$2 NLHE 6-max: Should I bet on the river? What size do you prefer?

[fhruhrhit]

did I scared more than necessary?

pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/424GncCYy

UTG (Hero): $3.86 (193 bb)
MP: $2.85 (143 bb)
CO: $2.36 (118 bb)
BU: $0.84 (42 bb)
SB: $2.22 (111 bb)
BB: $2.40 (120 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with A♠ J♦
Hero raises to $0.05, 4 players fold, BB calls $0.03

Flop: ($0.11) Q♣ T♥ K♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.11, BB calls $0.11

Turn: ($0.33) 9♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.32, BB calls $0.32

River: ($0.97) K♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $0.97 (Rake: $0.03)

Showdown:
UTG (Hero) shows A♠ J♦ (a straight, Ten to Ace)
(equity - Pre-Flop: 30%, Flop: 92%, Turn: 97%, River: 100%)

BB shows J♣ J♥ (a straight, Nine to King)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 70%, Flop: 8%, Turn: 3%, River: 0%)

UTG (Hero) wins $0.94

 

[fundiver199]

I would only really expect a river bet to get called by a J or better, but he can have 6 KJ, 9 QJ, 3 JJ, 9 JT, 9 J9 = 36 combos. His boats are 6 KQ, 6 KT, 6 K9, 3 QQ, 3 TT = 24 combos. Seems like a perfect spot to bet-fold. Go to around half pot to leave yourself enough room to fold to a raise. However given that you are only good against the part of his range, which continue, 3 out of 5 times, checking back was not a big mistake. If you have problems bet-folding, it is for sure less bad than bet-calling and paying off a boat. Also if he is able to check-jam as a bluff with a hand like QT, Q9 or T9, then checking back is fine. But most players at 2NL dont have that move in them.

 

[beginnerbot]

I would consider a large bet size or jamming the river.


It's unlikely your opponent has a full house. BB shouldn't have KK or QQ because those are 3bets preflop. BB shouldn't have 99 because that is folded on the flop. BB shouldn't have much two pairs that turned into river boats because those folded on the turn.

Your opponent will have a lot of Jx straights especially pair + J: J8s+, and JJ. Many of the AJ would have check-raised river. The goal is put Jx straights in the most uncomfortable spot possible and that is accomplished with a large bet.

 

[Sidetracked]

For that K to have given villain a full house, he would have already had a set or 2 pair, which would have probably raised the flop.

I think betting 2/3 pot on the river would have been a good size, and at $2 NL would almost certainly have been called by some worse hands.

 

[300HPGOD]

I dont think the villain ever has pocket Queens plus here since most 2nl players would raise that and not just flat from the BB with it ( I would say they wouldnt have JJ either but as this hand shows, I dont know it all). Calling your pot sized bet would also make me think they did not smash this flop as they should see your bet size as strength and if they have a 2 pair plus hand they most likely would be raising it on the flop. The turn brings 4 to a straight and villain calls pot sized again. Unless they are a call station this would signal to me (depending on how long they took to make that call) that they are not afraid of the straight. If they arent afraid of the straight along with the fact that calling pre means they have a heavy broadway range I would be putting them on a hand like KJ, QJ, J10. With that being said I dont think we can check on the river since most good players (who knows if they are or arent at 2NL) will probably not get too frisky on the river and would check the hands I mentioned. That leaves a lot of value on the table. It also brings up the question of what are you doing then if you check and they bet into you large? I think betting is the way to go on the river and I think I would go somewhat small normally but you potted twice. Not sure how that will look to go pot, pot, 1/3rd. Would look scared to me if I was the villain in this hand. I think given that, I would go somewhere just over a half pot. Tough decision if they raise because they could raise with a Jx which you beat and they could also raise with a boat.

This is really not as fun of spot as we would like with the top straight. I dont hate any action taken here because I think you could back them all up. Jamming would get any Jx to call and would get max value. Betting small protects yourself while betting half is kind of a medium play. Checking gets you to avoid a tough decision if you are raised but does give up value when you are good. I still think checking is probably the least best option followed by jamming, then betting small and then betting in the half pot range.

 

[fundiver199]

BB shouldn't have much two pairs that turned into river boats because those folded on the turn.

At 2NL a lot of players are beginners or level 1 thinkers, which makes it very dangerous to assume, they are able to fold something as nominally strong as two pair.

 

[fundiver199]

Calling your pot sized bet would also make me think they did not smash this flop as they should see your bet size as strength and if they have a 2 pair plus hand they most likely would be raising it on the flop.

That would be a bit of an overplay though, when AJ and J9 flopped a straight. And by the same token they might also have raised a J on the turn, in which case what are we then even trying to get called by? My point here is just, that we should be a little carefull about narrowing people down to much, and especially in a non-linear way.

 

[arenaci]

I think a river value bet was missed. At least a half sized bet would get a call by worse and if villain shoves you have a nice room to fold.

 

[arenaci]

Actually, when I think again correct answer here should be to bet/fold small. Something like 1/3rd of the pot. As fundiver counted the combos, villain's full houses are not a huge part of his range. If Villain does shove over the value bet, we can probably narrow his range to mostly full houses and hit that fold button.

 

[jaworek1405]

Hello, I play this hand a little differently, I play another raise pre flop and other bets on the flop and on the turn. I think that bet for pot size on the flop is a little mistake, because we have the nuts on the flop and when you play that big bet on the flop opponents usually will fold his hand. So I prefer raise pre flop 3x, later on the flop I prefer bet at least 50% of the pot, some 50%-67% of the pot. On the turn I also prefer a little different bet, a little less than pot and later on the river will be smaller pot and on the river I think we can risk and bet any bet for value. As played - you showed your opponent that you have something strong, but when you play that those big bets on the flop and on the turn you also probably think that opponent has something strong. On the river the board is paired and possible is a full house, I also probably would think that in this situation opponent can have a full house, so I prefer smaller bets and playing a little smaller pot, but with a value bet on the river. If opponent would play check/raise on the river, we have smaller pot and we can think about call his check / raise on the river, because only one hand beat us - a full house and then sometimes it will be a cooler situation. GL

 

[300HPGOD]

That would be a bit of an overplay though, when AJ and J9 flopped a straight. And by the same token they might also have raised a J on the turn, in which case what are we then even trying to get called by? My point here is just, that we should be a little carefull about narrowing people down to much, and especially in a non-linear way.

You may be right but I am not sure that would be overplaying their hand to be raising KQ here. There arent may times when hero has a straight though, you mention AJ and J9 which hero happens to have one but it is not likely from villains perspective, especially J9 with there being a pre flop raise. If I was playing this hand and I was villain I would not be putting the hero on AJ since most players when they flop the nuts dont bet pot (whether betting pot is right or wrong is a different discussion). If I am villain and this hand plays the way it does and I have KQ I am putting hero on something they like a lot but mostly it will be worse than my two pair if thats what I had. If they were to have AJ as in this instance then I might lose less by raising now and making the opponent (hero in this case) show their hand strength. Especially if on the flop as villain I think hero could have a lot of broadway Jx type hands that hit a pair and a draw and wont fold to my raise. So I do disagree that playing KQ with a raise on the flop if we are villain is overplaying our hand.

You ask then what do we expect to get called by? I am interpreting this question as if we are hero and they dont have two pair what do we expect to be called by? My answer there would be the Jx broadway hands that made a straight, maybe Kx type hands like K8 if villain is capable of calling a small raise from the BB with them (K8 ish suited could fit here). I said in my original post that we bet pot on the turn with 4 to a straight and the villain calls as if they dont care about the straight. That does not rule out two pair that hit a boat but I think it does diminish the chances of that and increase the chance of the Jx hand that just made the straight. Betting on the river is really targeting those Jx broadway hands. Like I said in my original post I dont know it all as I can only range them as best I can with what I see in the hand. I would have never ever put them on JJ.

 

[fundiver199]

You may be right but I am not sure that would be overplaying their hand to be raising KQ here. There arent may times when hero has a straight though, you mention AJ and J9 which hero happens to have one but it is not likely from villains perspective, especially J9 with there being a pre flop raise. If I was playing this hand and I was villain I would not be putting the hero on AJ since most players when they flop the nuts dont bet pot (whether betting pot is right or wrong is a different discussion). If I am villain and this hand plays the way it does and I have KQ I am putting hero on something they like a lot but mostly it will be worse than my two pair if thats what I had. If they were to have AJ as in this instance then I might lose less by raising now and making the opponent (hero in this case) show their hand strength. Especially if on the flop as villain I think hero could have a lot of broadway Jx type hands that hit a pair and a draw and wont fold to my raise. So I do disagree that playing KQ with a raise on the flop if we are villain is overplaying our hand.

You ask then what do we expect to get called by? I am interpreting this question as if we are hero and they dont have two pair what do we expect to be called by? My answer there would be the Jx broadway hands that made a straight, maybe Kx type hands like K8 if villain is capable of calling a small raise from the BB with them (K8 ish suited could fit here). I said in my original post that we bet pot on the turn with 4 to a straight and the villain calls as if they dont care about the straight. That does not rule out two pair that hit a boat but I think it does diminish the chances of that and increase the chance of the Jx hand that just made the straight. Betting on the river is really targeting those Jx broadway hands. Like I said in my original post I dont know it all as I can only range them as best I can with what I see in the hand. I would have never ever put them on JJ.

My point was just, that if we go down the hand range funnel and narrow Villains range based on postflop action, then we should be carefull to not only look for reasons to remove those hands, which we lose to. Sure its possible, he would have raised KQ on the flop, but by the same token its also possible, he would have raised Jx on the turn. And of course its not about, what is good or bad, or what we would have done. Its about, what we think, an unknown player at 2NL might have done.

With that being said I do agree, that as the hand played out, Hero should be good most of the time, and Hero could have gone for a small river bet with intentions to fold to a check-jam. As you say, a fish might call down with a ragged KX, which rivered trips. Or even a counterfeited two pair, if he is really bad. At 2NL there are so many complete beginners, and you have to give them a chance to make a bad call.

 

[Viparida]

I think a river value bet was missed. At least a half sized bet would get a call by worse and if villain shoves you have a nice room to fold.

I agree. I think that half of the pot there would be standard, even though i don`t condemn your check tha much it was reasonable.

 

[fhruhrhit]

Thank you for all the advice.
The fact that the opponent did not 3bet was a serious hint.
It was a big mistake to miss this.

I think I should have made a small value bet.(and fold if he shove)