duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
well he doesn't always have AA, his range matters which i did above. calling is better if turn gets checked a lot and we get paid when we hit
well he doesn't always have AA, his range matters which i did above. calling is better if turn gets checked a lot and we get paid when we hit
Figaroo2
Legend
Bronze Level
Okay pro feed back was that the best line is to shove. If we can get the SB to fold we have the best chance of winning what is already a 100+BB pot. Calling might potentially win more but could also lose more.
In the hand we shoved SB calls with AA. turn and river are 4s 5d we brick. BB flips over Q9s hearts (oesd) and SB wins.
I just wanted to clarify in my mind that the shove was correct here and as we have seen against these cards this was best.
A regular might have folded AA to a 200 BB shove, but obviously not a fish. If AA folds even some of the time we then become a big favourite against Q9.
my record for winning with monster draws now moves to lost 11 won 1. I will persist it has to turn around eventually.
And yes I did tilt chase for a while and ended up wishing I'd just folded and got out of there -8 BB.
Clearly the mindset of folding is wrong but losing big pots to fish is one of my tilt triggers. It's odd because if they were regs it wouldn't bother me at all.
In the hand we shoved SB calls with AA. turn and river are 4s 5d we brick. BB flips over Q9s hearts (oesd) and SB wins.
I just wanted to clarify in my mind that the shove was correct here and as we have seen against these cards this was best.
A regular might have folded AA to a 200 BB shove, but obviously not a fish. If AA folds even some of the time we then become a big favourite against Q9.
my record for winning with monster draws now moves to lost 11 won 1. I will persist it has to turn around eventually.
And yes I did tilt chase for a while and ended up wishing I'd just folded and got out of there -8 BB.
Clearly the mindset of folding is wrong but losing big pots to fish is one of my tilt triggers. It's odd because if they were regs it wouldn't bother me at all.
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Aces2w1n
Legend
Silver Level
Just remember Figaroo2 as well, when fish win big pots they get a sudden false sense of security. It's like in football/Soccer after scoring a goal they are most vulnerable.
So strike back hard and don't take your eye off the ball because the next spot is there!
So strike back hard and don't take your eye off the ball because the next spot is there!
XXPXXP
Legend
Silver Level
I think it is a push
it is huge +EV
case 1 if you push BB folds u heads up SB
think you only need 40% winning chance because BB put 8 dollars dead money here.
but here you just invest 35% of the pot, it is obv +EV if BB folds.
Case 2 if BB calls
the tricky think is there is a big side pot
in this case
the main pot net win is you invest 21.2 to win 42.4
the side pot is you invest 37.89 to win 37.89
the total outs here is Ac, 9c| other 7c, 3 of 9s, and As
but consider there range is about 88+, AJ+ there are 56 combo of A in 80 combos
the 70% of A is in there hands, therefore the reasonable A is 1 outs
BB's hand strength is weak than SB , I think
therefore the chance you win side pot is by analysis above 44.96%,
the chance you win both side pot and main pot is about 27.2%
put the maths
44.96%*37.89+27.2%*(42.4+37.89)+(1-44.96%)*-59.19=6 USD appox 24BB
think pushing is correct play here.
it is huge +EV
case 1 if you push BB folds u heads up SB
think you only need 40% winning chance because BB put 8 dollars dead money here.
but here you just invest 35% of the pot, it is obv +EV if BB folds.
Case 2 if BB calls
the tricky think is there is a big side pot
in this case
the main pot net win is you invest 21.2 to win 42.4
the side pot is you invest 37.89 to win 37.89
the total outs here is Ac, 9c| other 7c, 3 of 9s, and As
but consider there range is about 88+, AJ+ there are 56 combo of A in 80 combos
the 70% of A is in there hands, therefore the reasonable A is 1 outs
BB's hand strength is weak than SB , I think
therefore the chance you win side pot is by analysis above 44.96%,
the chance you win both side pot and main pot is about 27.2%
put the maths
44.96%*37.89+27.2%*(42.4+37.89)+(1-44.96%)*-59.19=6 USD appox 24BB
think pushing is correct play here.
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XXPXXP
Legend
Silver Level
note: I know it is huge variance if you push here
putting 200BB to win 24BB is huge variance.
but it is poker.
it general I test this kind of variance in PC and playmoney table, it may cost you like lost 13-15 pot in a row at most.
BTW: preflop I did not think your KQs is a profitable call VS 3bet esp a middle stack is in the put with SB 3bet. what do you think your hand preflop?
what is the profitable of KQs call 3bet ip here?
putting 200BB to win 24BB is huge variance.
but it is poker.
it general I test this kind of variance in PC and playmoney table, it may cost you like lost 13-15 pot in a row at most.
BTW: preflop I did not think your KQs is a profitable call VS 3bet esp a middle stack is in the put with SB 3bet. what do you think your hand preflop?
what is the profitable of KQs call 3bet ip here?
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Figaroo2
Legend
Bronze Level
the SB is a maniac raising a ton, very wide range....read the whole thread.