$50 NLHE Full Ring: Broadway in 3bet pot on bleh board

[switch0723]

$50 NL HE Full Ring: Broadway in 3bet pot on bleh board

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 60/20/1.6

stats are only over 35 hands, but villain is clearly a fish

UTG+1: $49.65 (99.3 bb)
MP1: $78.90 (157.8 bb)
MP2: $21.25 (42.5 bb)
MP3: $151 (302 bb)
Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
BTN: $67.60 (135.2 bb)
SB: $10 (20 bb)
BB: $13.90 (27.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with K

A

2 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, MP3 raises to $2, Hero raises to $7, 4 folds, MP3 calls $5

Flop: ($15.25) Q

J

3

(2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($15.25) Q

(2 players)
MP3 bets $6, Hero calls $6

River: ($27.25) T

(2 players)
MP3 bets $14, Hero ????

Question is do we flat it or do we ship it?

 

[zachvac]

hmm interesting. Problem is only thing we get value from is Qx-type hands. Good thing is his line looks a ton like AQ. Problem is QJ/QT are also in his range here. Other thing he is a fish so he's likely not folding Qx to a shove and might not even fold a J. idk honestly I think this one is really close and as long as you don't fold neither option is much of a mistake. I guess I lean towards shoving here though. If he's weak/tight or somewhat competent I'd lean towards flatting.

 

[Tygran]

I'm kinda with Zach on this one... I don't think either is really a mistake and I'm pretty split.

I'd probably lean towards just calling it though just because that last card was a spade combined with the fact villain checked flop... I would generally expect someone with those stats to bet out if he had top pair on the flop. I would also not be at all surprised to see him start betting out if he picked up the flush draw on the turn.

OTOH if he's bad enough to take this line with stuff like AJ or 99, etc... I might lean towards the shove a tad more but it sounds like you don't have enough to make this determination yet so at this point I still lean slightly to the flat call.