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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
SB ($25.05) [VPIP: 17.6% | PFR: 13.6% | AGG: 26.5% | Hands: 383]
BB ($19.46) [VPIP: 52.6% | PFR: 28.2% | AGG: 36.9% | Flop Agg: 29% | Turn Agg: 30% | River Agg: 64.3% | 3-Bet: 23.1% | 4-Bet: 100% | Cold Call: 35.6% | Hands: 80]
UTG ($23.69) [VPIP: 30.2% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 28.9% | Hands: 389]
HERO ($42.99) [VPIP: 25.8% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 33.7% | Flop Agg: 43.2% | Turn Agg: 28.2% | River Agg: 19.1% | 3-Bet: 5.6% | 4-Bet: 9.2% | Hands: 39127]
CO ($25) [VPIP: 17.9% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 37.9% | Flop Agg: 38.9% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 30% | 3-Bet: 3.5% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 5.3% | Hands: 238]
BTN ($36.85) [VPIP: 41% | PFR: 26.5% | AGG: 41.8% | Hands: 85]

Dealt to Hero: Q♦ Q♥

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $0.65, CO Calls $0.65, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.40

Hero SPR on Flop: [9.18 effective]
Flop ($2.05): 4♣ 5♦ A♣
BB Checks, HERO Checks, CO Bets $0.97 (Rem. Stack: $23.38), BB Folds, HERO Calls $0.97 (Rem. Stack: $41.37)

Turn ($3.99): 4♣ 5♦ A♣ 8♠
HERO Checks, CO Bets $1.88 (Rem. Stack: $21.50), HERO Calls $1.88 (Rem. Stack: $39.49)

River ($7.75): 4♣ 5♦ A♣ 8♠ Q♣
HERO Checks, CO Bets $5.49 (Rem. Stack: $16.01), HERO ???
[/SPOILER]

Villain in CO seems pretty nitty for 6max over 230 hands while the BB has been spewing for a while but no other real good reads stat-wise on him.

Preflop
I'm thinking the ranges are as follows:
CO - [TT-22,AQs-AJs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,AQo-AJo]
BB - (really just a guess here) TT-22,AJs-[A2s,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T7s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,65s,AJo-A2o,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o]

Flop
Based on villains AF, he's fairly aggressive so maybe his betting range his [TT-44,AQs-AJs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-AJo]. I feel like he could be betting the QJ/KJ+/T9 type of hands as part of his bluff range along with the clubs/straight draws...idk maybe that's wrong. I'm getting 3 to 1 though and BB folded, so I called.

Turn
I almost feel like he bets the entire range I gave on the turn except for maybe the middle pairs (obviously he bets 88/55/44)? Given the weakness I've showed, his bluffs might be able to get my weak aces, mid pairs, and better draws to fold. With his value range, he gets paid off when I can't fold a weaker ace/mid pairs/draws.

River
Not sure what to do here at all since, to me, his range is really polarized. I want to say it's something like [88,55-44,KJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,54s] and yet I feel like he has a ton of clubs so maybe my turn range is completely off. Thoughts on the range construction and what my action is here is appreciated.

The key thing to note here is, that CO has a very small gap between VPIP and PFR, which means, he is doing very little cold calling. That means, that when he does occationally cold call, its is typically going to be very weighted towards setmines. This is essentially, what these tight regulars do. They sit all day and wait for AA, KK or a set, so they can stack someone, who cant fold top pair or an overpair.

Against this kind of player I am not paying two bets with QQ on this board. But if I got to the river and hit gin, I would be tempted to raise and hope, he has that worse set. I would probably end up just calling for two reasons though. First information is never perpect, so maybe he did in fact get frisky with a suited connector type hand, and now he has a straight or flush. And second a nitty player might actually get away from a small set, because he think, you have a straight or flush, when you check-jam the river.

Your opponent is on the NIT side and it is less likely he bets with flush draw on flop against two opponents. His range on flop is most likely sets and Ax. Folding on flop and/or turn might be a better play against this opponent. As played, I am never folding on the river. It is either call or raise. Just calling might have more merits than betting because it is hard to get value from NITs from his worse hands.

Originally Posted by fundiver199

The key thing to note here is, that CO has a very small gap between VPIP and PFR, which means, he is doing very little cold calling. That means, that when he does occationally cold call, its is typically going to be very weighted towards setmines. This is essentially, what these tight regulars do. They sit all day and wait for AA, KK or a set, so they can stack someone, who cant fold top pair or an overpair.

Against this kind of player I am not paying two bets with QQ on this board. But if I got to the river and hit gin, I would be tempted to raise and hope, he has that worse set. I would probably end up just calling for two reasons though. First information is never perpect, so maybe he did in fact get frisky with a suited connector type hand, and now he has a straight or flush. And second a nitty player might actually get away from a small set, because he think, you have a straight or flush, when you check-jam the river.

The stats don't show but according to my db, villain has an AF of 3.6. wouldn't that mean he's likely to keep betting 44-TT on the turn if you're saying he has mostly pairs?

Call only has to be good 29% of the time. He can have only a handful of flushes/straights, by your own recognition.

I agree with fundiver that you should have let this go earlier, but on the river I think you have to call. 3 combos of AQ, 3 of AJs, and if he can have any other set then that's enough to call vs his 6-8 combos of flushes/straights.

Paying off both flop and turn with your QQ when there is an ace on the board, and many other low sets seems optimistic at best, and bad at worst.

Originally Posted by Sidetracked

Paying off both flop and turn with your QQ when there is an ace on the board, and many other low sets seems optimistic at best, and bad at worst.

are you saying to fold flop?

I think OTF I will just fold vs this stupid nit. As played, OTT as well. OTR snap call...

Flop is close, but probably a fold because he's betting MW and he looks nitty. Turn is a def fold though. I guess you had your crystal ball and knew you'd hit that set on the river... nice!

Once you do, CRAI on the river. Ez game.

I think I fold turn here as well. As played I'm probably raising river, we realistically only had one out that was still dead to the straight which we don't think V has much of. If we are floating turn here I'm compounding the issue by raising river. It's thin value and we get owned by KJcc, 67cc, and slow played AA but there shouldn't be too many combos that can triple barrel here that we loose to after we hit the river.

Originally Posted by John A

Flop is close, but probably a fold because he's betting MW and he looks nitty. Turn is a def fold though. I guess you had your crystal ball and knew you'd hit that set on the river... nice!

Once you do, CRAI on the river. Ez game.

damn you guys are way more disciplined than I am because folding flop never crossed my mind here.

Originally Posted by bgomez89

The stats don't show but according to my db, villain has an AF of 3.6. wouldn't that mean he's likely to keep betting 44-TT on the turn if you're saying he has mostly pairs?

AF measure the number of bets and raises devided by the number of calls. Nits essentially never call, unless they have the nuts, so a high AF does not mean, they are doing a lot of light betting. It just mean, they rarely call. A small VPIP/PFR gap also tend to drive up AF, because preflop initiative carry over to postflop. Preflop raiser C-bets, which drives up his AF, while preflop defended often calls the C-bet, which drives his AF down.

Originally Posted by bgomez89

damn you guys are way more disciplined than I am because folding flop never crossed my mind here.

It's because of your opponent, the fact you're MW, and your ability to improve when behind is small. Looks like Fundiver explained the stats well so hopefully that helped in future scenarios. AF w/ nits is misleading compared to regs.