Papier24;4h039395 said:
How do you want to balance his betting range on this board ?
Donk betting here is as exploitative line as it gets, there is no need for balancing. You just trust them to make enough mistakes this to be profitable.
If we would want to balance, I would guess we should also donk with small pairs, as was assumed by villain. Also balanced by the fact that 200NL is a mad house ( I have heard, never seen) and flops like this are donked with Ax for protection and 54 suited because it’s almost a straight. Granted I made this part up, but Bean said that 2NL has similar feel and they do that there. Regardless this happens so few times per year that whole idea of balancing lines is totally not needed.
If villains are good then this probably would be different story, so we agree on that, I would guess though that they are relatively good vs other players on the table.
That board is so hard to make CB though with air 4 way and 26bb in the middle. If we check the probability that over cards hits because no-one bets is close of maximum value 30%. Can we get away with TT if PFR gets sticky? I would believe we don’t give 3streets, but 2, that said we would also call 2 streets? About same result both ways. The difference being that at least 50% of the time betting was for value. So 50% of time we made profit, 50% of time we break even.
If we would be exploited: PFR would raise his Ax we would fold best hand (I don’t think many players are capable to this, not sane one at least). I don’t think he can exploit us by just calling AA. We would go for 2 streets both ways. That said would we able to fold TT on the turn if he still bets? Maybe we would be, and in this case we should not donk.
