$50 NL HE 6-max: Would I have to get 100% value on the river?

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gustav197poker

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pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.25/$0.50 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/625e5RNPt

UTG: $65.25 (131 bb)
MP: $50.00 (100 bb)
CO: $75.59 (151 bb)
BU: $67.53 (135 bb)
SB (Hero): $51.50 (103 bb)
BB: $48.62 (97 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with A♥ A♠
4 players fold, Hero raises to $1.25, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.50) 3♥ 2♥ J♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.43, Hero calls $1.43

Turn: ($5.36) K♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.68, Hero calls $1.68

River: ($8.72) 9♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $6.21, Hero raises to $24.25, BB calls $18.04

Total pot: $57.22 (Rake: $2)

Showdown:
SB (Hero) shows A♥ A♠ (a flush, Ace high)
(equity - Pre-Flop: 88%, Flop: 97%, Turn: 91%, River: 100%)

BB mucks 4♣ K♥ (a flush, King high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 12%, Flop: 3%, Turn: 9%, River: 0%)

SB (Hero) wins $55.22
 
Aballinamion

Aballinamion

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PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.25/$0.50 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/625e5RNPt

UTG: $65.25 (131 bb)
MP: $50.00 (100 bb)
CO: $75.59 (151 bb)
BU: $67.53 (135 bb)
SB (Hero): $51.50 (103 bb)
BB: $48.62 (97 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with A♥ A♠
4 players fold, Hero raises to $1.25, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.50) 3♥ 2♥ J♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.43, Hero calls $1.43

Turn: ($5.36) K♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.68, Hero calls $1.68

River: ($8.72) 9♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $6.21, Hero raises to $24.25, BB calls $18.04

Total pot: $57.22 (Rake: $2)

Showdown:
SB (Hero) shows A♥ A♠ (a flush, Ace high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 88%, Flop: 97%, Turn: 91%, River: 100%)

BB mucks 4♣ K♥ (a flush, King high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 12%, Flop: 3%, Turn: 9%, River: 0%)

SB (Hero) wins $55.22
Preflop okay. OTF we could be raising immediately for we own so many hands and bluffs from SB. Calling is also fine for the same reason: we open too much from SB and miss most of flops when we are stealing. It’s a close decision between calling and raising. I would go for raising here to build the pot.
OTT we are certainly raising to build the pot as soon as possible. If villain folds okay, but as long villain is betting (observing that villain began the hand broken stacked) we have a strong motive to raise and build the pot ASAP.
OTR we raised but we could’ve raise even more and go for total Exploitative gambling: villain isn’t scared about a 4-liner flush of hearts and have bet narrowly the size of the pot: when we are facing players that we know to be recreational ones there’s no problem to play total unbalanced and do nonsense things, like raise jamming this river.
Most of hands that aren’t bound with a hearts on its range would be checking behind to realize equity.
The showdown has demonstrated that villain can be in fact a recreational player: defending K4o in this spot: this is the type of hand that can be played in tournaments, i.e, villain should’ve folded preflop.
I know that some professionals will say “that’s okay to defend K4o when SB x BB”, but they are professionals and we are just students and regulars. We are not that good to dive in such a deep meta-thinking and as long as we are normal/regulars players, we are simply folding here.
If we put ourselves a bit more on BB’s shoes, we could be 3-betting K4s versus SB’s steal. (If we have HUD data specially).
 
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Station_Master

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Do you know villain was a fish before the hand?

I think overall it's fine (flop bet is too big for this type of board, but not a big issue). Even mid hand villains line looks fishy with his donk and it seems he has a flush, so maybe he calls a bigger river raise, but anyway you bet nearly pot so I think it is fine
 
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300HPGOD

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Pre: seems fine, Ive made my pitch before that I like 3x open sizing in cash games but if your standard raise size is 2.5x (as I have seen on your other hands as well) then its what you should do here so all good.

Flop: My question would be are you c betting if you had air here? I think you would be as open raising from the SB is always going to be interpreted as wide so when we check here we may give off a vibe we dont want to. Villain dependent as always but I prefer betting out here as it should be called wide by villain and we clearly have a value hand. When they bet after we check I would be happy of course and with it being near 60% pot I would just call as we own the nut flush draw so villain cant have that and I think there is too much they would just be stabbing at the pot with so raising here just makes them fold in a spot where I would not want them to fold.

Turn: As played clear check to villain but when they bet so small I am inclined to raise here. If they had bet larger (say 60% pot or more) then I am fine with calling or raising but here when they go so small it feels like they are clearly pot controlling and I do not want the pot controlled, I want max value. I would raise here and hope villain then calls. I would not be folding if they jumped over me but not sure what hand would bet that sizing on turn that would then raise my raise. Maybe KJ with the K of hearts but that is literally it. That hand should be betting more on the turn anyway so I would not be concerned about their holding as far as if it beats us but just worried now about keeping the pot built.

River: Very good card for us. I think villain mostly has Jx here just on bet sizing alone (shows what I know) so I would be afraid to check to them here for fear that they check back a lot of the time. I think as played I would lead here and hope they think Im bluffing. Otherwise I would be dependent on them having a heart or bluffing if I checked to them as you did here and I think their one pair non heart hands just take showdown value and checkback. As played luckily we do get a bet from them and its big. Big bets here can be fairly strong flushes (10 through K, obviously J on board) or could be a bluff. Comes down to how big of a bet would Q of hearts call (I use the mid card when thinking about their hand in these spots) and that is villain dependent. I dont think they call a shove with Q of hearts (without knowing them) and should definitely doubt a call with even K of hearts there so I like your sizing. Easy for us to be results O and be like "They had 2nd nuts I should have jammed" but they just as easily could have the 10 or Q so we need to make it a sizing that covers all of those bases and I think your does. I honestly would have gone a little smaller in game (something like 3.5x to $22 ish) but I like your sizing a bit more to be honest.
 
Aballinamion

Aballinamion

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Pre: seems fine, Ive made my pitch before that I like 3x open sizing in cash games but if your standard raise size is 2.5x (as I have seen on your other hands as well) then its what you should do here so all good.

Flop: My question would be are you c betting if you had air here? I think you would be as open raising from the SB is always going to be interpreted as wide so when we check here we may give off a vibe we dont want to. Villain dependent as always but I prefer betting out here as it should be called wide by villain and we clearly have a value hand. When they bet after we check I would be happy of course and with it being near 60% pot I would just call as we own the nut flush draw so villain cant have that and I think there is too much they would just be stabbing at the pot with so raising here just makes them fold in a spot where I would not want them to fold.

Turn: As played clear check to villain but when they bet so small I am inclined to raise here. If they had bet larger (say 60% pot or more) then I am fine with calling or raising but here when they go so small it feels like they are clearly pot controlling and I do not want the pot controlled, I want max value. I would raise here and hope villain then calls. I would not be folding if they jumped over me but not sure what hand would bet that sizing on turn that would then raise my raise. Maybe KJ with the K of hearts but that is literally it. That hand should be betting more on the turn anyway so I would not be concerned about their holding as far as if it beats us but just worried now about keeping the pot built.

River: Very good card for us. I think villain mostly has Jx here just on bet sizing alone (shows what I know) so I would be afraid to check to them here for fear that they check back a lot of the time. I think as played I would lead here and hope they think Im bluffing. Otherwise I would be dependent on them having a heart or bluffing if I checked to them as you did here and I think their one pair non heart hands just take showdown value and checkback. As played luckily we do get a bet from them and its big. Big bets here can be fairly strong flushes (10 through K, obviously J on board) or could be a bluff. Comes down to how big of a bet would Q of hearts call (I use the mid card when thinking about their hand in these spots) and that is villain dependent. I dont think they call a shove with Q of hearts (without knowing them) and should definitely doubt a call with even K of hearts there so I like your sizing. Easy for us to be results O and be like "They had 2nd nuts I should have jammed" but they just as easily could have the 10 or Q so we need to make it a sizing that covers all of those bases and I think your does. I honestly would have gone a little smaller in game (something like 3.5x to $22 ish) but I like your sizing a bit more to be honest.
Hey mate very good points you brought, as always. I feel myself glad that we have a contribution like yours on the forum. And I will be even happier if you stay with us. Thanks for your participation and well detailed analysis! 😊

Best regards;
 
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300HPGOD

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Hey mate very good points you brought, as always. I feel myself glad that we have a contribution like yours on the forum. And I will be even happier if you stay with us. Thanks for your participation and well detailed analysis! 😊

Best regards;
Thank you for the kind words. I am usually over in the tournament hand analysis section but look at the cash hands once in a while. I think I get more joy looking at the hands people posted and thinking about them than I do playing. Very happy that others seem to be enjoying my thoughts and opinions as much as I enjoy sharing them.
 
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