$2 NLHE 6-max: Possible to fold this river?

[braun_kan]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 5 players

UTG: $2.23 (112 bb)
CO: $2.59 (130 bb)
BU: $2.00 (100 bb)
SB (Hero): $4.00 (200 bb)
BB: $2.45 (123 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with K♣ K♠
1 fold, CO raises to $0.14, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to $0.42, 1 fold, CO calls $0.28

Flop: ($0.86) T♣ J♦ T♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.21, CO calls $0.21

Turn: ($1.28) 6♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $0.36, CO calls $0.36

River: ($2) 9♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.23, Hero?

Villain Stats: 56/29 AF 0 (61 hands)

7bb open raises are standard for this villain. I can't say for sure but I expect their range is decently wide even when they call my 3-bet.


The 1st rule of the microstakes is that river raises by passive rec players are almost never a bluff but idk how I can fold here?

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
7 BB raise certainly looks wild, and while your 3-bet is already very large, its actually only 3X, and out of position I think, you should be going larger for value. This guy is just a recreational player, and he is not thinking in big blinds. If you make it 50-60c here, he is still going to call you with almost the same range of hands, and building a larger pot makes it easier to stack off profitable postflop.

Flop
Not the best flop, since its paired, and this kind of player can certainly have a T. So I kind of like your small bet sizing now. If he starts raising you, you will need to make some decision, and maybe you can actually get away at some point.

Turn
6h changes nothing, so the situation is still the same. I am feeling pretty good about your hand, since he did not raise the flop, so I might size a little bit larger now, but its a small detail.

River
9h still does not really change that much. It does bring in KQ, which was an OESD, but you block half the combos of that hand, so this is less worrysome, that if you had AA. And even he is a maniac, I dont think, he is hanging in there with Q8 or 87, or at least these hands are not very likely.

Also if this player had stats like 56 / 9, then I would be a lot more worried about his river bet, and maybe I would at least give consideration to folding. But against a 56 / 29, he is going to have to show it to me, and if he happen to have it this time, then good for him. I expect to see enough JX, QQ, busted diamonds and just random nonsense like A5 offsuit to make a profitable call here.

 

[Hermus]

I agree with fundiver here. When I went over the hand on the bus my first instinct was to fold the river. Looking at a fairly plausible range for villain (TPTK+ and missed flush draws) it's a very obvious call. Even the very grim and unlikely scenario that he's only value betting with TPTK+ it's a profitable call in isolation (assuming he plays AJo like this).

 

[liuouhgkres]

Shove the river, you will get called Jx often enough to make it profitable.

 

[liuouhgkres]

As played, always call that river bet.

 

[gustav197poker]

In my experience at 2NL I have seen players who open with huge sizes. At first I did not understand it, but later I realized that they were regular players of those stakes and that they did it to exploit the opponents who always called preflop.
Of course there are also beginner players who for them the size of the opening is irrelevant.
But whether this villain belongs to the 2NL group of regulars or they are casual players, you have a chance to play for stacks preflop.
Yes I know, that sounds pretty aggressive. But the villain is the one who invites us to action first.
As played our 3-bet is a bit small because we have to compensate for the fact that we have no position. Your size could be applied some times being in BB, when we are HU. But mostly we are have to look for a polarizing size from the blinds.
On the flop I advocate checking rather than a small bet. Obviously the standard line is to bet cbet on the flop, but there is so much money invested in the pot that it doesn't really change too much, considering that we are not too deep as V's effective stack now contains approximately 110 bb.
By checking the flop we are also inducing an aggressive villain to bet on us, so if that happens we should play the stack since we are ahead of: AQs or QQ, while we are dead with: TT and JJ. (AA is highly unlikely, as a regular or occasional 2NL player should jam preflop).
The turn is the most important point for me in this sequence. Your hand is blocking major bluffs like QKs and AKs who 3-bet preflop. So when V behaves passive in postflop I put everything back here, if not I played it on the previous street. The reason is that our V did not show much interest in the diamonds on the board, so we could represent a flush draw here.
As we played the turn, our range looks weak. We really should show a little more action at some point in the hand. Let's remember the sequence: from preflop our 3-bet was smaller. We bet little on the flop and on the turn. Here OTR a villain will not be afraid that we have AA, because most likely we will never have it. But V won't be too happy to push with a marginal hand either, unless it's a marginal combination that has improved, like full house of nines.
Really V range should now only have a lot of TX's and almost zero bluffs on this texture.
Greetings.

 

[300HPGOD]

Against a 56/29 player that has 7x'd pre we can make a large raise here pre flop and still get called which is the desired outcome. They might even spaz out here which is invited based on the strength of our holding. I would probably raise here (especially from the SB) to more around 4x villains bet compared to 3x. If they are crazy enough to 7 x pre with those stats then they probably arent going anywhere. Plus it sets up the hand easier for us to get it all in on the turn which makes life a little easier for us in the sense we wont have to sweat as many draws getting there on the river and then facing a decision.

With this flop villain could have a 10 but they could also be a loose player with any two cards. If they are not any two carding 7x then their 10x holdings are few since what 10x hands would someone who is thinking raise 7x pre with other than 1010 (I would never 7x pre but you get what I am trying to say). That means they probably dont have 10x or are so wide that 10x is unlikely. Therefore on the flop I would bet an amount that I could jam turn and still get called by worse paired hands. As played I like a sizing that is larger since if they have nothing they are potentially folding anyway and if they have 10x its so disguised that we probably will not be really apt to folding given villain is 56/29. Therefore we are more than likely going with this hand so I like an amount on the flop like 50 cents which sets up a turn jam. Since there are also two diamonds out it makes it more enticing to me anyway to try to get it in by the turn.

As played on the turn its either a big jam which at this point I guess nothing is calling except a 10 or we could bet bet turn river to get in. If they have 10x in this hand then they are just stacking a player with my mentality but I would take that chance. Jx will call off here a lot, especially a loose player like this and who knows, maybe even some smaller pairs from crazy loose opponents call off here. So as played, I would go with a bet bet line turn and river to get it in.

As far as the river is concerned you check which my guess was you were checking to entice a bluff so in that case you got what you wanted and to me its a fairly snap call. Again if they have 10x here then they just do and you move on but a lot of the time when you check that river villains like this will be going all in with a a decent amount of holdings.