$200 NLHE Full Ring: combo draw rivers flush, river plan (semi-deep)

[vanquish]

$200 NL HE Full Ring: combo draw rivers flush, river plan (semi-deep)

Villain is a 43/5/1.5 fish over ~100 hands, note stack sizes

What's our river plan? Bet/fold - how big? Bet/call - how big? Check/call or check/raise - how big? Shove?

party poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

SB: $535.20 (267.6 bb)
BB: $184.90 (92.5 bb)
UTG+1: $280.70 (140.4 bb)
UTG+2: $200 (100 bb)
MP1: $238.35 (119.2 bb)
Hero (MP2): $496.55 (248.3 bb)
MP3: $307.70 (153.9 bb)
CO: $213 (106.5 bb)
BTN: $200 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP2 with 9

T

2 folds, MP1 raises to $8, Hero calls $8, MP3 calls $8, 4 folds

Flop: ($27) 4

J

8

(3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $16, MP3 calls $16, MP1 folds

Turn: ($59) 2

(2 players)
Hero bets $32, MP3 calls $32

River: ($123) 5

(2 players)

 

[The Shrog]

Bet and try yo get paid by 99/1010?

 

[vanquish]

so if i'm trying to get paid by 99 and TT i wanna make a small bet?

 

[bob_tiger]

I think I'm just shoving this hoping to get payed off by a horribly played over pairs or sets or two pairs.

 

[kleitches]

I think I'm just shoving this hoping to get payed off by a horribly played over pairs or sets or two pairs.

Hmm, I don't see him having an overpair on this board if he's just going to flat pf. Honestly since his range is so wide and he's so passive I think he could have Jx type hands or flush draws. I think I'd just bet medium sizish since I don't think he calls a shove with a lone pair and if he has a bigger flush and shoves you can fold. $70 river bet ftw.

 

[trewtrew]

villians is loose and probably not folding a hand like KJ or QJ which is what i put him on from the hand description. I would bet $80-90 on the river for value here.

 

[WossaPotOddz]

I agree with previous 2 posts. His range is wide as hell and he's more than likely holding something weak, jacks a plenty.

Bet/call $70

 

[vanquish]

so everyone likes bet/calling?


or is bet/fold a legit option as well?

 

[kleitches]

I said bet/fold dood. If he shoves ur ****ed.

 

[Deco]

I'd bet/call
I'd be potting it as well.

I can see the merit in bet/folding, its a very marginal decision.
I like sleeping at night so I call.
The combination of weaker flushes horrificly played sets/two pairs and utter bluffs that may raise this river make me call, but oh so bearly.

I could be wrong.

 

[WossaPotOddz]

Bet/call is mighty marginal come to think of it. If he shoves the set it's the worst played set in the history of ever, baby flushes.........there's not a great deal to choose from really, 67 and 64.

If you value bet $70-80 then every hand he called the turn with will call the river. Then you're left calling $180 into $440 if he shoves.....ugh.

Villain is a fish, he can't shove anything other than a flush on that river and the likelihood it's a smaller flush is next to nothing. If he bluff shoves then good for him and his nutty suicide mentality but it's gotta be so rare it can't really be factored into his range.

I change to b/f $80, the assortment of shite he called the turn with he snap calls the river too so $80 gets you a nice sized pot most of the time. If he shoves then it's a bit poo but...meh.