$500 NL HE 6-max: Would you bluff here or would you give up?

pentazepam

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Both have a lot of Qx but since button 4-bet some of his better Qs I guess the SB with his 3-bet or fold range has a little more combinations (please don't make me do math or look at a solver).

So if you combine the range advantage with the fact that he also bet some Ax twice I guess it is a standard all-in bluff on the river. The A on the river adds a little more pressure on the button since he can't only defend when he hits trips or better.

So probably pretty standard GTO-poker from both players.


P S

Old school 3 seconds analyses so don't criticize me too hard. I'm still a proud "feel player".
 
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fundiver199

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I might give up on the turn, when my JTs dont pick up any equity. But if he barrel turn, I think, its pretty mandatory to empty the clip on the river, since its difficult for him to have worse showdown value than J high. Just a bit unlucky for him, that BTN had A8 and improved on the river.
 
DanielNeg

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That’s a good call mate!!
Saulo is capable of doing that with any two cards however here you outplayed him!!
 
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Not sure this is a great bluff but who am I to criticise Saulo!? Seems like the turn calling range will have too much Qx to make this worth bluffing river.

Not sure who has more Qx I would guess fairly even in these positions
 
Mr_Kk13

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Both have a lot of Qx but since button 4-bet some of his better Qs I guess the SB with his 3-bet or fold range has a little more combinations (please don't make me do math or look at a solver).

So if you combine the range advantage with the fact that he also bet some Ax twice I guess it is a standard all-in bluff on the river. The A on the river adds a little more pressure on the button since he can't only defend when he hits trips or better.

So probably pretty standard GTO-poker from both players.


P S

Old school 3 seconds analyses so don't criticize me too hard. I'm still a proud "feel player".
I would never criticize you mate! You took time to share your thought process and analyze the hand, you did not have to do, so thank you!
I agree with the analysis, especially about the A on the river.
 
Mr_Kk13

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I might give up on the turn, when my JTs dont pick up any equity. But if he barrel turn, I think, its pretty mandatory to empty the clip on the river, since its difficult for him to have worse showdown value than J high. Just a bit unlucky for him, that BTN had A8 and improved on the river.
Since he follows that line, he is bottom of range on the river, and he can make fold hands like pocket pairs that got to the river, I think
 
Mr_Kk13

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That’s a good call mate!!
Saulo is capable of doing that with any two cards however here you outplayed him!!
I am not in the hand mate, I play micros, but Saulo is a very strong reg. I am the creator of the channel though, and I post the hands here in order to get analysis that will help me improve my game. Also, I believe that aspiring players will find the channel useful as well!
 
Mr_Kk13

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Not sure this is a great bluff but who am I to criticise Saulo!? Seems like the turn calling range will have too much Qx to make this worth bluffing river.

Not sure who has more Qx I would guess fairly even in these positions
Saulo is very strong indeed, I believe he follows through with the bluff because he is bottom of range and wants to make pocket pairs fold, especially when the A comes on the river.
 
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fundiver199

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Saulo is very strong indeed, I believe he follows through with the bluff because he is bottom of range and wants to make pocket pairs fold, especially when the A comes on the river.
Exactly. If A8 of diamonds is in BTNs range after the turn, then 99-JJ is almost certainly also in there, and those hands are much tougher to call with on the A river. They are also far more common with 18 combos against just 2 combos of A8s, so as I say it was just a bit unlucky to run into that exact hand. A8 is also no more than a bluff catcher, but it does at least block some of the boats, so I would guess, solvers have that hand as a call far more than 99-JJ. There are also players, who fail to understand, their pair of 8´s are counterfeited by a higher pair on the board, but I would expect to see that much less at 500NL than 5NL :)
 
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Exactly. If A8 of diamonds is in BTNs range after the turn, then 99-JJ is almost certainly also in there, and those hands are much tougher to call with on the A river. They are also far more common with 18 combos against just 2 combos of A8s, so as I say it was just a bit unlucky to run into that exact hand. A8 is also no more than a bluff catcher, but it does at least block some of the boats, so I would guess, solvers have that hand as a call far more than 99-JJ. There are also players, who fail to understand, their pair of 8´s are counterfeited by a higher pair on the board, but I would expect to see that much less at 500NL than 5NL :)
I was thinking the same but from the point of view that I dont like JT as a bluff as we block the hands we are trying to fold. Those 18 combos become 12. Meanwhile there are 8 combos of KQ, some QJ and QT no doubt and whilst AQ will often be 4bet there could be some combos and the 2 A8s which I think is a fine bluff catcher, after all Saulo presumably isn't value betting Ax on the river? (Maybe he does but it feels too thin)
 
SES Inc.

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Whiskey river take me home......it is always the river in the end that wins
 
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fundiver199

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I was thinking the same but from the point of view that I dont like JT as a bluff as we block the hands we are trying to fold. Those 18 combos become 12.
I thought about that to. But on the other hand what do we bluff the flop and turn with if not the gutshots? All this GTO stuff is pretty complicated :)
 
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I thought about that to. But on the other hand what do we bluff the flop and turn with if not the gutshots? All this GTO stuff is pretty complicated :)
Yep, it is! If Saulo is bluffing here, it is probably the right play!
 
Aballinamion

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Also, who has the Qx advantage here?
Interesting hand. When the aggressor 3-bets preflop and double barrels flop-turn, his intention is to jam on 90% of rivers because the defendor might fold at least 50% of times which makes his move automatically profitable in spite of the defendor's action.
As played, and always considering and adapting this same situation to lower stakes, I would never bluff like this. When we bluff we can own a bunch of good hands including QQ, AQ, AK, AJ, AA, etc but are we really playing like this when we own these hands? I don't think so. The aggressor has the queen advantage but it should've picked another spot to try to bluff it. If we are bluffing here with a missed runner-runner we are overbluffing and I'm not sure if this is too much profitable in the long run. As we observed, the defendor called flop and turn having just a single pair of eights, when, in my opinion, the defendor should've folded on the turn.
 
Mr_Kk13

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Interesting hand. When the aggressor 3-bets preflop and double barrels flop-turn, his intention is to jam on 90% of rivers because the defendor might fold at least 50% of times which makes his move automatically profitable in spite of the defendor's action.
As played, and always considering and adapting this same situation to lower stakes, I would never bluff like this. When we bluff we can own a bunch of good hands including QQ, AQ, AK, AJ, AA, etc but are we really playing like this when we own these hands? I don't think so. The aggressor has the queen advantage but it should've picked another spot to try to bluff it. If we are bluffing here with a missed runner-runner we are overbluffing and I'm not sure if this is too much profitable in the long run. As we observed, the defendor called flop and turn having just a single pair of eights, when, in my opinion, the defendor should've folded on the turn.
I like the analysis mate! I agree, I would never bluff like this at lower stakes, focus on getting max value against this player.
 
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