$25 NLHE 6-max: caught 4b bluffing w/ 8 high. pot committed?

[JCgrind]

This. Pretty much hate cold 4betting here.

For any reasons other than those already mentioned or? Just trying to get the broadest collection of opinions I can

 

[WVHillbilly]

I think all the reasons have been mentioned but basically because we have no blockers to his 5bet range and the original EP opener, although likely to fold, adds another hand we have to make fold.

 

[Deco]

I really don't think 200 hands+ is a small/dodgy sample.

It is when it comes to positional 3bets. You still haven't mentioned the sample your button 3bet% has. Is it 2/6, or 10/30? You can't just look at the number of total hands and say something is converged.
I've opened my database and found the first player I could find with ~200 hands. he has a btn 3bet% of 6% over 17 hands. 1/17! This stat means nothing. Even if it was 6/18 it still wouldn't be a good enough sample to tell me that not only is this guy restealing light but also 3betting vs HJ opens.

I don't cold 4bet non resteals often but when I do I want a good sample telling me he 3bet non-steals wide (I find this by comparing a converged btn 3bet% with his 3bet vs steal from button% and also seeing how high his CO and HJ 3bet%s are). I'd also need to know that the opener is a prime target for light 3bets (High F3B, not nitty). Lastly after deciding all this I'd wait for an Ax or Kx hands before cold 4betting. I'd also find villains huge 3bet size offputting towards this.

 

[JCgrind]

I think all the reasons have been mentioned but basically because we have no blockers to his 5bet range and the original EP opener, although likely to fold, adds another hand we have to make fold.

okay fair enough. but so with Ax/Kx are you okay with 4b/fold? (obv not calling a 5b shove with Ax/Kx cos my equity is even worse)

It is when it comes to positional 3bets. You still haven't mentioned the sample your button 3bet% has. Is it 2/6, or 10/30? You can't just look at the number of total hands and say something is converged.
I've opened my database and found the first player I could find with ~200 hands. he has a btn 3bet% of 6% over 17 hands. 1/17! This stat means nothing. Even if it was 6/18 it still wouldn't be a good enough sample to tell me that not only is this guy restealing light but also 3betting vs HJ opens.

I don't cold 4bet non resteals often but when I do I want a good sample telling me he 3bet non-steals wide (I find this by comparing a converged btn 3bet% with his 3bet vs steal from button% and also seeing how high his CO and HJ 3bet%s are). I'd also need to know that the opener is a prime target for light 3bets (High F3B, not nitty). Lastly after deciding all this I'd wait for an Ax or Kx hands before cold 4betting. I'd also find villains huge 3bet size offputting towards this.

good info, thanks for the tip. ye i think i mentioned already that original opener was high f3b. as for the sizing, while i would also usually agree that this was offputting it was his sizing every time

 

[WVHillbilly]

okay fair enough. but so with Ax/Kx are you okay with 4b/fold? (obv not calling a 5b shove with Ax/Kx cos my equity is even worse)

Still not a huge fan with Ax/Kx because I just don't think you really ever need to cold 4bet as a bluff at these stakes but I'd like it a bit better. And yeah def. 4bet/f if you must cold 4bet as a bluff.

 

[JCgrind]

Still not a huge fan with Ax/Kx because I just don't think you really ever need to cold 4bet as a bluff at these stakes but I'd like it a bit better. And yeah def. 4bet/f if you must cold 4bet as a bluff.

But it's SUCH an ez ~13BB! Lol. However I think this level is optimal for bluff 4bing, as it's only the mid-high micros that everyone auto puts 4ber on QQ+AK always

Thanks for contributing

 

[JCgrind]

So I'm still confused about this.... If I'm a 30% or greater chance to win the hand, according to morracy, this is statistically a call (after I 4b and get shoved on), which is also my opinion.
If anyone has some tasty math to prove otherwise, speak now or forever hold your peace....

 

[Deco]

My stoving earliar was whilst I was unaware this was a HJ vs Btn Cold 4bet.
Knowing this I'd say villain range is going to lie somewhere between {AK ,QQ+} and {KK+} (AK/QQ may flat or fold to the 4bet and may even flat to the open).

Your equity lies between 22-33%. You need 36%. Calling here is horrible.

 

[Deco]

My stoving earliar was whilst I was unaware this was a HJ vs Btn Cold 4bet.
Knowing this I'd say villain range is going to lie somewhere between {AK ,QQ+} and {KK+} (AK/QQ may flat or fold to the 4bet and may even flat to the open).

Your equity lies between 22-33%. You need 34.5%. Calling here is bad Btn vs BB as my previous post states it is horrible HJ vs BTn vs BB.

So I'm still confused about this.... If I'm a 30% or greater chance to win the hand, according to morracy, this is statistically a call (after I 4b and get shoved on), which is also my opinion.

18.91 / 25.91 + 7 + 3 + 18.91 = 18.91/54.82 = 34.5%
Our previous calculations getting 36% didn't include the $3 raise, please convert your hand next time if you want accurate responses first time.

 

[A2345Razz]

I dont mind 4B/Folding here tbh if gameflopw/stats are really screaming for a bluff contextually.

I think it's a fold as you cant really stove a range where you have the ~35% or whatever to ship ship with enough equity.

 

[JCgrind]

I dont mind 4B/Folding here tbh if gameflopw/stats are really screaming for a bluff contextually.

I think it's a fold as you cant really stove a range where you have the ~35% or whatever to ship ship with enough equity.

Yeah I can? 6d7d is ~33% vs QQ+, AKo, AKs?

 

[CaptainKout]

If you're committed when he 5bet shoves, why not put it all in yourself to maximize fold equity?

 

[WVHillbilly]

Yeah I can? 6d7d is ~33% vs QQ+, AKo, AKs?

33% < 35% in case you didn't know.

 

[JCgrind]

If you're committed when he 5bet shoves, why not put it all in yourself to maximize fold equity?

wtf of course. im such a noob how did i not even think of that lmao

EDIT: oh wait, its incase on the off chance original raiser shoves

33% < 35% in case you didn't know.

lol oh yeah forgot how to count.

 

[Deco]

lol oh yeah forgot how to count. based on the maths though still beats folding (assuming its correct)

No it doesn't! If you don't have the equity to call an all in you fold! Also an {AK, QQ+} range is very optimistic as explained in my previous posts. Going round in circles here with you changing how much equity we need based on someones estimation then deciding equity isn't important anymore when you get the real figure. Stop looking for ways to make your call good, it isnt!

Your equity will likely be far less than 33%.
Many a villain will flat AK/QQ to a HJ raise.
Many a villain will fold or flat AK/QQ to the 4bet (myself included).

I expect the latter point to be quoted as an argument for a cold 4bet but the former point cancels it out.

 

[JCgrind]

No it doesn't! If you don't have the equity to call an all in you fold! Also an {AK, QQ+} range is very optimistic as explained in my previous posts. Going round in circles here with you changing how much equity we need based on someones estimation then deciding equity isn't important anymore when you get the real figure. Stop looking for ways to make your call good, it isnt!

Your equity will likely be far less than 33%.
Many a villain will flat AK/QQ to a HJ raise.
Many a villain will fold or flat AK/QQ to the 4bet (myself included).

I expect the latter point to be quoted as an argument for a cold 4bet but the former point cancels it out.

ye sorry, responded before i read your earlier post (had to go back a page so missed it originally, read it and insta fixed my post)

cheers for continually spending your time trying to get through to me, it finally worked