ChuckTs
Legend
Silver Level
Another note...I have no idea how you came to this conclusion :/
For one, our flatting range vs utg is going to be like %10-ish, which actually solidifies your point that this flop is good for us and bad for him. Unopened PFR =/= flatting range vs an utg open.
When that's the case, cbetting is NOT standard with your air hands - I often c/f this flop without any backdoors or even with the weaker backdoors if villain likes to get aggro in single raised pots.
Think about it - villain (btn, that is) flats:
-suited connectors: some of which got a FD on the flop, others have hit some type of pair+, the rest missing
-pairs,: which typically don't fold to cbets, the stronger of which don't fold to barrels on low cards, especially if they turn an open ender
-overcards: really not that many. Offsuit, we have maybe AQ and KQ. Suited, we have something like 89s+, maybe QTs or even KJs+. Some of those hit flush draws, others fold.
How much of btn's range is folding to a cbet, let alone a double barrel?
This guy is value betting/has a flush draw pretty much every single time he bets turn, and TT's equity sucks vs that range.
JusSumguy
Chipmonger
Silver Level
I agree, the fold is right. And I wouldn't think of saying anything to ChuckT other than thank you.
However, I have run into quite a few situations where the agro villian has AK/AQ and keeps driving it hard with a board like that.
Their logic is that a called PF raise indicates a weak A and they feel they are still ahead. They figure that even if you hit your weak kick, they can push you off it by representing an over pair. Aggro players have learned that they can get a lot more info from a big bet than a 2bet. Thus they barrel the turn.
There seems to be a lot of that around nowadays. Especially at the bigger buy ins.
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However, I have run into quite a few situations where the agro villian has AK/AQ and keeps driving it hard with a board like that.
Their logic is that a called PF raise indicates a weak A and they feel they are still ahead. They figure that even if you hit your weak kick, they can push you off it by representing an over pair. Aggro players have learned that they can get a lot more info from a big bet than a 2bet. Thus they barrel the turn.
There seems to be a lot of that around nowadays. Especially at the bigger buy ins.
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ChuckTs
Legend
Silver Level
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.667% 53.10% 00.57% 2056 22.00 { 55+, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, QcTc, QsTs, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 9d8d, 9h8h, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 46.333% 45.76% 00.57% 1772 22.00 { TcTs }
Still a fold, even though including it is pretty silly since most aren't barreling AK/AQ as a standard. Turn fold is standard. You're remembering the few times you fold and see the random DB bluff rather than all those times you've patted yourself on the back when he has JJ+/sets.
U
Ubercroz
Visionary
Silver Level
Not to belabor the point, but what conclusion did I badly come to that you are referring to? Not being defensive I was just honestly confused.
and are you saying that on the button we are calling around 10% of hands when we are on the button? I realize we should be calling tighter than we raise on the button, but 10% seems pretty tight.
Essentially you're saying is: we can't call because the hands that raise into us there are a pretty strong. and when we are not beat flat out they are overs with a flushdraw.
As much as I recognize that there is still a piece of me (I guess just the call station in me) that wants to make this call. I guess this is just somethign I need to work on.
Thanks for the input, I know ChuckTs is a solid consistent player, so I appreciate your time.
ChuckTs
Legend
Silver Level
In the moment I probably get sticky w/JJ but our equity still isn't good enough to call. But calling 3 streets, even if river blanks, is definitely not my standard. Queens I can't fold, esp since if I flatted with them pf I intended to do so by getting to more showdowns than normal for obv reasons.
Sorry I wasn't clear...loosely paraphrasing you here, this is the line of thought i got from your post:
1) "Flop is good for our range and bad for his." This means he should be cbetting a stronger, tighter range on the flop. Agreed.
2) "He should be barreling a wide range on that turn." Your wording gives me the impression that you think the turn is a good barreling card, ie with air, which it is exactly the opposite of. That's the 'conclusion' I was referring to.
Open pokerstove and start punching in all the hands you would play OTB vs an UTG raise. If it's anything over like %15 of hands then you've got a pretty big leak. Most of the winning regs I know get well under the %10 CC line. Just checked and I'm at around %8 for my last ~100k hands.