$25 NLHE 6-max: Rivered Nut flush on paired board facing huge raise from reg

[weldphaser]

44 99 and TT are 100% in his range.

People say it's a call because of worse flushes?

Q high and J high probably do raise, a J high flush means he called pre with like J rag, so that eliminates J high flush. 8 high or lower never raises here.

Literally only hand we beat is QJ clubs.

yeah your right right, i didnt the one part of that post, of course i figured those boats were in there

 

[John A]

Solid points John.

The problem I have with this particular hand is that he's tight. He's multitabling and we can be confident he'll be playing nearish ABC, therefore a goofy bluff is less likely. Is a $12.15 raise into $7.60 not big? After I just clearly valuebet/valuebet bluff $2.99 on the river? 99 makes so much sense here.

Overpairs are cancelled out as he's 3betting JJ-AA. I'm not sure 200 hands is going to give him that much of a read on me that he thinks a goofy bluff can push me off a flush, I wasn't playing that tight or weak.

Wtf is he trying to get calls from by raising that with a Q high or worse flush after I've bet the river?

I think it's more likely that he has 33/44 or TT than 99. If you want to play Nostradamus, it's your game, but I wouldn't advise it.

Again, because he's tight I think it's closer than it would be with some opponents, but it's still a call. He could be raising lots of worse flushes, and believe it or not... gulp... worse than Q high ones. Ya, people do that. And lets consider your question, although I'm not sure he's thinking this much... but it's a valid question. Wtf does he think you're calling with based on how it was played? So even tighter opponents bluff sometimes.

 

[DunningKruger]

Since tight multi tabling 25NL regs will practically never bluff in this manner at all (letting the turn check through here and then the pot sized raise vs your river lead) and he obviously doesn't hold blockers to any big flushes as you have both the A and K, the main thing to consider is simply how often he's going to value raise a hand you can beat. Giving him all pocket pair hands that are now boats or higher, he'll need at least 5 hands doing this that you win against (be it worse flushes, bluffs, or w/e). QJ♣ might do it. J8♣? The possibilities are rather thin among what a 17/15 will typically call with CO vs MP. On the flip side you can maybe discount TT a little bit as he might opt to 3ball you pre flop with that hand. Still, I'm fine with the fold. At worst it's a tight decision - and clearly villain should be raising more often in this spot if you're going to fold to like 7-10 combos with the nut flush no less - but it's certainly not a grave mistake or anything without further info/reads.

 

[DunningKruger]

I usually would here. But at the time I do remember villain had started to 3bet me and raise me quite a bit, I just didn't want to get raised and play a big pot OOP.

With that hand on that flop you'd would love to get raised there. if he's 2betting you on a lot of flops then you pray he keeps it up when you've got this much equity against his continuing range. Besides, being out of position isn't going to matter much anymore if the stacks go in. Passive play oop is quite difficult and so it's more of a reason to buffet the flop at 100 blinds, not less.

This is not something I read when I made my original response, and does change things a bit as it establishes history. He does not need to bluff very often at all on the river to justify looking him up. Getting cute on the flop sometimes doesn't necessarily mean you're going to see big river bluffs of course.

As an aside, I've been seeing one of the big CC-isms in some of your posts lately so I just want to mention that a post flop raise in the face of a bet is not a 3bet. If that raise then gets reraised it's a 3bet, not a 4bet. A minor detail but worth bringing up. (Other big CC-isms around here include not understanding ratios despite making use of them and ofc gross overuse of the word "flatted", but w/e.)

 

[Figaroo2]

Terrific thread thoroughly enjoyed reading every entry.
I would only add that I would be considering both his and your own specific river aggression stats here and also what you are showing him to the in turn of wtsd to help guide me to call/fold decision.
John is right (I`m playing 25nl) that we are seeing players with these stats showing up regularly here with small suited connectors in this spot. This means you have to widen their range a bit. What I like less is that this is from the CO and not the btn. This leans me more towards small pairs in this spot
I have been on the receiving end of several hands like this and have usually folded however it leaves a bitter taste when that same reg overbets you again and you're still unsure what he is capable of.
Personally if he is fairly agg on the river I Call here not just because its close but because he is a reg im likely to be seeing alot and I want the information. I don't think it does you any harm to appear a bit sticky as he won't bluff you as much in future. If I was the villain here and had 99 I would be betting the turn to protect against a high card falling on the river.
Honestly though it looks like pure value here and Id play 444 exactly this way especially on the turn and in terms of river sizing for value. if he has a boat or quad 3 as has been pointed out you need to be given a chance to hit or even rep something here.

 

[Figaroo2]

10 9 for two pair is another hand that can show up here and be played this way is it not.
Also I would be cbetting this flop 100% in order to start building a big pot for the times you hit the nut flush as it makes it much easier to get stacks in

 

[John A]

There's a few too many never and always in this thread. I'd beware of those imho.

 

[JCgrind]

lol. you folded the best hand, he made a worse flush.

no 25nl reg is checking back a boat OTT. and i hate reading shit about 'yeah, ofc he checks back a boat, cos he knows youre on a draw and he wants you to catch up'. stfu, that is stupid. if he knows youre on a draw, then he should be making a small bet OTT, around or slightly under half pot, so that he induces calls from draws and continues to build a bigger pot with his nut hand. anyone who checks back a boat on this turn is an idiot, and might i add that multitabling regs are much more likely to fastplay, because a) you get more value, and b) you dont have the capacity to play non ABC while playing a ton of tables.

bet/call or bet/raise flop, bet/fold turn unimproved. and yeah as played, you have to call off river.

i also think that if you check the flop, you should be doing it with the intention to c/r, ainec

 

[youregoodmate]

Bet flop, bet turn, as played call the river.

 

[akaRobbo]

lol. you folded the best hand, he made a worse flush.

no 25nl reg is checking back a boat OTT. and i hate reading shit about 'yeah, ofc he checks back a boat, cos he knows youre on a draw and he wants you to catch up'. stfu, that is stupid. if he knows youre on a draw, then he should be making a small bet OTT, around or slightly under half pot, so that he induces calls from draws and continues to build a bigger pot with his nut hand. anyone who checks back a boat on this turn is an idiot, and might i add that multitabling regs are much more likely to fastplay, because a) you get more value, and b) you dont have the capacity to play non ABC while playing a ton of tables.

bet/call or bet/raise flop, bet/fold turn unimproved. and yeah as played, you have to call off river.

i also think that if you check the flop, you should be doing it with the intention to c/r, ainec

99 though

 

[JCgrind]

99 though

again, the problem is that flop and turn werent barreled, because we cant narrow down villains range.

you want to fold because you think you can call villains exact 2 holecards?
the fact of the matter is that many worse flushes will play this way since they appear to be good. and there are way more combos of worse flushes then there are of 99

fwiw, if 99 is barrelling flop, it should be barrelling turn too since the board hasnt changed and heroes checking.

 

[akaRobbo]

fwiw, if 99 is barrelling flop, it should be barrelling turn too since the board hasnt changed and heroes checking.

Nah 99 doesn't often barrel turn.

 

[tomnovember]

Nah 99 doesn't often barrel turn.

Agree, seems not to be 99