This is a discussion on $2 NLHE 6-max: QJ flops TP, I XR on flop then I'm lost within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 21/16/1
PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
BTN: $0.88 (44 bb)
Hero (SB): $7.60 (380 bb)
BB: $2.03 (101.5 bb)
River:($2.68, 2 players) Hero checks, BB bets $0.69 and is all-in, Hero ?
70 hands on V so at least VPIP/PFR should be a bit more accurate. He has 3bet of 6.1 and he almost never folds to a steal (35%). I steal, he 3bets, I figure I'm ahead of his resteal range so I flat.
I flop TP, I'm not the aggro so I check, he bets (as usual since his cbet is 80% and the flop is very dry). No Idea why I check raise 2.3x. I have no read on him but I noticed the population doesn't like XR and often folds... This time he doesn't so I figure he has a J or 88-TT. He could have JJ+ of course but when I check raise, I think he reraise with them so at least I can mark those off and I'm left with AT-AK, KJ, QJ, JTs, 88-TT, maybe 87s.
Here's where I'm lost... I'm not going to pretend that I was able to range him... I had about 15 seconds to take a decision because zoom is absolutely crazy with the timebank... I figured that I'm blocking a lot of J combos on his end, he might still be here with AT and calling for GS + 1 over. I am totally beat by AK, 87 has an OESD or a monster draw. I felt like I was doing the right thing in betting.
Equilab tells me that if he's here with 87, KJs, QJs, AT+ I'm 51% ahead... this is razor thin. I also commit myself pretty hard with this bet so I don't think it was ok.
I gotta ask, how do you play those pots ? I suppose some of you are in the micros right now and are also getting 3bet left and right by Vs all the time, do you always fold unless you have a very strong hand ? V stats kinda lean toward a TAG.so I think the bet was to rep a K and get him to fold since I really thought he was there with a J at the time. I tried 4 betting a bit wider but holy cow this is buttclenchingly tense and it usually doesn't achieve very much anyways. On 10k hands in zoom NL2 most of the time I 4bet, I get either called or I get shoved into, and well, with AQ or AK, it's hard to stack yourself pf even in a steal situation. Am I just running bad and when I raise, villain always has something ?
Anyways, any input is appreciated, I think I played this one badly even though the result was a win since he had ATo and he looks like a TAG but acts like a CS.
I wouldn't pay too much attention to that small sample. At least you need 500 hands of your opponent, so that the information is a little more solid.
Going to the hand, it seems to me that the flop raise is very small and possibly at that size you represent bluffs like: 78; 9T and QT. Since they are scales that the villain can comfortably check with J7-JT when he knows that he blocks your most powerful bluffs (AQ; AK). QT is the least likely bluff for your range because like AQ and AK, they should raise a OTF larger size. But at the end of the day, any combo of both value and bluff should raise a much larger size, especially when we are super deep and we are in a blind duel.
On the turn the hero bet is still small, but this size makes more sense here because now we only beat AQ, while the rest of the hands have little fold equity and we really want to keep all these AQ combos in range V. In addition of some flush draw combos that BB could have OTT and we don't block.
If we have this thought as played, I love the river check, because now we keep the V range intact, while our call is an automatic click taking into account the price we get in this spot.
70 hands is just 70 hands but it is enough to still pay attention to. 21/16/6.1 are pretty reg stats with 6.1 not being a maniacal 3 bet %. I like the raise obviously from the SB by you although I think you need to go bigger or you will be playing a lot of hands out of position at best or be in these spots at worst. Also remember that this is a 6 handed table where people should be looser (even if it is zoom) where everyone folded to us in the SB so there should be better cards of the deck hitting SB and BB than normally would be the case. I dont love calling the 3 bet here as I think you are going against a dominating hand too often and will be out of position. Villain seems stats wise ( I know 70 hands) like they are good and with other factors like high probability of no Ax hands before us that I think I just fold here and move. Even if we have the better hand it could be hard to play this one out of position.
As played on the flop I dont check raise as you did. I get why you did it with your reasoning of in zoom so many fold to check raises and thats good thinking but if you know that quirk and then get called that means the call has to mean more to you than normal. On top of that if you are going to check raise there it needs to be bigger as you already pointed out. Check raising though in a 3 bet pot with a 100 BB effective stack really should keep us in the hand to the end which with our holding I am not loving. I would much prefer to call the flop and keep any hands in they have that are worse. Yes I would hate A and K turns but I at least have one overcard protected.
As played on the turn I think you have to end it here or keep going with the intention of going all the way. You got yourself into this by check raising in a 3 bet pot which unless very deep will semi commit you at the least. You also have some doubt since your check raise was so small that was villain calling due to price or calling based on strength? No way to know that right now. My thinking on this hand is to just check here cut my losses. I would fully expect a bet by villain and unless it is super super small then I am out and would make a mental note for future hands not to make this same mistake. Just to call the flop or check raise larger if you are going that route.
As played on the river all you have now is a bluff catcher so I like the check and as expected villain puts it in. The K pairing is a great card for us so given that and the price I would make the call but I still dont like how we got here and put ourselves in this spot.