$2 NLHE 6-max: Over pair vs. Turn Re-Raise

[braun_kan]

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
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UTG: $2.29 (115 bb)
MP: $1.87 (94 bb)
CO: $2.06 (103 bb)
BU (Hero): $2.14 (107 bb)
SB: $3.05 (153 bb)
BB: $1.96 (98 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with K♣ K♠
2 players fold, CO raises to $0.05, Hero 3-bets to $0.18, 2 players fold, CO calls $0.13

Flop: ($0.39) 8♥ 5♦ J♠ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.29, CO calls $0.29

Turn: ($0.97) T♥ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.48, CO raises to $1.59 (all-in), Hero calls $1.11


Villain Stats: 32/25/2 (441 hands) Fold to 3-bet: 58

Villain is loose and sticky pre-flop but post flop he is passive(?) (AF of 2).
After the re-raise I am putting villain on 7 combos that I beat (AhJh, QQ) though he may have some AJo too and perhaps he doesn't have QQ, and 6 combos that I lose to (JJ, TT). If he has any AhKh, AhQh as bluffs then I am ahead of those too. It seems like a coin flip at best if I'm being generous, but I think in the NL2 meta turn re-raises scream strength so I guess it's probably more profitable to fold here in the long run? Villain only as an AF of 2 as well which makes me think he is less likely overbet jam with a bluff.

 

[gustav197poker]

Against a passive player a big flop bet doesn't help much when the board's texture is a bit dry. At least you want the villain to keep some dominated hands in his range, like A5 and 77 for example. Don't expect a lot of QQ combos in range V, as these should raise the flop at a high frequency, since they are good blockers for a semi bluff like 9Ts, which you might have in your 3-bet range, when you are in the BTN position and in a duel against the CO. AJo could certainly be in the CO range, so you'd be essentially getting value from that hand and V is folding many of dominated hands.
Then on the turn when you continue with your smaller barrel, it is unlikely that a passive player would have floated with your big cbet with a hand like Q9s. I also do not see possible in CO, a random combo like 79s, as this player fold to 3-bet 58% in a sample of 440 hands, which possibly rules out 100% of suitable combinations with gap, in a pot of 3bets when he is OOP.
Maybe the V decides jam OTT some flush draw combo, but those are really few combos, maybe 3 at most (AJ; KJ; QJ).
So the most expected in V range are sets that beat us (maybe from the flop). So it is closer to fold on the turn. I think a big bet on the flop is not profitable when we have a passive villain.
Greetings.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Like the 3-bet and the sizing as well.

Flop
In a 3-bet pot we generally dont have to use such large C-bet sizing. By going smaller you keep his range wider and get value from hands, that have very little equity.

Turn
Its not the greatest turn card, because it does connect with the board and therefore his range. You can still beat QQ, JX, 99, T9, 98, but TT, JT, T8, Q9 and 97 all just got there and sucked out on you. Its up for debate, how many of these hands, he really have, but I think, the suited combos are at least somewhat represented.

I would actually not hate to see a check back here for pot control. The issue is, that if you bet half pot, like you did, you have essentially committed yourself to the pot. And I am not sure, your hand is quite strong enough, that I want to do that on this particular turn card. When he check-jam, I am not loving it, but you are getting 3:1, so you only need 25% equity. Which mean, that if he is going with QQ and maybe sometimes JX, or if he has any frequenzy of bluffs, you basically have to call.

Conclusion
Bet-folding turn would be really bad, but I think, you could have checked back for pot control and perhaps saved yourself a decent chunk of money that way. And I think, this is an important point. In a 3-bet pot, an overpair is not automatically always a 3-street hand, when the board gets connected and dangerous.

 

[fundiver199]

Villain only as an AF of 2 as well which makes me think he is less likely overbet jam with a bluff.

It can be dangerous to get to carried away with HUD-stats like in this case an AF of 2. AF 2 is pretty much middle of the road, and VPIP/PFR indicate, that this is a pretty loose and aggressive player in general.

So I would not really use the HUD stats to narrow down his range other than removing completely unreasonable hands like J5, which I dont think, a player with these stats will open from CO and then call a 3-bet with. I also dont think, he is slowplaying AA preflop, but QQ can be a reasonable just flat sometimes, and I also think a decent amount of JX and suited connected hands are reasonable for him to show up with.

Finally he is not overbetting. This is a mistake, a lot of people make in situations, where they either raise or get raised. After he called your turn bet, which he need to do before raising, the pot was 1,93$, and his raise was 1,11$. So he is only betting a little over half pot, and you are getting almost 3:1 to make the call.

I said this already in my first reply, but for me the main thing to take away from this hand is, that if we bet the turn for value and only have one standard sized bet left, then we should be happy to get this action, where the opponent jam on us. If we are not happy about that action and consider, if maybe we should fold, then we were not really betting for value, and we should probably not have bet at all.