not even counting the times the board pairing will kill your action whenever he has two pair using the other cards

get the money in on the flop!
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Would you guys agree that the biggest part of this guy's range is 2 pair (T9, 97, maybe T7), J8, or hands like JT. A set of 7's or 9's is possible, as well as QdJd, or KdJd, but those are smaller parts of his range.

There are a lot of combinations of 2 pair hands & JT hands, and something like J8 maybe be a hand worth limping with from UTG for a loose player.

I'm just worried that by trying to stack off on the flop, we'll lose some hands we could make more from, especially if the turn comes blank. Bottom 2 pair and JT may be more willing to get it in if the turn comes blank, but we might lose them 3-betting the flop. And there's a ~65% chance of the turn coming blank, and if he's holding JT, we *certainly* stand to earn more by just calling. Idk, I think there's a decent arguement to both sides this time. I wish we could play through the scenario again, and see if he'd stack off with bottom 2 pair on the flop.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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almost noone at 50max is folding 2 pair to a half stack on this board. again, we're OOP and there's like a billion draws we could be pushing. he even still stacked off when the ACE hit, which is far from a good card for him when we're shoving, because A9 and AT both overtook him. in fact, the way skold played it, it would have been much easier for me to get away from it on the turn. i wouldn't expect him to play a draw that way. bottom two is like always crushed there

pokerstove it. we're like 70% against his range best calling range on the flop, and that's including when he has J8 for the nuts. and there's at least a 40% chance of an action killing card coming. when you include the board pairing, it can be over half the deck
 
ChuckTs

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Gotta agree with combu here for reasons he's already stated. We get action from a lot of worse hands, are rarely actually behind, and see tons of scare cards and action killing cards on the turn.

Just get it in on the flop.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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what's your plan having called the flop if the turn is...

(a) Ad
(b) Jd
(c) 8s
(d) Th?

the thing here is we're OOP, and if a scare card falls (and a lot of scare cards can fall here), it will kill our action should we be ahead or lead to us calling off chips while way behind. basically we're OOP, we don't want to get too deep into a hand where all sorts of nasty things can happen, we obviously have huge equity against villain's range, and villain has shown that he's pretty interested in the hand.

make a sizeable 3-bet on the flop, then you make your turn decision easy (assuming villain doesn't shove over you and you actually have a turn decision to make).

edit: ^ basically what kathy liebert jr up there said.
 
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c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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I understand what you guys are saying. What if, say, I myself am playing this hand? I'm definately folding bottom 2 to a big fat re-raise, especially on that board, because I'm either coin-flipping with a fat draw, or am crushed by sets, bigger 2-pair, or straights.

However, I would raise a lead out by most opponents just to charge draws more, and figure out where I am in the hand with 2-pair, or even top pair and a J. However, I wouldn't be stacking off with it. I just think the range of hands that villain would raise the flop with, but won't shove all in with is rather big here.

And since I think most sane individuals won't stack off with bottom 2 (but might on the turn), is it worth a 60% chance to make more off of those hands? Or should we just stuff it in, and if they fold, we take their 4$ and run? We earned an extra 22$ by getting to the turn and seeing a blank, assuming the he wouldn't shove all in on the flop.

See what I'm driving at? If 60-70% of the villain's range will fold if we raise to $12 on the flop, but some of that range will get it in on the turn, shouldn't we take the 60% chance the turn comes blank and consider just flat calling?
 
ChuckTs

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Well that's the thing - you're a 'good' player, where as the average 50nl player is 'bad'. They're not letting go of two pair.

I'm not sure what "fairly solid and plays lots of starting hands" means, but the average 50nl player will stack here with any set/two pair/combo draw, and it's well worth getting our money in at this point.

By 3-betting now we're only scaring out the one pair hands, but even then we might get action from AT/KT.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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Well that's the thing - you're a 'good' player, where as the average 50nl player is 'bad'. They're not letting go of two pair.

I'm not sure what "fairly solid and plays lots of starting hands" means, but the average 50nl player will stack here with any set/two pair/combo draw, and it's well worth getting our money in at this point.

By 3-betting now we're only scaring out the one pair hands, but even then we might get action from AT/KT.
Well yeah, I know the average 50NL player is bad. I'm sorta changing the scenario. Lets say we're playing this hand against you, Mr. ChuckTs, who is much less willing to go stacking away with 2 pair. Is our line any different?

What I'm driving at is this: What is more important? Getting value from the weaker side of a player's range, or making our turn decision an easy one by possibly ending the hand?
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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I played it for value obv and in position I'm not afraid to make that turn decision when the time comes. This time it was easy. If a scare card hits I do have a more difficult decision but I did not see this player CR as a semi-bluff but as a made hand. I was more concerned about the board pairing because I thought he had a set or 2 pair. And the pot on the flop is relatively small still so there is no reason to push it there imo.
 
ChuckTs

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That's some pretty bad reasoning there, skold.

That's like saying "I called kings because I wanted to get my money in on a non-ace flop" - it has faulty logic. You have an equity edge against his range right now, and that's why you get your money in.

If you think he's got a made hand here, you should definitely be reraising for value.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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i limp-called utg with 32o because if the flop came 333 and some guy has aces i'd be rich! :p
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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If you think he's got a made hand here, you should definitely be reraising for value.

Yes, that is correct. If I put him on a range of 2 pair or set though, I know I can get it on the turn with even better EV. I like keeping the pot smaller with 2 cards to come. I'm not convinced my play here is bad but definitely more conservative.
 
ChuckTs

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I know what you mean skold, but it's still faulty thinking. In this situation there are just too many cards that will either kill your action or kill your actual hand.

What if you call and see a ten? Then you check-fold?

That's not conservative, that's overly weak-tight.

There are some spots where you should be waiting until the turn to raise. This isn't one of them though - you have a huge equity edge now and you should be exploiting that edge asap.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.271% 68.47% 01.80% 48808 1281.50 { 8d6h }
Hand 1: 29.729% 27.93% 01.80% 19909 1281.50 { 99+, 77, J8s, T9s, T7s, 97s, J8o, T9o, T7o, 97o }

Add in flush draws and AT type hands and we only become a bigger favourite.
 
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