$5 NLHE Full Ring: My LAG Hand: 76s can you count the outs?

[fx20736]

$5 NL HE Full Ring: My LAG Hand: 76s can you count the outs?

I've been getting battered lately so I decided to switch gears totally for a session, my VPIP went up by 50%. My stack was up and down like a yo-yo and then I got this:

Full Tilt - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3: http://www.pokertracker.com
MP: $5.00
MP+1: $1.75
Hero (CO): $5.06
BTN: $4.76
SB: $2.09
BB: $5.48
UTG: $4.10
UTG+1: $4.48
SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05
Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has 6d 7d
fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.17, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.17, fold, fold, BB calls $0.12
Flop: ($0.53, 3 players) 6s 3s 4d

So I flop top pair, a gutshot straight draw and a back door flush draw

BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.35, BB calls $0.35, UTG+1 calls $0.35
Turn: ($1.58, 3 players) Kd

Ok, now I've got a flush draw

BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.70, fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.68,

Villain check raises me, forcing me to play for stacks. Assuming he has AK I can improve to trips, a flush, a straight or two pair. If he isn't suited in Diamonds I guess that's about 16 outs???

Hero raises to $4.54 and is all-in, UTG+1 calls $0.28 and is all-in
River: ($9.50, 2 players) 7h

I actually hit!!!!!!!!!
Hero shows 6d 7d (Two Pair, Sevens and Sixes)
UTG+1 shows Ah Kh (One Pair, Kings)

Hero wins $8.87

I guess I can mix it up once in a while!

 

[TorreyB]

Not sure if you'll find this useful or not, but I tossed this hand into two simulators to see what kind of numbers get generated and here's what I got.

Strength of your hand when the turn card Kd came out was 69% (out of 2.3 million trials).

Draw probabilities by the river based on the current 4 cards on the table:

Pair: 45.65%
Two Pair: 23.91%
Three of a Kind: 4.35%
Straight: 6.52%
Flush: 19.57%

When both hands are placed into the showdown calculator it shows your win rate as 38.6% and his being 61.4% as the board stands at the turn.

 

[bgomez89]

probably should check turn as they probably have kings in their range and we don't really have something too strong yet

 

[wrung24]

At this level, a turn raise is a very big sign of strength, he obviously liked the king. How has he played up until now, calling way too much postflop I guess. If he is then I think the turn bet is fine, but I'm really not sure about calling the shove with just a pair, albeit with a lot of outs.

Has this guy been raising a lot preflop ? If he hasn't then you have to assume he is pretty strong preflop, so you're hoping to be up against AJ+ and TT+ or something like that. In this case a check could possibly give you a free card on the river which in this case puts you ahead. (BTW don't send results in your hand posts, it biases the analysis).

Nice win anyway

 

[fx20736]

sorry about posting the results. I just put 2 new hands on but will omit going forward

thanks