$25 NLHE 6-max: 25nl - Capped range, river decison :s?

[Figaroo2]

I'm calling
Plugging 44 v an iso range of about 18-20% shows you as a 60-40ish favourite on the turn on that runout. If we call the turn I think we have to call the river as little changes equity wise when the T comes.
Also I read from his stats and his lowish 3bet stat that he is likely a multitabling tightish tag reg who's only 3betting linear in obvious spots. This sort of reg will clearly be isolating limps wide from the button it's too obvious a spot not to.
He's likely betting the flop with his full range and the sizing suggests to me a standard semi/bluff cbet, if he had a premium why not make it 2/3 or 3/4 for value and to make it easier to get stacks in later.
So when you call and he pots the turn I suspect he's trying to get a fold and comitting to 3 barrels, if he had a premium he likely doesn't go that large.
I mean its a terrible spot to bluff as who is folding 77-99 there, hands which are all in your range.
Yep deffo a call for me.

Also 3betting 44 here as advocated by Aces2 isn't that bad, especially if you have been playing tight. The button is clearly trying to iso the CO and can be really wide here. It's a move advocated by at least two cash games coaches I've used. As they would say it all depends what sort of image you are trying to cultivate. If you've been pushing the table around clearly a call is preferable preflop as they are going to play back a bit more.
If we set mine oop here we are obviously giving up on most high card flops so I think throwing in the odd 3bet with small pairs is perfectly acceptable against an relatively ABC likely multi-tabling reg like this who might not want the aggravation of playing his weaker range here and simply move on.

 

[IPlay]

Even though I mostly agree with your outcome Fig, I don't agree with how you got there. I think he is iso raising atleast 25%, probably 30%-35% on the BTN here. It also seems like you are making an assumption that villain is barreling off with his entire ISO range. Or I could be misreading, I'm not sure. I also wouldn't put that much weight into the sizing of his cbet. I'm sure he uses this sizing enough to where we can't say this sizing suggest a bluff. The turn and river is where we can start to pay attention to his polarizing sizes.

What range are you guys putting villain on when he gets to the river? His value range should be something like

JJ+, A5s, A5o, K5s, 65s, 54s,75s for 56 value combos

For his bluff range? Well this isn't really a hand we can plug many bluffs in that make sense besides overs. So what % can we put villain on a triple barrel with overs? IDK personally. What we do know is that we need to be good 33% of the time to call the river and to get that kind of equity villain needs to barrel at least 28 combos of overs which is easily accomplished.

28 combos looks like this AKo, AKs, AQo.

So yeah, probably a call but I think if we could look a little deeper into his stats/notes we could make a much more confident call or fold.

My best feedback for this hand, if you are going to adjust to calling 44 here, we need to adjust and call with premium pocket pairs to make these spots easier. Even against his value range 44 has ~ .5% equity while if we can show up with TT-QQ here we have ~27% against his value range and we can almost call without villain ever showing a bluff. Then we never have to think about calling with 44 and just snap call with our bigger pocket pairs.

I'll end this on a hypothetical, if we do adjust in this spot by calling with big pocket pairs pre, while still 3 betting some big pocket pairs what pairs are you flatting and what pairs are you 3 betting? Is it better to flat TT-QQ/3B KK+ or to flat KK+ and 3B TT-QQ? I think I prefer the latter because it will be easier to play post because of overs flopping BUT then we miss out on value pre by flatting?

 

[John A]

I'm going to advocate for a pre-flop 3-bet as well. We like the fish in there, but in order to get paid in a spot like this OOP vs 2 opponents, a lot of things need to go right. By 3-betting, we either pick the pot up pre (sucks not to get in here with the fish), or we get 1 or 2 calls and we can rep a wider range of hands. Instead of OP being in the spot where he's guessing how aggressive his opponent is with his betting range, OP can turn his hand into more bluffs.

I don't hate a call of course. If you're in the SB instead of the BB, I like a 3-bet much more. As played, you're in one of those classical polarized spots where your opponent is either bluffing or near the top of their range. TT+. Your opponent knows your hand, it's face up. So for me it always comes down to whatever aggression reads I have on my opponent. I think even the weakest regs at these stakes are going to understand this spot well, so you have to know how capable he is of 3 barrelling w/ air and how much he understands that you understand this spot as well. Because getting you to call w/ 33-77 when he has a value hand is going to depend on how much he thinks you can bluff call here. But the weakest of regs aren't going to 3-barrell here. There will be other stat indicators that show someone is capable of knowing how to push you off your range.

In a wind tunnel, I just try and extrapolate any aggression numbers I have (overall and by street), and make my best read from there. Other history will and can alter this.

 

[Figaroo2]

Even though I mostly agree with your outcome Fig, I don't agree with how you got there. I think he is iso raising atleast 25%, probably 30%-35% on the BTN here. It also seems like you are making an assumption that villain is barreling off with his entire ISO range. Or I could be misreading, I'm not sure. I also wouldn't put that much weight into the sizing of his cbet. I'm sure he uses this sizing enough to where we can't say this sizing suggest a bluff. The turn and river is where we can start to pay attention to his polarizing sizes.

I agree we shouldn't read much into his flop cbet the meaning isn't clear but it is primarily his turn bet sizing which indicates to me that he probably wants a fold. Once he bets that big on the turn then he isn't going to suddenly check and give up with the bluff. It makes much more mathematical sense and likely to be more EV to fire the 3rd barrel and hope for the fold.
I wouldn't expect him to fire that big on the turn without at least AK AQ though, so if a high card does come he likely has the bigger boat. It's pretty much still a semi bluff, I don't think he would bet that anywhere near that big on the turn with the weaker hands of his range. I'd expect him to be one and done with his weaker hands.
But anyway I'd expect to win this hand about 6 times in 10 with a call. Sometimes he's going to have better and have adjusted his sizing to look bluffy with a value hand.