$25 NLHE Full Ring: AK suited in early position

[TheBigFinn]

Hero $42.80 UTG +1
Villain $24.53 CO Just lost half her stack getting AI with AKs and losing to an OOP A8o
SB $27.51
UTG folds, Hero opens for $0.85. 3 folds to Villain in CO who calls. Button folds, SB calls, BB folds. $2.66 in the pot.
Flop comes Hero has a nut flush draw, a one outer to a royal and 3 outs to a straight. SB checks and Hero C-bet bluffs for $1.40, thinking two callers may fold here Villain calls and SB folds. $5,82 in pot. I have seen Villain call with low pairs in position, but raise with bigger pairs and I'm thinking she may have a medium pair.
Turn is a giving Hero TPTK and he bets $4.20. Villain thinks for a bit and shoves for $23.13 I have seen her turn her hand into a bluff before. Does she have a set of 3s or maybe 10s. Would she have just called the flop with such a wet board? Does she have a flush draw? A king. Why the over shove? It looks like she is trying to end it here.

Hero has to call ~$19 to win $32.65 If she has a set, Hero has 9 nut flush outs and 3 straight outs, and 2 king outs.with one to come. Call it 28% Hero may be good Villain has JJ or 99. I make the crying call.
River comes
Villain shows

Spoiler

and wins $49.27 bringing me back down to $18.27 and I rebuy $6.73.

Thoughts?

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Very large raise size for a 25NL cash game. Do you also go this big with the bottom of your range? If not you are turning your range face up.

Flop
Totally on board with C-betting.

Turn
While you improved to TPTK, thats actually not a particularly good hand on this board, because a lot of your opponents range now has either a straight or two pair. So I would check here for pot control. Instead you go for a very large bet, and I think, that is overplaying your hand. She jam it in your face, and this frankly suck, but I do tend to agree, that you have painted yourself into a corner and need to pay her off.

Results
So she turned the nut straight with AJ, and I am not surpriced about that at all. That hand is definitely in her range, and thats why, I want to check the turn for pot control.

 

[Vallet]

The pot becomes very high on the turn. The villain is afraid of the river and this is obvious. If you make big bets on all the streets, it is possible that you will do it again. Now it becomes too expensive to view the last card. It can be dangerous for the opponent and give a flush or a full house. Therefore, the villain's decision looks right. I usually just give up in these situations. Because the villain lets us know that we are behind.

 

[Hermus]

Take the line from fundiver. I just wanted to add some small things specific to hand analysis.

Hero has 9 nut flush outs and 3 straight outs, and 2 king outs.with one to come

If the turn raise is a raise for value you'll have to discount some of your outs. Some of your flush outs will upgrade villain's two pair and sets combo's to a full house. In fact, all her sets will upgrade to a full house if another king pairs the board.

It's a good heuristic to think in terms of outs at the table. If you're analysing a hand though the easiest way to see if you're hand is a call versus her value range is to use an equity calculator.

Hero may be good Villain has JJ or 99.

Against someone playing a somewhat balanced strategy I find it very unlikely that they raise the turn with one of these holdings. They're probably supposed to check/call or check/fold on this texture. Considering you have a read in this player and these pairs show up in her cold calling range she might turn them into bluffs. Still, given the action I think it's more likely that you're up against a polarised range with value combo's starting from two-pair + so you'll essentially have a bluff catcher with some outs.

 

[fundiver199]

I usually just give up in these situations. Because the villain lets us know that we are behind.

Looking at it again I tend to agree. It sucks to fold, when he have both a made hand and a strong draw. But we are facing an overbet and need 36,4% equity to break even on a call. If they are jamming AJ, KQ, J9s, TT and 33 for value, we only have 25,7% against that part of their range. So unless they have bluffs in their range, this is a losing call. And what are they ever bluffing with here? The most obvious bluff is the nut flushdraw, but they cant have that, because we have it. So if we are going to make a hero call here, it would be substantially better to have KJ of hearts rather than AK of hearts.