$25NL 6-max: Oh Em Gee, I can't fold AK!

[c9h13no3]

Stats on Villain over 710 hands:
15/12/26%Fold to C-bet = 69%
WTSD = 22%

Reads on Villain:
Villain thinks I'm a donk, notices my very laggy image. I've been 3-betting him a ton this session, and he has yet to call any of my 3-bets.


MP: $32.81 (131.2 bb)
Hero (CO): $31.40 (125.6 bb)
BTN: $5.19 (20.8 bb)
SB: $9.20 (36.8 bb)
BB: $29.10 (116.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with A

K

MP raises to $0.85, Hero raises to $3.35, 3 folds, MP calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.05) Q

T

8

(2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $4.95, MP raises to $29.46 and is all-in, Hero calls $23.10 and is all-in (getting 1.7:1)


Between my outs, and villain doing this with air, think I'm good enough to make the call? And obviously I should probably be checking behind here huh with the game-flow going the way that it is?

P.S. - He doesn't hesitate to shove AK preflop, so AK, QQ+ is probably out of his range.

 

[Stick66]

The C-bet was fine, imo. But he's a TAG who check-raised you, so believe him. AQ, KQ, TT, and 88 does this to you all day. Fold the flop and wait for a better spot when you hit the nuts and he thinks you're full of it.

 

[c9h13no3]

AQ, KQ, TT, and 88 does this to you all day.

His range is WWWAAAAAYYYY wider than that. When a fit or fold TAG starts just calling your 3-bets, he has popped.

 

[widowmaker89]

Well what makes you think that he thinks you are a donk? Has there been some chat or something? Does he think you are a donk and wont fold? That only makes this a fold more I would think unless you have been letting go on a lot of bluffs.

This has to be air a lot of the time IMO. You have 4 clean outs and 6 dirty ones if he isnt bluffing. I would say if this is a value shove you at most have 7 outs. If this is air what kind of air is it? that board hits his range pretty hard here. What could he really have thats not beating you? Even 97?if it is air he has pretty decent equity (probably about the same you have if it isnt). Without knowing more I think this is a fold as i dont think this is a bluff(ie has air in a board that air is tough)

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Umm, what do we think villain has here that we beat?

Maybe a few weaker Aces, maybe KJ, maybe, umm that's it. I really don't think he's raise-calling UTG and check-shoving the flop with 65s or something. If he's 'cracked' it's more likely to be manifesting itself as him shoving the flop with something marginal like KT or 99.

There are many times more hands in villain's range here that we're trailing than those we're beating. Playing for 125bb stacks here is absurd, imo.

 

[feitr]

c9 i think you need to be careful with "convincing yourself" that because he actually called a 3 bet and made a move postflop he is making a move on you. It is much more likely that he has chosen to play back at you because he actually picked up a hand.

Anyways, given your laggy history and the fact that some really nice turn cards can hit, i'd almost always check behind here.

 

[blankoblanco]

nah, don't like the call. i think you're out-thinking yourself here. he could have something like KJ and 79s in which case you're close to flipping... what else can he have that doesn't have you pretty well beat? if you have a donk-ish image, this would be a pretty bad flop for him to overbet check-shove total air

and also i check behind flop often

 

[c9h13no3]

and also i check behind flop often

Yeah, I think that's the key point in the hand. I shouldn't have been in this terrible spot in the first place since there's a lot of turn cards that can make me happy.

So you guys don't think I have that much equity? Stoving against a range of AT-AQ, KJ+, 77-JJ I have 43% equity... I'm getting about the right price. If he does this with air once in a while, I think its marginally +EV.

 

[blankoblanco]

i'd take 77 out of his range since that basically equals air here and it just seems like it'd be insane. i forgot about AJ, but i'd sort of discount that in comparison to top pair hands, and i'd majorly discount 99 and JJ. yeah, he'd have a few more outs when called with those hands, but it still seems kind of extreme to me

 

[feitr]

i think villain's range is alot tighter than you are giving him credit for. 15/12 and folding to alot of your 3 bets...that is a tight range anyways and once he calls (especially when he has a high fold to 3b) the range is very reasonably aq+ tt+. Just because you've seen him shove ak, doesn't mean qq+ isn't in his range. Calling preflop with aa vs a laggy player who likes to hang himself (not saying that is you, but if he did have kk/aa you certainly did do so in this hand) is pretty standard. alot of players play ak quite differently than the qq+ hands, because it is harder to play ak in a 3 bet pot post flop (especially vs an aggressive player). But idk, maybe your read is accurate as i don't know the other factors at play. This is certainly a less spewy play if your a and k are live, but often in this situation i don't they that they are going to be. But again i don't know anything about the villain.

why do you think he is goign to have hands like jk/aj in his call 3 bet range, unless he has totally cracked because of you 3 betting him so much?

Maybe it is just me, but i simply cannot see wtf the villain is smoking if he calls 3 bets oop with the bottom half of his range, but always shoves the top half. That is just idiotic.

 

[c9h13no3]

why do you think he is goign to have hands like jk/aj in his call 3 bet range, unless he has totally cracked because of you 3 betting him so much?

Maybe it is just me, but i simply cannot see wtf the villain is smoking if he calls 3 bets oop with the bottom half of his range, but always shoves the top half. That is just idiotic.

People do idiotic things at these stakes. This happened to me last night:


Villain is a 19/11

Dealt to Hero [ Ac Kd ]
dscheulen folds
Titleist731 folds
30Jesse30 folds
bdraughon raises [$0.85 USD]
Hero raises [$2.95 USD]
Gab Man folds
bdraughon calls [$2.20 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, As, Qc ]
Hero checks
bdraughon checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4s ]
Hero bets [$5.35 USD]
bdraughon raises [$18.71 USD]
Hero calls [$13.36 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]
bdraughon shows [6s, Js ]
Hero doesn't show [Ac, Kd ]
bdraughon wins $42.03 USD from main pot

If you've been abusing people enough, they just pop. They're like, "screw this, I'm not folding this time." And they do goofy crap. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. But their thought process isn't "Oh, I'm at the bottom of my range, I should fold". Its not that complex. Its simple "He's 3-betting me a lot, I'm not folding!"

 

[feitr]

yea sometimes that is absolutely true. I remember one guy back when i was playing nl50 FR who actually called down a 3 barrell bet from me with T high. He had some sort of marginal draw on the flop/turn, but then couldn't even fold what was almost the nut low on the river because i had been "playing" alot of pots with him (and he left after that hand).

But i also don't automatically assume that because somebody in the big blind who is 16/13 with a 3b% of 4 decides to 3 bet my steal that he is suddenly getting pissed off with me raising his blind alot. Most players play pretty straight foward, especially the nitty players. Overthinking can get you into a world of trouble.

 

[Irexes]

Looks like a hero call to me, this is AQ a lot of the time and tough you'll win a % of them it a hero-call imo and not a place to be playing for stacks.

I like the bet on the flop, if he calls and you hit the turn you have a better chance of stacking him with a weaker hand than if you wake up with an obvious broadway straight or A or K. You asked the question, he's telling you that you're beat so fold. And if he's a nit then his range isn't that wide for the shove unless he's a very unusual one.