$25 NL HE Full Ring: Facing the 2x donk shove on the river

[Station_Master]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.10/$.25

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

VP$IP

12

PFR

6

AF

2

Currency

$

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 12/6/2
pokerstars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG: $75.59 (302 bb)
UTG+1: $17.07 (68 bb)
MP (Hero): $29.02 (116 bb)
MP+1: $29.64 (119 bb)
CO: $15.49 (62 bb)
BU: $25.00 (100 bb)
SB: $20.37 (81 bb)
BB: $37.86 (151 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with T♦ T♥
UTG raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 3 players fold, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.25

3bet or call, I call this time

Flop: ($2) T♠ Q♠ 7♦ (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB folds, BB calls $0.70, UTG folds

Even though my hand is very strong and its coordinated I bet small given its multiway and allow draws to potentially check raise

Turn: ($3.40) 5♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.90, BB calls $3.90

Seems a standard spot to overbet

River: ($11.20) K♦ (2 players)
BB bets $32.76 (all-in), Hero ????

Do you call here against a nitty reg? I hadn't seen him make this type of donk shove before.

 

[puzzlefish]

I would be folding on the river. It's a dumb bet by BB and I repeatedly see this at various stakes when players hit their dream nut draw and just spew to trap and see if you'll "bluff catch" with whatever you have. I don't think a nitty reg would be doing this with anything less than QQ here and I can't see a player at 25NL doing this with two pairs or AK. AJ gets there and J9 gets there, which both make sense for this stupid play, which just screams AJ.

 

[puzzlefish]

Nobody else wants to give their opinion?

Here's the stupid play in action. Works surprisingly well when it does.

PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $1.23 (62 bb)
MP: $1.96 (98 bb)
CO: $2.31 (116 bb)
BU: $2.37 (119 bb)
SB: $2.00 (100 bb)
BB (Hero): $1.80 (90 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with 7♦ 6♣
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, 3 players fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.05) 6♥ 4♠ 4♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.03, MP calls $0.03

Turn: ($0.11) 3♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.02, Hero calls $0.02

River: ($0.15) 6♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $1.73 (all-in), MP calls $1.73

Total pot: $3.61 (Rake: $0.13)

Showdown:
BB (Hero) shows 7♦ 6♣ (a full house, Sixes full of Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 12%, Turn: 14%, River: 100%)

MP shows K♠ K♦ (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 88%, Turn: 86%, River: 0%)

BB (Hero) wins $3.48

 

[Station_Master]

Nobody else wants to give their opinion?

Here's the stupid play in action. Works surprisingly well when it does.

PokerStars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $1.23 (62 bb)
MP: $1.96 (98 bb)
CO: $2.31 (116 bb)
BU: $2.37 (119 bb)
SB: $2.00 (100 bb)
BB (Hero): $1.80 (90 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BB with 7♦ 6♣
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, 3 players fold, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.05) 6♥ 4♠ 4♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.03, MP calls $0.03

Turn: ($0.11) 3♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.02, Hero calls $0.02

River: ($0.15) 6♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $1.73 (all-in), MP calls $1.73

Total pot: $3.61 (Rake: $0.13)

Showdown:
BB (Hero) shows 7♦ 6♣ (a full house, Sixes full of Fours)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 19%, Flop: 12%, Turn: 14%, River: 100%)

MP shows K♠ K♦ (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 81%, Flop: 88%, Turn: 86%, River: 0%)

BB (Hero) wins $3.48

That hand is hilarious, what a fish villain was. For that sizing he should only really be calling 6x and better.

For my hand the question I was asking myself is does villain call the turn overbet with AJ or J9 unless of spades?

 

[puzzlefish]

That hand is hilarious, what a fish villain was. For that sizing he should only really be calling 6x and better.

For my hand the question I was asking myself is does villain call the turn overbet with AJ or J9 unless of spades?

I don't think he *should* call if off-suit. But it definitely makes a lot of sense to call if suited.

I would ask if a nitty reg would ever bluff like this.

 

[John A]

12/6/2 ?

Insta fold and not thinking much about it.

 

[pentazepam]

As others have pointed out: don't overthink pre-flop combinations if you have post-flop tendencies to go from.

Sometimes it doesn't matter if they only have ONE preflop combo. If they never (or very rarely) overbet the river as a bluff it is a clear fold.

Having said that: to call that big bet on the turn and the jam the river he probably has exactly AJ of spades. I don't think he overbets even J9 of spades on the river.

 

[Station_Master]

So I called... I just figured there was only 1 logical value combo and he could be overvaluing/bluffing sometimes even if nitty. I thought he could have QQ too but seemed an odd not to raise sooner. Also I was thinking I am top of range so cant really fold!

He had KQhh

Which I found strange as it seems to thin to value shove, but why turn it into a bluff. Even though I won the hand I still am not sure if it really is a good call or just being results orientated.

 

[Aballinamion]

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 12/6/2
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG: $75.59 (302 bb)
UTG+1: $17.07 (68 bb)
MP (Hero): $29.02 (116 bb)
MP+1: $29.64 (119 bb)
CO: $15.49 (62 bb)
BU: $25.00 (100 bb)
SB: $20.37 (81 bb)
BB: $37.86 (151 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with T♦ T♥
UTG raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 3 players fold, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.25

3bet or call, I call this time

Flop: ($2) T♠ Q♠ 7♦ (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB folds, BB calls $0.70, UTG folds

Even though my hand is very strong and its coordinated I bet small given its multiway and allow draws to potentially check raise

Turn: ($3.40) 5♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.90, BB calls $3.90

Seems a standard spot to overbet

River: ($11.20) K♦ (2 players)
BB bets $32.76 (all-in), Hero ????

Do you call here against a nitty reg? I hadn't seen him make this type of donk shove before.

I don't like this call preflop, unless we are quite sure that there are weak players on the blinds.
On the river we are calling given that is not common for the player in the blinds to be holding QQ or KK, but it might have lots of KQ, and some 55 and 77.
Preflop we are 3-bet fold most of times, having no information about the players in the blinds. Once we know that the player in the blinds tends to be over tight, we can do both, 3-bet or fold preflop.

 

[Aballinamion]

So I called... I just figured there was only 1 logical value combo and he could be overvaluing/bluffing sometimes even if nitty. I thought he could have QQ too but seemed an odd not to raise sooner. Also I was thinking I am top of range so cant really fold!

He had KQhh

Which I found strange as it seems to thin to value shove, but why turn it into a bluff. Even though I won the hand I still am not sure if it really is a good call or just being results orientated.

I just read this and yep, they tend to believe they have us, when they don't. Nice hand and good call.

 

[Aballinamion]

Villain Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 12/6/2
PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 8 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat

UTG: $75.59 (302 bb)
UTG+1: $17.07 (68 bb)
MP (Hero): $29.02 (116 bb)
MP+1: $29.64 (119 bb)
CO: $15.49 (62 bb)
BU: $25.00 (100 bb)
SB: $20.37 (81 bb)
BB: $37.86 (151 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP with T♦ T♥
UTG raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 3 players fold, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.25

3bet or call, I call this time

Flop: ($2) T♠ Q♠ 7♦ (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB folds, BB calls $0.70, UTG folds

Even though my hand is very strong and its coordinated I bet small given its multiway and allow draws to potentially check raise

Turn: ($3.40) 5♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.90, BB calls $3.90

Seems a standard spot to overbet

River: ($11.20) K♦ (2 players)
BB bets $32.76 (all-in), Hero ????

Do you call here against a nitty reg? I hadn't seen him make this type of donk shove before.

Hi there mate, now I've read the previous comments and I feel astonished how players might be biased by simple irregular statistics of HUD.
Because villain is 12/6, most of players will naturally consider a fold on the river, and they have some logic on their decision, because these HUD stats seem dangerous.
However, there is a huge gap between VPIP and PFR which can be considered a proof of villain's passive behavior.
We know that because of this same gap villain will call more often than raising, as such beautiful example you brought to us.
I think that more serious tight players as the OP would never be calling in the same spot from the blinds and never donk jamming river.
Also, I assume that OP's stats have a narrower gap between VPIP and PFR, at maximum 4 (correct me if I'm wrong).
Conclusion: poker is not a biased game by any chance or means. We are not playing HUD we are playing our opponent. And that the OP made it through perfectly, congratulations.
Thank you all for your opinions, they were also good to myself to reevaluate my thinking process.

 

[Aballinamion]

I don't think he *should* call if off-suit. But it definitely makes a lot of sense to call if suited.

I would ask if a nitty reg would ever bluff like this.

A NIT is not a regular: it is a poor player biased by thinking that playing unbalanced ranges will lead to profit. A NIT is the reverse of the maniac: this one plays too often and too many hands getting unbalanced tough. The latter plays a few hands also getting unbalanced/predictable.
We do not expect regulars to be predictable or unbalanced.

 

[Funtast]

It´s a 101% fold. Super uggly because you feel robbed by a bandit but yeah. Easy fold.

A NIT is not a regular: it is a poor player biased by thinking that playing unbalanced ranges will lead to profit. A NIT is the reverse of the maniac: this one plays too often and too many hands getting unbalanced tough. The latter plays a few hands also getting unbalanced/predictable.
We do not expect regulars to be predictable or unbalanced.

I think there are "nitty" and "loose" regs. As nitty meaning "VERY tight" in the context with reg. Same as if you say: "Hey dude that was a nitty fold".
But in this case, 12/6/2 stats, that guy is never a reg. It´s a freaking fish. A nit. Free money.

 

[Mac557]

I snap fold this against someone with those stats.

The takeaway for me is your flop sizing: you absolutely should be sizing larger than what you did with such a strong hand (and the rest of your range besides). The logic for not doing so doesn't make much sense, good players won't bother X/R you because they are getting a good price as is, and a bad player would X/R based on things that don't make a lot of sense anyway so you just lose value by going so small IMO.