M
Marginal
Junior Member
Silver Level
$200 NLHE Full Ring: Live poker: facing a blind Shove of $77 with AJo
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
if we get to the flop with 5 guys its amazing, if we get to the flop raised its amazing, if we get heads up with the blind shove its ok but nothing would have changed that.
so yea id say pretty no brainer.
Trabendo_daze
Rock Star
Silver Level
Okay so I think the math is pretty valid with a couple of issues.
My first one is that the assumption that we realize our equity to its full potential when we go multi-way (hence .34 * 308) is pretty ambitious. We're still going to need to play a pot with AJo OOP and for me that was largely the reason of raising in the first place. I'm just not sure it's equivalent to flipping our hand face-up and running the cards.
Second, the math is a bit off. First, AJo blocks a lot of combos in the top 3.4% of hands. Specifically, it blocks 3 combos of JJ, 3 combos of AA, and 4 combos of AK. Our TT+, AK was 45 hands but now it's 35 (2.6%). Additionally, the probability that 1 or more of 7 people gets one of these hands isn't 7*(2.6%). It's most easily calculated by finding the probability that noone gets one of these hands and subtracting that from 1. So more like (1-(1-.026)^7)=.168. This should actually be adjusted since when one person has a top ten hand it blocks other combos so it's definitely less than 15%. Even so, you had 23.8% for this number and this should change the expectation.
My last issue is that when someone DOES have TT+ your math assumes that we just lose $200 flat out. They could easily call with TT or QQ and we could win with an A on the flop.
Tl;dr I think your assumptions and your math swung it towards the call a bit more than it should have been. Does that make it a raise? No idea. But I'm just not buying those assumptions and that math completely...
My first one is that the assumption that we realize our equity to its full potential when we go multi-way (hence .34 * 308) is pretty ambitious. We're still going to need to play a pot with AJo OOP and for me that was largely the reason of raising in the first place. I'm just not sure it's equivalent to flipping our hand face-up and running the cards.
Second, the math is a bit off. First, AJo blocks a lot of combos in the top 3.4% of hands. Specifically, it blocks 3 combos of JJ, 3 combos of AA, and 4 combos of AK. Our TT+, AK was 45 hands but now it's 35 (2.6%). Additionally, the probability that 1 or more of 7 people gets one of these hands isn't 7*(2.6%). It's most easily calculated by finding the probability that noone gets one of these hands and subtracting that from 1. So more like (1-(1-.026)^7)=.168. This should actually be adjusted since when one person has a top ten hand it blocks other combos so it's definitely less than 15%. Even so, you had 23.8% for this number and this should change the expectation.
My last issue is that when someone DOES have TT+ your math assumes that we just lose $200 flat out. They could easily call with TT or QQ and we could win with an A on the flop.
Tl;dr I think your assumptions and your math swung it towards the call a bit more than it should have been. Does that make it a raise? No idea. But I'm just not buying those assumptions and that math completely...
J
jsh169
Visionary
Silver Level
I don't see anyone flatting here with qs+ jacks and lower possibly. People generally play very straight forward in these spots, I actually like the raise, but the others have got me liking the call more. It is definitely a close spot that is for sure because of your position.
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
We are actually going to realise MORE of our equity if we have the best hand with an SPR of 1.5, position is essentially meaningless here.
yup i did the calc wrong thats just me being lazy, but thats because the simpler method is still basically approximately correct because our action doesnt change depending on how many hands are behind us. leaving the blocker effect out was pure lazyness, ran it with the adjusted number and came out at EV at $-32
so the blocker effect accounts for $9 in EV, way more than i expected it would.
your final issue is a somewhat meaningless one, do you also want me to account for AK flatting our raise and us getting stacking on KJx or Axx? I dont think people are going to be cold calling 66bb almost ever so its a neglible difference.
Trabendo_daze
Rock Star
Silver Level
Alrighty yeah I guess it comes down to the ability to play AJo OOP in a 1.5 SPR pot which I guess is more straightforward than I originally thought.
I still think people are capable of flatting the $200, but this is probably still -EV
I still think people are capable of flatting the $200, but this is probably still -EV
Trabendo_daze
Rock Star
Silver Level
So thinking about this a little more, I realized that this discussion has pretty big implications for various aspects of strategy. Let me know what you think about this next post, it's going to be a little long.
Basically, the pros of raising in this spot do not outweigh the cons of just calling. That is, we gain a little by isolating (the reason for raising), but in doing so we risk a large portion of our stack to one of 7 people who could wake up with a big hand. Our equity increases in isolating the UTG shover, but this gain is outweighed by rather likely prospecting of losing our raise amount.
This begs the question, why do we raise in the first place? Why not just limp AA UTG every time? What factors would change our decision in this specific scenario?
I think three most important factors in this scenario are players behind, anticipated SPR, and previous action.
First, since we have so many players behind, the probability that someone has a premium (or >1 person) is somewhat significant (15%) and will result in us losing our original raise rather frequently. If we are in later position, this situation is more weighted towards a raise.
Second, if we have many callers, our equity against those callers (with wide ranges) is rather high with AJo (34% with reasonable ranges). Given stack sizes and the raise amount, SPR will be low on the flop. I originally did not realize this, but it will be rather easy to realize all of our equity, even OOP. If we anticipate that SPR is low, we can discount the element of position and focus on the true equity of the hand versus other ranges.
Third, in this scenario the blinds contribute the only dead money that is available. If the player were in later position and had a few callers, raising might be more beneficial (depending on the hand) simply because of the added possibility that the callers fold and contribute dead money to the pot. More dead money, more incentive to raise.
I think SPR guides much of the reasoning. By raising with premium hands, we lower SPR and reduce the amount of mistakes we will make postflop. Our preflop equity also approaches our postflop equity. Limping with AA does not accomplish this goal if the SPR is small.
Pros of raising: Reducing the number of callers (and therefore increasing our equity), Picking up dead money, Increasing SPR
Cons of raising: Putting additional stack at risk in the case of reraise, Increasing SPR in a pot that we shouldn't be doing it in
I know this is more complicated than this but it's a start.
Basically, the pros of raising in this spot do not outweigh the cons of just calling. That is, we gain a little by isolating (the reason for raising), but in doing so we risk a large portion of our stack to one of 7 people who could wake up with a big hand. Our equity increases in isolating the UTG shover, but this gain is outweighed by rather likely prospecting of losing our raise amount.
This begs the question, why do we raise in the first place? Why not just limp AA UTG every time? What factors would change our decision in this specific scenario?
I think three most important factors in this scenario are players behind, anticipated SPR, and previous action.
First, since we have so many players behind, the probability that someone has a premium (or >1 person) is somewhat significant (15%) and will result in us losing our original raise rather frequently. If we are in later position, this situation is more weighted towards a raise.
Second, if we have many callers, our equity against those callers (with wide ranges) is rather high with AJo (34% with reasonable ranges). Given stack sizes and the raise amount, SPR will be low on the flop. I originally did not realize this, but it will be rather easy to realize all of our equity, even OOP. If we anticipate that SPR is low, we can discount the element of position and focus on the true equity of the hand versus other ranges.
Third, in this scenario the blinds contribute the only dead money that is available. If the player were in later position and had a few callers, raising might be more beneficial (depending on the hand) simply because of the added possibility that the callers fold and contribute dead money to the pot. More dead money, more incentive to raise.
I think SPR guides much of the reasoning. By raising with premium hands, we lower SPR and reduce the amount of mistakes we will make postflop. Our preflop equity also approaches our postflop equity. Limping with AA does not accomplish this goal if the SPR is small.
Pros of raising: Reducing the number of callers (and therefore increasing our equity), Picking up dead money, Increasing SPR
Cons of raising: Putting additional stack at risk in the case of reraise, Increasing SPR in a pot that we shouldn't be doing it in
I know this is more complicated than this but it's a start.
duggs
Killing me softly
Silver Level
any posted hands that you have in mind?