200NL KK in 3bet pot, interesting flop

[ChuckTs]

AWLLLRINNN!

Sorry, I'll give a serious post later, got lots of stuff going down at the house atm

 

[F Paulsson]

Getting back to the flop (I'm a little late to this thread), there can be no folding on this flop. Maybe if we check and he moves all-in we can consider it, but even then, we're getting 1.3:1, and against AK, we're 1.5:1 to win. Against AQ, we're 1.35:1. The only real trouble hands are sets.

On the other hand, we don't stand much to gain from betting. We're the ones with the nut draw, and any hand that we currently beat is going to be very suspicious of calling a bet on the flop, barring a hand that contains the Qs.

I think WA/WB is a good way to play this hand.

On the turn, we're now ahead of AK/AQ/AJ, as well as 99 and 66, which leaves AA the ONLY hand in villain's probable range that beats us.

We can't really afford not to get value in by now, and there's no card in the deck that is going to make us fold at any point anymore. Build the pot, I say.

 

[ChuckTs]

Well judging by villain's line so far it looks like either a smaller pair or something like KQ which pretty much gave up on the flop, or it's a trap with AA, one of the suited connectors which flopped a flush, or 99/66.

Agree though, we should be building the pot now. See if we can squeek out any value from those scared pairs, maybe a draw with the Qs, or even TP if he decided to slowplay (or exercise pot control) on the flop.

hmm... I'm not even sure AA slowplays here pf and postflop with the drawy board.

Anyways, time for valuetown.

 

[c9h13no3]

Valuetown, agreed. I say the price of the river card is 33$.

 

[blankoblanco]

does anyone think there's any merit at all to checking turn to be tricky? we're basically not afraid of any river card in the deck. there's such a microscopic range of strong hands we could actually check twice on this board, so we might induce a bluff or get called/raised really light on the river

 

[Tygran]

I think the pot will be too big to check/shove the turn at that point. We won't be able to fold out any hands that have us beat (AQ, AJ).

$53 on flop, about $174 behind for each player

So if Villain bets 37$, and we just call, the turn potsize will be 127$, and we'll have $137 left behind. So if we check the turn to him, and he makes any sort of bet it will probably be all in and he will be pot committed even if he doesn't shove. Thus, shoving there doesn't give us any folding equity.

I think if we're going to make an aggressive play at this flop, it needs to come in one of 2 forms:

1) Check-raise all in on the flop
2) Shove all in on the turn, after we've check/called the flop.

At least at that point he will have the ability to fold some mediocre hands. And if we're going to be shoving, I prefer to do it on the flop, since we have the best odds for our draw. I think a case can be made for leading out the turn with a shove, since it looks less like a draw.

Check/calling the flop & then check/folding the turn could also be an option here, but we have a 27% shot at winning this hand against AA, and a 40% chance to win against AK & AQ. Thus, since this pot already has 50$ in it, I'm not all that comfortable throwing away the equity that we have in this pot.

Yeah I agree. If you look I edited my post cause I changed my mind probably while you were typing this.

 

[c9h13no3]

does anyone think there's any merit at all to checking turn to be tricky? we're basically not afraid of any river card in the deck. there's such a microscopic range of strong hands we could actually check twice on this board, so we might induce a bluff or get called/raised really light on the river

I think there's some merit. Since he checked behind you, this does smell more like QxQs, JxJs. By checking, we may be able to make a little bit on the river, especially if a spade comes, but from how he just checked on the flop, it looks like they're content to see the river cheaply.

I think we stand to make more from hands like AX by betting than we do from slowing way, way down. And I'm still not convinced that QQs will fold if we offer him 3:1 on his $.

 

[blankoblanco]

i bet $36, he folded