$25NL; TT overpair to flop, how to figure out if I'm behind a bigger overpair?

NineLions

NineLions

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There has to be a better line to take with this.

Villain is 20/9 or so over 30 hands. Hasn't shown anything out of line. I'm 11/4 over this period having been pretty card dead.

I briefly consider 3-betting preflop just to test what he has, but decide to call with position, hoping for a set or a favorable flop.



Stacks:

* MP1 with $26.10
* MP2 with $24.40
* CO with $22.90
* BTN with $18.55
* SB with $25.10
* BB with $14.95
* UTG with $17.65
* UTG+1 with $25.10

hand.pl


hand.pl

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to CO:T♠ T♣
* * Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
* * 3 players fold.
* * MP2 raises $0.75 to $1
* * Hero calls [$1]
* * 3 players folded.
* * Total folds this street: 6
* * Potsize: $2.35
Flop:
* * 8♠ 6♦ 8♣
* * MP2 bets [$1.75]
* * 3 players fold.
* * Hero ???

I don't expect A8 here, or 66 (at $25 mid/small pairs are usually only minraised by bad players preflop, very few full raise with these), or 79. That limits it to c-bet of a missed flop, or an overpair.

If I just call the flop, I'm giving overcards a chance to hit. If I reraise, am I committing my stack if I plan to call down with 2 streets of betting yet to come? What's the best line?


(HH converter note: 3 more players folded the flop after 6 folded preflop?)
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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pf is fine - we don't have all that much of an edge over an EP raiser with these medium pairs, but we can use our position postflop to our advantage.

Postflop we can raise it, but that's basically turning our hand into a bluff. When you've got an overpair like this, it's essentially a wa/wb situation, but you're less ahead since he's almost got a 'strong' draw with 6 overcard outs to your TT here.

This is where your C-bet turn % comes in handy - if villain is likely (%60+ I'd say?) to double barrel, then it's going to be much tougher for us to continue (esp with overcards dropping on the turn), and we should be more inclined to raise this flop bet. If we're 3-bet, we're mucking our hand almost always.

The smaller his turn c-bet % is, the more likely we should be to call and then bet the turn when checked to.

Just as with a wa/wb situation (say KK on an Axx flop), the less comfortable we are, the more inclined we should be to raise here (or bet in the KK ex).
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

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as a default line, i call and usually fold to a decent sized barrel on the turn. IME you're not going to get double barreled by overcards on a blank turn very often. your call will generally rep at least a pocket pair, and he can be afraid of an 8/66 as well
 
NineLions

NineLions

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I think combu's idea is probably the best idea. Less pot bloating with a good but not definitely ahead hand. The turn aggression is a good idea too, though I don't often sit at a single table more than 100 hands so I wouldn't get much data in that area.

It does seem like a wa/wb situation, except I'm not ahead of much other than overcards, and I'm vulnerable to them drawing out on me, unlike a KK when an Ace flops. So I guess a vulnerably ahead/way behind situation.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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Yea I call the flop here lots as well, villian is very likely to slow down with UI overs on the turn. Re-evaluate turn. Remember a lot of players on nl$25-100 tend to make the mistake of C-betting into too many players. We could also take the line of raise /fold.
 
F

feitr

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Since you have position, i'd probably call then hope he checks the turn. If he does check the turn, you can probably put him on AK/AQ or w/e and bet out close to pot size and he'll probably fold.

You could also reraise him, and if he calls then checks the turn you can bet out knowing you have the best hand.

Both kinda accomplish the same thing if he has overcards, but reraising is riskier if he actaully has a hand. It would be an easy decision if you had seen him play more and knew his cbet%s.
 
NineLions

NineLions

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Since you have position, i'd probably call then hope he checks the turn. If he does check the turn, you can probably put him on AK/AQ or w/e and bet out close to pot size and he'll probably fold.

You could also reraise him, and if he calls then checks the turn you can bet out knowing you have the best hand.

Both kinda accomplish the same thing if he has overcards, but reraising is riskier if he actaully has a hand. It would be an easy decision if you had seen him play more and knew his cbet%s.

What if we raise his flop bet, he calls, checks the turn, we bet, and then he either calls or shoves? The there's a lot in the pot and I'm no longer sure whether he's bluffing because it's a big pot or he's successfully committed me with a bigger pair.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Getting called after a flop raise does not mean we 'know we're ahead'. It means exactly the opposite.

If we raise the flop - which isn't terrible but is probably the less +EV move - we cannot continue UI without some fantastic reads which you obviously don't have. Villain bet-calling a raise on the flop with AK isn't out of the question, but with that action, a pair or better is the biggest part of his range and we should be giving up.
 
F

feitr

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Ya i did say that calling was the best option tho (reraising will get you the same results in the best case scenario, and in big trouble if he has the overpair).

And yea i guess that it is possible if he had QQ or something, he would just check the turn, then reraise you when you bet...i wrote it pretty quick before i class so wasn't really thinking. But he'll also check with AK and there is a good chance he would lead out on the turn with an overpair, since there isn't that much point giving somebody a chance to check and outdraw you if you have the best hand at that point, unless you are positive you have the best hand and positive that he will bet so you can reraise.

The guy is either wb/wa, coz if you hit any piece of that flop he is in big trouble, and if he has an overpair he is miles ahead. So i personally can't see him checking the turn with an overpair and then trying to shove if you bet. If he thinks he is way ahead why wouldn't he lead out on the turn or even reraise your reraise on the flop?

But as i said i think that calling is the best option...
 
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