$50 NLHE Full Ring: Don't gamble with nit fish

John A

John A

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TSIA. Nit was 8/5 after 70 hands.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.50(BB)
BB ($47.56)
UTG ($43.26)
EP ($88.41)
MP1 ($11.25)
MP2 ($54.73)
HJ ($42.55)
CO ($14.84)
BTN ($228.10)
HERO ($73.02)

Dealt to Hero: Q Q

UTG Calls $0.50, EP Folds, MP1 Calls $0.50, MP2 Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $3, BB Calls $2.50, UTG Raises To $43.26 (allin), MP1 Folds, HERO Folds, BB Calls $40.26

Flop ($90.02): T 5 T

Turn ($90.02): T 5 T K

River ($90.02): T 5 T K 6

BB shows: 9 9
UTG shows: A A

UTG wins: $86.02
 
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fundiver199

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Well played. When someone with stats like this limp UTG and then jam facing an isolation raise, it really smells like aces or kings. You got the information, you needed, by putting in the isolation raise, and you lost the absolute minimum from a cooler situation :)
 
GreenDaddy1

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The post I needed 4 days ago when my QQ got stacked by AA in a similar spot haha.

Good fold :)
 
puzzlefish

puzzlefish

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This is one of the most boring and overused traps, yet it still somehow catches the fish.
 
John A

John A

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The post I needed 4 days ago when my QQ got stacked by AA in a similar spot haha.

Good fold :)

Haha... yeah, it's funny that this ever works. I was testing some features on the drivehud hud when this hand came up and I laughed, because I haven't seen someone try to do this in quite some time.

He did have AA, and the other guy called w/ 99. The guy had insanely nitty stats, but it's kind of funny the other guy snap called him and I snap folded. Spoiler isn't showing for me for some reason.
 
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fundiver199

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Yeah its funny, how simple poker can sometimes be. Just wait for aces, make the most obvious play in the world, and let some fish put all his money in with 99, because he dont want to be pushed around by a bully. Or whatever reason fish find to make these big calls :)
 
Alex_Ogienko

Alex_Ogienko

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The classic fish case). Nice fold. My question is - is there a fold of kings here?
 
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fundiver199

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Folding KK preflop is a rare thing, but this is one of the situations, where it should at least be considered. Is a nit doing this with QQ, AK or a wild bluff? Probably not. And when we have KK, that pretty much leaves him with AA :)
 
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gustav197poker

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The money previous in the pot does not justify the investment with QQ. He doesn't even justify it with KK. In this case, hero must invest 13.42 times the size of the pot, to win 2.07 times the amount invested.
On the other hand, the villain needs to bluff at least 48.20% of the time for the hero call to be profitable. And given the position of the villain UTG, it is extremely difficult to know this for sure, when we have a sample of 70 hands.
If we go further and assume that the villain has a different image like: 50/30/20, we are still far away when the sample has 70 hands, because this size has a minimum margin of error of 30%, if we take 100 as the base.
Based on a macro look, we have a clear range disadvantage to a UTG limper, who most likely decided to cheat us preflop. I liked how you played it, I would have played it exactly the same.
Greetings.
 
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gustav197poker

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The money previous in the pot does not justify the investment with QQ. He doesn't even justify it with KK. In this case, hero must invest 13.42 times the size of the pot, to win 2.07 times the amount invested.
On the other hand, the villain needs to bluff at least 48.20% of the time for the hero call to be profitable. And given the position of the villain UTG, it is extremely difficult to know this for sure, when we have a sample of 70 hands.
If we go further and assume that the villain has a different image like: 50/30/20, we are still far away when the sample has 70 hands, because this size has a minimum margin of error of 30%, if we take 100 as the base.
Based on a macro look, we have a clear range disadvantage to a UTG limper, who most likely decided to cheat us preflop. I liked how you played it, I would have played it exactly the same.
Greetings.

Correction: hero must reverse more than 6 times the size that the pot was, before the villain's push. And we would only get a net profit of less than 2 times the value after of jam
 
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gustav197poker

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I think the main lesson for this hand should be: Don't put too much money in a pot that doesn't deserve it. Because even if we make a mistake, we will lose a minimum amount compared to what it means to pay a lot of money, in a boat that initially had very little. And in the same way, if we think that the opponent has a wide range, it is not worth taking the risk in places like these either.
The great real help that the HUD offers will be decisive in making the final action. But in order for it to take precedence over all the other factors mentioned above (rank positional disadvantage, exaggerated investment in small initial pot) it is necessary that the sample size it be large enough. And 70 hands is not enough IMHO to achieve such an effect. Here we should call with AA and to fold the other hands, unless our HUD indicates that the villain has a wide range, for example in a sample of 300 hands. I think in those cases the risk is justified, thanks to our HUD, when the starting pot had a ridiculous amount of money before the big overbet.
 
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