$25 NLHE 6-max: Bad turn bluff turns into a Value shove or Showdown on the river ?

[razzor94]

$25 NLHE 6-max: Bad turn bluff turns into a Value shove or Showdown on the river ?

PartyGaming - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Villain is a competent reg maybe on the nitty side.
This is usually the line I take on these small to midleish rainbow boards where I find people way overfolding the turn on certain cards so I am definitely overbluffing there. The 9 is not one of them I think and a lot of his floats are calling the turn now except AK.
River now brings Qc and it completes the flush but since I have the nut blocker I am not sure if I should shove or check.
Honestly i think if I check he will check back all his worse hands and bet the better ones as I see no bluffs here.

Do i still go and try to get value from KQ, QJ,88, 77 or do I x/fold ?
Also am I betting to thin meaning is my checking range to weak on turns if I bet this ?

BTN: $40.40 (161.6 bb)
Hero (SB): $26.69 (106.8 bb)
BB: $215.95 (863.8 bb)
UTG: $24.50 (98 bb)
CO: $29.56 (118.2 bb)

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has
2 folds, BTN raises to $0.62, Hero raises to $2.50, fold, BTN calls $1.88

Flop: ($5.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $1.64, BTN calls $1.64

Turn: ($8.53, 2 players)
Hero bets $6.30, BTN calls $6.30

River: ($21.13, 2 players)
Hero ?

 

[fundiver199]

I always a bit rough, when we 3-bet OOP, get action and miss the flop with a AK/AQ type hand. Given that your flop bet was so small, it did not change ranges much, and I dont mind betting the turn. It put underpairs in a pretty rough spot, and you are ahead of some draws, that might call. So its kind of a combo bet, that achieve a bit of both.

On the river I think, its to thin to bet for value. Maybe he still call with hands like QJs/ATs/KTs, but KQ was likely folded on the turn, and you are beat here some percentage of the time. KJs has a straight now, there are a few combos of possible flushes, and of couse some sets as well as two pair.

So check and make a decision, if he bets. OOP it can be tempting to just pile it in, because we dont want to fold, but we need to remember, that our opponent will not always bet, and we are totally fine, if this goes check-check. I dont think, I would always check-fold. I think, he can have at least some bluffs, or maybe he bet the same hand for value, so that you can call for a chopper.

 

[Alucard]

If you don't see any bluffs either we block fold or jam imo
not exactly sure tho

 

[owler]

well, I do not think there are many indicators that can tell us what exactly he has it depends on the player you are facing if he is a loose player I would wait for him to try and bluff.
On the other hand, if he is a conservative player his raise on the pre-flop could indicate that he has some sort of hand a pair that turned out to be a 3 of a kind, kJ that is now a straight, 10 9 suited is now two pairs, with Ace high even Ace king he is going to fold.
that can show us a bet for value on the river may not be to your favour

 

[razzor94]

On the river I think, its to thin to bet for value. Maybe he still call with hands like QJs/ATs/KTs, but KQ was likely folded on the turn, and you are beat here some percentage of the time. KJs has a straight now, there are a few combos of possible flushes, and of couse some sets as well as two pair.

I don't think he fold KQ on the turn but calls KJ. I think there are still both in his range when the turn is a 9.

 

[fundiver199]

I don't think he fold KQ on the turn but calls KJ. I think there are still both in his range when the turn is a 9.

You are right. I missed, that KQ also had a gutshot on the turn, so no reason to fold that hand but call KJ. That does give a little more merit to value betting, because its a pretty important hand, we could get called by. It also makes me less inclined to fold, since some players might bet KQ for value when checked to. Might be an overplay, but it happens, and I dont want to get accidentally value-bluffed out of a pot.

 

[razzor94]

I just put in the ranges into GTO+ and ran the sim. Solver bets only on the bigger side for 35% and x back 65%.
It makes sense i guess because at 1st glance the board isn't connected but the thing is almost every turn except a few gives villain some sort of improvement on his floats.
That said we should probaly try and get V to fold out his equity on the flop if we can.
Also I am pretty sure if we node lock villain's range to what we percieve it will be the solver will shift more towards a small bet size, just because villain calls too much on the flop and doesn't raise nearly enough as it should it leaves him open for exploitation on the turn when we bet in his wide range.
I have done a few sims already with this type of board texture with what I percieve my opponent will do and it is almost never a bad thing to go 1/3 pot in these spots, i just didn't see the solver going so polar between betting big and checking.
But to be fair we will be doing a lot more x OOP than IP.