$25 NLHE 6-max: QQ UTG+1 vs. Nitty UTG

[madtom1337]

$25 NL HE 6-max: QQ UTG+1 vs. Nitty UTG

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 18/9/3

full tilt poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 763816
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: $49.31
UTG: $25.65
Hero (MP): $25.32
CO: $28.91
BTN: $25.00
SB: $31.64

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with Q

Q

UTG raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, 4 folds

Flop: ($2.05) J

9

5

(2 players)
UTG bets $1.75, Hero calls $1.75

Turn: ($5.55) 5

(2 players)
UTG bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

River: ($14.55) 7

(2 players)
UTG bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

Did I play this right? Villain 18/9/3

Turns out he had AA and wins...

3-bet and fold PF? Raise all-in on river? Helpppp!

 

[thepokerkid123]

Pre-flop: Call. 3bet-fold turns QQ into a bluff and it would waste value, but I agree with the idea that stacking QQ vs any reasonable range we could give this guy would be bad. We're still way ahead of any open raising range we can give him though.
Our call will likely invite action from players behind us, a squeeze attempt if we're lucky but if not then just an over call would be nice and add more equity (since we have the exact top of our range after calling).

Flop: It's drawy and basically always going get more drawy but it's really very safe for us. He has maybe one combination with a draw (AdKd) and out of made hands 99/JJ is a tiny part of his range (and after card removal almost never shows up). We're basically behind AA/KK and that's it and his range is never getting narrow enough that we can fold to it.
With that being said, the only downside of the board getting scarier is that it might kill our action, call.

Turn: Calling is fine because your equity is obviously better in smaller pots, but since a raise here represents a draw or a draw, I prefer a raise.

River: No option but to call. 4:1 on your money with an overpair. Can't see any benefits of raising.

 

[c9h13no3]

You have a fold to 3-bet stat? I really like 3-betting, especially against guys who have wide VPIP/PFR splits (because they call too much preflop, and we want them to make this mistake when we hold qwainz). But if he's folding to 3-bets well, calling pre is then by far the preferable line.

I'd probably just go ahead and raise the flop. Raising the turn or river is also an option (especially given his river bet size). But I think given the number of icky turn cards that can pop up (we don't want to see A's, K's, J's or T's.) I'd probably just lean towards pumping the flop up.

If I get to the river with the over two pairs, and I see that dinky bet, I'm definitely getting the money in.