[25nl FR] Good Fold??

icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Villain: 15/10/1.4

full tilt poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP1: $25.40
MP2: $9.65
CO: $10.10
BTN: $26.30
SB: $33.60
BB: $5.35
Hero (UTG): $32
UTG+1: $25

Pre-Flop: 5
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5
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dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $1.10, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.85

Flop: ($2.55) 9
spadenormal.gif
J
clubnormal.gif
5
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(2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $1.75, Hero raises to $4.75, UTG+1 calls $3

Turn: ($12.05) 3
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero bets $6, UTG+1 raises to $19.15 and is All-In, Hero folds

Results: $24.05 Pot ($1.20 Rake)
UTG+1 mucked and WON $22.85 (+$11 NET)

My note: I had two sets cracked, one very similar this way so either I learned my lesson or lost my nads. Did I make the right move here?
 
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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is that all the analysis you can offer?
 
Dwilius

Dwilius

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Villain has to have made flush here almost everytime for this to be statistically correct fold. You don't think this could be pair and flush draw?
 
Last edited:
jewboy07

jewboy07

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seriously i think you've lost your stones

unless you've got an amazing read that says your opponent will only do this with a flush and not an over pair or 2 pair

opponent could easily want to end the pot here and not let you draw to a flush

there are just so many things opponent could have and you'd still be in good shape

it would take a hell of a read for me to lay this down right here
 
SavagePenguin

SavagePenguin

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Villain: 15/10/1.4
Turn: ($12.05) 3
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero bets $6, UTG+1 raises to $19.15 and is All-In, Hero folds

Results: $24.05 Pot ($1.20 Rake)
UTG+1 mucked and WON $22.85 (+$11 NET)

So it was another $13.50 to win the $37.20 that's already in the pot? You're be getting 2.75-to-1 on your call.

I can't think of hand that you can beat that would check/call the flop, yet shove a raise on the turn. Or, at least not a hand that someone with those stats would have after raising in early position.

Well, I suppose Ac/Jh or something like that might do it with their top pair and flush draw. Not especially likely if raising in early position with A/Jo is outside of his range (and I think it falls just outside the bottom of his range).

You have to win about 36% of these to break even. I just don't think they're making this sort of move 1/3 of the time.

I think your fold was good.
 
WVHillbilly

WVHillbilly

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No way you should ever fold this. I jut ran this one through PokerStove and narrowed the villains range down to 33/99/JJ+/KQs+ (clubs only)/AJos+ (with one club only). I'd say that's way too tight a range really but even against that range were 72% to win this hand. Even if we give the villain the made flush here we're 25% to win on the river. Put your chips in the middle.
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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Villain: 15/10/1.4

Full Tilt Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP1: $25.40
MP2: $9.65
CO: $10.10
BTN: $26.30
SB: $33.60
BB: $5.35
Hero (UTG): $32
UTG+1: $25

Pre-Flop: 5
heartnormal.gif
5
diamondnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (UTG)
Hero calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $1.10, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.85

Flop: ($2.55) 9
spadenormal.gif
J
clubnormal.gif
5
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $1.75, Hero raises to $4.75, UTG+1 calls $3

Turn: ($12.05) 3
clubnormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero bets $6, UTG+1 raises to $19.15 and is All-In, Hero folds

Results: $24.05 Pot ($1.20 Rake)
UTG+1 mucked and WON $22.85 (+$11 NET)

My note: I had two sets cracked, one very similar this way so either I learned my lesson or lost my nads. Did I make the right move here?
You got villians stats over how many hands?
What are your stats?

If villian is new to the table(judging by the size of his stack) he may just be testing the waters, seeing if he can bluff you off the hand with the scare card on the river.
If he is relativly new to the table this was a bad fold
 
Last edited:
SavagePenguin

SavagePenguin

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No way you should ever fold this. I jut ran this one through PokerStove and narrowed the villains range down to 33/99/JJ+/KQs+ (clubs only)/AJos+ (with one club only). I'd say that's way too tight a range really but even against that range were 72% to win this hand. Even if we give the villain the made flush here we're 25% to win on the river. Put your chips in the middle.

I think raising with 3/3 in early position is questionable for his range but there's no way he's calling the bet on the flop with that hand.

9/9 is a possibility, in which case we're crushed.

J/J is a possibility, in which case we're crushed.

Kc/Qc, Ac/Kc, and Ac/Qc mean we're in really bad shape.

I guess Q/Q+ hands could have been trying to trap, and then panicked when they saw three-to-a-flush on the board.

What made me think folding was best was the check on the flop and the shove on the turn, with a 1.4 aggression factor. I think he has a flush about 2/3 of the time, and we don't beat a flush 1/3 of the time.

Shinetown.45 brings up an interesting question regarding the number of hands played with this person. I'd be a lot more likely to call with a small sample size.
However, if this person is someone who keeps rebuying every time they lose a blind (hence the $25 stack), coupled with those stats, they are more likely than not to be a good/observant player. Reloading after losing blinds is a move that observant/meticulous people make, which makes him more dangerous (less callable).
But if he lost the blinds, then $1, then $2, then the blinds again, then another $8, and *then* reloaded, he's less likely to be observant/careful and would be less dangerous (more callable).
 
Last edited:
icemonkey9

icemonkey9

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Thanks for the analysis guys ... been beating myself up over this hand.
 
Dwilius

Dwilius

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We need to win about 27% to call. Against made flush we're about 23%. Without considering 99 and JJ this only needs to be overpair and club 1/10 of the time, so if its flush 2/3 of the time, and occasionally bigger set its +EV to call.
 
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