$25 NLHE 6-max: AA sq. I'm guessing Ineeded to bet this flop...

[loafaBREAD]

Sizing pre?

V who called has a low fold to 3b, low f4b, high 3-bet...

He could have 99-QQ here, so I think a flop bet is fine. Rivers a check-fold, though?

Yatahay Network - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

UTG: 103.6 BB
CO: 338.72 BB
BTN: 114 BB
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100.72 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A:club: A:diamond:

UTG raises to 2.28 BB, CO raises to 8 BB, BTN calls 8 BB, Hero raises to 32 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 24 BB, fold

Flop: (75.28 BB, 2 players) K:club: 8:club: K:diamond:
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (75.28 BB, 2 players) J:heart:
Hero bets 18.8 BB, CO calls 18.8 BB

River: (112.88 BB, 2 players) 3:club:
Hero checks, CO bets 107.24 BB, fold

CO wins 107.24 BB

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Yea I don't mind pre sizing OOP against a guy who doesn't fold much with the top of our range. Flop isn't great but if he's overcalling he doesn't have as much Kx as most players do. I'm betting this flop for about 20-25 BB then evaluating, mostly jamming against a wide and sticky V. The J is not ideal but I'm probably ripping it anyways since we are still ahead of what has to be a lot of his range. He can't just always flat 3 and 4 bets and have trips plus. Sucks when he has Kx or JJ but it's a 4 bet pot so once we cbet, more than half our stack is in there. The flip side of sizing up the 4 bet is being committed by a 1/3 cbet. What's his AF and RAF? The only way to be able to flat wide ranges and win is to buy pots a good portion of the time when you miss and get paid on boards that you hit that look safe. After we x flop, I'd just try to x and try to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. The 1/4 pot on the turn then a X on the river makes our hand look really weak, like a scared QQ or a 4 bet bluff that's giving up. Bottom line is we just don't have this much maneuverability when the SPR is below 1. If we are betting it's to put stacks in play, other wise just try to get to showdown and maybe bluff catch. Don't think we have much room for in-between stuff.

All this is kind of winging it though. How many hands of a sample do we have? What's his 3 Bet? What's his fold to 3B and 4B? Just how low is low? If he has like 10% 3B and less than 60% fold to 4B I think we should be willing to stack off here a lot. It helps that the A and K of clubs are both blocked making combo draws less likely. It's likely a way ahead or way behind spot but played like this, and aggressive V can have it both ways. He wins when he's strong and he wins when he calls a 1/4 delayed cbet and gets a river check. We never play trips+ like this.

 

[loafaBREAD]

V: (729 hands) 26/20 AF: 2

F3b: 38, F4B: 25, 3B: 10

Don't have much 4bet + situations with V, but using his F3B we can infer he is calling wide IP.

Only 4c of AK left, 3 of JJ... if he calls with QQ we win often enough I suppose. A flop jam might get called wider, but this is such a bad spot for AA I'm not sure how to act here. Flop bet, then check it down? I'm not too sure on the Turn jam, but it's true, especially if we bet flop we are priced in to a lot of calls in a spot where V shouldn't be bluffing.

 

[c0rnBr34d]

If we just take generic ranges here and look at a top 10% range for his 3B he has 133 combos:
77+, ATo+, KJo+, QTs+, K9s+, A8s+

If we estimate he's folding the bottom 40% of those combos to a 4B then he has 80 combos left.:
88+, AJo+, QJs+,KTs+, ATs+

If we go with the even more sticky 25% 4B figure he has as many as 100 combos:
77+, QTs+, KTs+, A9s+, AJo+

The thing is, at what point can he really fold post flop? For a player that sticky, pretty much his whole range can call the 1/4 pot bet. He's sitting a larger stack too so may be in a more sticky, more bullying mood than standard. If he's only got 80 combos his value range is 88, JJ, KQs, AK (12 out of 80 combos). If he has 100 combos it's still probably only adding 4 more value combos of KJs and KTs so like 16 out of 100 combos beat us. I'm fine with going with it here when SPR is so low and we have showdown value. When SPR is this low we are usually just stacking off or folding and when we have this large of a range advantage I don't see how stacking off can be that bad.

In contrast, against a more nitty and probably more common range of QQ+, AK in a 4 bet pot we now only beat QQ and should be looking to get to showdown as cheaply as possible since we chop one combo of AA and win vs 6 combos of QQ while losing vs the 5 combos of AK, KK in this scenario (6 wins, 5 losses, and a chop combo wise).

 

[okeedokalee]

Can you make combo estimates during a hand or are there free charts available with common hand ranges and their combo values?

 

[c0rnBr34d]

Can you make combo estimates during a hand or are there free charts available with common hand ranges and their combo values?

I think players should have a good feel of what 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% look like, combo wise and counts. I don't think anyone has time live or online to punch these in and see ranges but having a baseline I think is helpful for estimation.

My ranges above in the previous post are off a bit since I had AA blocking a bunch of combos and then still grabbed the combo count instead of going with the original range and just letting AA block a huge chunk. That means the denominator is also off as we block a portion of the 133, 100, or 80 combos but I think the gist of the post still holds true for comparison. This is somewhat offset by some combos that would 5 bet shove at some frequency which may be the last combo of AA and KK, and some AK, maybe even some QQ for some players. But again, it's just an quick 5 minute estimate to get our head around the situation.

To answer your question directly though, yes. There are free online tools and phone Apps that display ranges as a percentage with combo counts. They are usually weighted by strength vs 3 players. Keep in mind these wont be exact depending on the player and the situation but they are good for a starting point.