This is a discussion on $2 NLHE Full Ring: Is this a correct fold? within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00,
re: Poker & $2 NLHE Full Ring: Is this a correct fold?
It is an easy call I do not see how to lose with a set of 5 in this hand and it is very simple to explain, with 99 he should have made a 3 bet he only beats you with 77 because I do not think he is going to call with one hand like 6-8 or 3-6 to a raise of UTG + 1 for me an easy call.
I would often fold pairs under 77 at full ring cash games in early position. Very difficult to play OOP if you don't hit a set against often several players in the pot. So fold pre-flop
Post-flop: Since it is 2NL it is a big chance you are beat here since the population calls with all kinds of shit just to see a flop. But very few players are balanced between bluff and value - especially on a wet board like this with straight possibilities.
And they don't often 3-bet a pair of 99 PF (I wouldn't either from BB - and often not at all against an open from UTG+1).
So like all things in poker you must have a read to make the best decision. Some players never bluff big several streets at 2NL and some players bluff a lot.
Against a passive player it is a clear fold - and against an aggressive player it is a clear call.
But forget balance at 2NL if they aren't a regular from some poor country that tries to play correct poker.
A few things about the hand:
1. On this flop half-pot bet is much less effective than a bigger size (75%+), because the board connects with BB's range really good and therefore it just makes sense to bet with a polarized range for a large size.
Also betting small doesn't allow you to stack him with 3 bets without overbetting.
2. On the turn there are tons of hands he could be check/raising us with that we're ahead of. 54s, 64s, 74s, 9c8c, 76s - all are reasonable turned two pairs and combo draws that may want to raise here.
Therefore jamming the turn is also a fine play, as you will likely get calls from a bunch of worse hands.
3. The thing about the river is that there are no hands improved that can now beat you. Yes, you're behind 99, 77 and 86s (which can be somewhat discounted since villain didn't raise the flop), but that's it.
Realistically your hand looks like an overpair, so your opponent is likely to jam with 74s, 97s, 54s (5 combos). You need about 30% equity to call, and you beat 33% of his value range (that is if we assume that he always traps flop with 2pair+). Add the possibility of bluffing with some clubs/combo draws, and calling the river prints money.
Yea, cant fold this river. Why not 3 bet rip this turn? He could have hands like 7c6c that can never fold and end up missing vs our set. We don't have a sample on V yet but population tendencies dictate 63 and 68 are less likely than all the two pair, under sets, and combo draws, or even a naked flush draw that floated flop.
You could just fold this, but at 2NL, where a lot of players are calling stations, and few 3-bet, this is probably an ok open, if you play postflop well. But if you are going to fold a set on a relatively safe board, then I much prefer to get out now, while its free.
You need to get some more money in this pot. Either a very large bet, like someone suggested, or if CO was an aggressive player even a check-raise.
Just get it in. You lose to 99, 77, 86 and 63, but if he can have 63, then he can also have 94, 74 or 54, that turned two pair. And if he is slowplaying 99, 77 and 86 on the flop, then he is certainly also slowplaying 97, so he has at least one hand for value, that we beat. If he has a straight, we at least have 10 outs, and if its a set over set, its just a cooler. Such situations by the way are part of the reason, why we dont HAVE to always play 55 from early position.