[200NL] AT flops middle pair, OOP vs. fish.

[F Paulsson]

I get the idea that most of them hinge on him being a passive calling station who we don't want to miss value on the flop from.

Uh. The stuff after the first sentence of this post apparently got dropped, sorry about that. I'll try again:

I get the idea that most of them hinge on him being a passive calling station who we don't want to miss value on the flop from. I don't think you've actually put his range into PokerStove and hit "evaluate," though, which I have. I'm hard pressed to find a scenario where our equity is better than 57% on the flop if we bet and he doesn't fold, and that's assuming that he 3-bets a bunch (so we can remove the stronger part of his range from preflop).

Most scenarios give us 55% equity on this flop, so that's the value we're missing. What other arguments for betting the flop have I not addressed?

 

[c9h13no3]

I think you just hit the nail on the proverbial head for what you're misunderstanding with the idea behind check/calling this flop.

We're not HOPING he will bet wrongly. We're checking because

a) he'll often bet with a worse hand,
b) he'll often check back, keeping the pot smaller

If this was about getting more money into the pot, betting is clearly superior. It's the combination of either keeping the pot small, or, when if it MUST grow, at least have him add some bluffs to his range.

See, here's the thing:

1) I don't think there's going to be a whole lot of pure bluffs in his range. There's many more bottom pair/middle pair/gutshot combinations that I'm afraid he'll check beck.

So if his range has like 60% hands that have 15-30% equity (like bottom pair + GSSD), 20-30% have us crushed, and 10-20% are pure bluffs if we check this board, we're not getting him to put money in the pot with that 60% nearly as often by betting. And that's the vast majority of the range that we can get value from.

2) I think its really spewy to check/call 2 streets, given most turn cards. This just isn't a good board to bluff catch with MPTK. Just about any turn card that's a 7 or higher has potential to improve his hand.

3) Your strategy seems to center on keeping the pot small, but we're just not in a position to control the pot size & I think once 2-3 streets of value go in, our hand just usually isn't ahead of a fish's range.

I also don't plan on betting the turn, since some fish are capable of folding pair + gutshot type hands to the 2nd bigger barrel.

 

[F Paulsson]

When you cite 15-30% equity, are you guessing? 98o has 33% versus us, and that's the low-end of it.

I repeat, it's difficult to find a range for him where we do any better than 55% equity.

 

[c9h13no3]

When you cite 15-30% equity, are you guessing? 98o has 33% versus us, and that's the low-end of it.

I repeat, it's difficult to find a range for him where we do any better than 55% equity.

How is that responding to what I wrote? I made the point that the portion of his range we want him to put money in the pot with is the portion that he's least likely to bet. And you go off saying that 98 has 30% equity, ect.

And yeah, if I could make a list of hands we want him to call with, it'd go like:

KT, 98, 99, T9, AK, ect. where they have anywhere from 3 to 10 outs.

We actually beat those hands. What I don't want him doing is betting 33 and getting me to fold when I'm a 95% favorite, or getting me to call a potsized bet with Qx. And I think we're WAY more likely to make one of those two mistakes I mentioned by check/calling, and he's way more likely to put money in the pot with more of the hands we beat above if we bet.

Yes, this is thin. We probably only have 55% equity against his *whole* range, hence why I'm not crazy about a big bet, or putting money in on more than 1 street.

 

[F Paulsson]

How is that responding to what I wrote? I made the point that the portion of his range we want him to put money in the pot with is the portion that he's least likely to bet. And you go off saying that 98 has 30% equity, ect.

And yeah, if I could make a list of hands we want him to call with, it'd go like:

KT, 98, 99, T9, AK, ect. where they have anywhere from 3 to 10 outs.

We actually beat those hands. What I don't want him doing is betting 33 and getting me to fold when I'm a 95% favorite, or getting me to call a potsized bet with Qx. And I think we're WAY more likely to make one of those two mistakes I mentioned by check/calling, and he's way more likely to put money in the pot with more of the hands we beat above if we bet.

Yes, this is thin. We probably only have 55% equity against his *whole* range, hence why I'm not crazy about a big bet, or putting money in on more than 1 street.

You said:

So if his range has like 60% hands that have 15-30% equity (like bottom pair + GSSD),

And I'm asking where you're getting your numbers from. That's how it's responding to what you wrote.

As per your last sentence, are you bet/folding the flop and giving up if he calls?