This is a discussion on $5 NLHE 6-max: Donk bet Agression from EP within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/18/3
How much should we call? for how long? Only story that makes sense from this guy is 2 pair... want to know
I lean towards folding the turn here. First off this is not the greatest board for you, because his limp-call range can probably contain all the 2 pair combinations, both suited and unsuited. Which make this way worse than for instance Q72, where even a fish will rarely have flopped two pair.
There are also a bunch of draws, he can have, but you actually block some of some, which is also not great. He is less likely to have KQ or QT, because you have a Q, and its impossible for him to have AX of diamonds, which is a hand, bad players might sometimes get confused about and overplay.
Finally and maybe most important you are not getting a good price, and I also think, two pot sized bets are a bet sizing tell. If he has a draw, would he really pick this sizing and give himself a terrible price? I don’t think so, and this guy is certainly bad enough to not use the same bet size with made hands and draws.
When he pot the flop, it could be a wild bluff or an overplayed AT type hand, but in my experience a bad player will then typically slow down on the turn, when he get action. When he pot the turn as well, I think, this is pretty much always two pair or a set. Something nutted, that he want to stack off on the river.
So unless you have seen him do this before and show up with a wild bluff, I think, you can give him credit and let him have this one rather than continuing to pay off his huge bets. Of course if it happen hand after hand, that is a different story. Then I might at some point jam the turn and force him to show me a better hand.
Would need more info on how often this V pots it when they bet to add anything constructive. 100 hands of history should be enough to know if they are potting it more often than merited. The frustrating part is that his value range is so thin. AJ and all the sets should be raising pre with 17% PFR. That only leaves A9 and J9 for value and we block the Ace. Not a lot of combos. Also A6 that bluffed flop got there but that goes to the first point of how often he's potting it with value or bluffs in the last 100 hands.
If we do decide to continue on the turn I think it should be by jamming instead of calling with only about 1/2 pot bet left on the river.
teh_colonel_saigon, eetenor, gustav197poker liked this post
re: Poker & $5 NLHE 6-max: Donk bet Agression from EP
The way villain played, they are representing AJo, A9s, 99, probably some combo draw like QKdd or once in a hundred years he decided to open limp AA.
Generally they shouldn't open limp with either of those hands unless it was a missclick.
Taking into account the donking and pot size betting every turn, we can safely assume they are a weaker player.
But their stats don't show any aggression so this is almost never a bluff.
I would call river vs a loose opponent but vs this one it's a fold.
I would try to find a fold on the turn. His hand to me looks like a strong made hand, especially given that you are blocking but draws.
I would also fold turn because I would not know which is a good river card. I can hardly think of one. And then what to do if he bets again?