$25NL 6-max: Two pair on drawy/scary board, turn decision OOP

c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
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Villain is a 19/14/42%(2.5) TAG over 70 hands or so.
Steal % = 18%

Not sure if that steal % is over a big enough sample but it sort of implies that his range is still the same 14% of hands.


MP: $32.82 (131.3 bb)

CO: $24.35 (97.4 bb)
BTN: $16.01 (64 bb)
Hero (SB): $29.31 (117.2 bb)
BB: $30.79 (123.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with A
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J
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MP raises to $0.85, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75, BB folds

Flop: ($1.95) A
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8
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K
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(2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($3.95) J
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(2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3, Hero?????


1) I hate playing AJ in 3-bet pots. But I also hate playing AJ without initiative out of position. Any advice on how to play AJo from the small blind? Folding seems too nitty, 3-betting seems like I'm turning AJ into a bluff, and calling really isn't great either.

2) I'm not sure if I like flatting the turn on such a drawy board, and I expect someone with his aggression percentage to be barreling his draws. But my hand is a bit marginal to play for stacks, yes? Is donk-bet/fold a better line for the turn?
 
dsvw56

dsvw56

I'm a Taurus
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this spot is lame lol You pretty much have to flat PF, as both folding and 3-betting really suck. Flatting just doesn't suck as much.

Ummmm . . . I don't like donk/folding a board this drawy. He could easily ship it with like AQ/KQ especially if he has a FD as well, and that makes us sad. I don't hate getting it in on the turn here, but I'd rather not. He is agressive enough that I think you should probably just call, and check/call the river unless a Q or T comes up. He's probably gonna barrel all his busted draws, and I think that's the best way to get value here.
 
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